It was a much better round last week with a few results going more to plan.

It kicked off on Friday with Adelaide and Western Sydney. Adelaide led for most of the match but then let in a lazy goal in the last 10 minutes, to tie the match all up. Adelaide dominated most of the match and should be disappointed only getting one point out of the fixture. That’s two games for two draws, not a great start when both were home games.

Saturday went a lot more to plan, I was keen on both Sydney and Melbourne Victory, and thankfully they both did the right thing by us and each got a win. It wasn’t all easy street though both games were only won in the last 5 minutes, so it was a little nervy, but the right results in the end.

The round finished up on Sunday and it was a split bag, Brisbane got the win over Central Coast, they were always in control, and the result never looked in doubt. Perth were leading early, but Wellington quickly cancelled that goal out, the game looked like it was going to finish 1-1, and then Wellington banged in another goal late in the piece.

It ended up being a slightly profitable week, but it was so close to being a massive one. Hopefully the luck falls more our way this week.
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value:
1st:    Wellington/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
2nd:    Melbourne City – Head to Head – $1.88.
3rd:    Melbourne City/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
4th:    Newcastle/Melbourne Victory – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.13.

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory 

Friday 23 October, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium

Melbourne Victory are back in action on another Friday night, this time they head up the coast to face Newcastle. The Jets were pretty good in my opinion last week, while they did lose; it was to Sydney, who was a big favourite for the match. They also kept Sydney goalless for 88 minutes, until Brosque scored a late one to spoil their party, either way; it was still an ok effort. Melbourne Victory dominated most of their match again Melbourne City, but that didn’t mean it lead to an easy win. They pretty much controlled the first 60 minutes of the game, and in that time went 2-0 up, but the next half an hour was all Melbourne City. It wasn’t long and the game was all tied up, but Victory’s main man Berisha tapped in an easy goal in the dying minutes to give them the win. Even though they are on the road, Melbourne Victory should be able to make it back-to-back wins; they’ve got too many guns for this Newcastle side. Alas my prices match straight up with the prices the bookmakers have gone up with, so there’s no value about either team. On the plus side, people always seem to think Melbourne Victory games have heaps of goals (including the bookies), but this isn’t actually true. Yes, Victory home games have plenty of goals, but when they’re on the road, they are relatively low scoring games. This all boils down to Under 2.5 Goals being great value in this match.

Last 5 games:  
Newcastle        1
Melbourne Victory    1
Draw            3

Head to Head
Rated Price:  
Newcastle        $4.96
Melbourne Victory    $1.79
Draw            $4.16

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $4.50 Bet365, William Hill
Melbourne Victory    $1.80 Bet365
Draw            $3.85 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $3.77
Melbourne Victory    $1.36

Market Price  
Newcastle        $3.32 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory    $1.35 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $1.77
Over            $2.30

Market Price:    
Under            $2.13 Sportsbet
Over            $1.70 Bet365

Value:         Newcastle/Melbourne Victory – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.13.

Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 24 October, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

Brisbane makes the big trip over to New Zealand to face Wellington of Saturday afternoon. The Phoenix pulled the biggest upset of Round 2 when they travelled to Perth and came back home with all three points. They were down early in the match, but quickly managed to pull that goal back. The game then stood as a stalemate for quite some time, until a very late goal from Lia gave them the win, it was good to see them back on course after they went average the week before. Brisbane won their game 2-1 too, although their victory was a little more straightforward. They hosted Central Coast in a match they were expected to win, and after controlling the game for pretty much the whole match, they came away with a deserved win. After Wellington’s big road win last week, I think they can go on with it this week. Back at home they should be even stronger, and Brisbane’s road record isn’t the greatest. While it doesn’t look to be crazy overs, Wellington Head to Head and Draw No Bet both look to be value, I wouldn’t take much less than $2.50 and $1.83 though. The real value in this match looks to be in the Over/Under market, I think this will be a very high scoring match, with 4+ goals a decent chance, so $1.80 for Over 2.5 Goals looks great.

Last 5 games: 
Wellington        2
Brisbane        3
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:  
Wellington        $2.26
Brisbane        $3.36
Draw            $3.85

Market Price:    
Wellington        $2.50 William Hill
Brisbane        $3.10 Bet365
Draw            $3.50 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Wellington        $1.67
Brisbane        $2.49

Market Price    
Wellington        $1.83 William Hill
Brisbane        $2.10 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.59
Over            $1.39

Market Price:    
Under            $2.05 Bet365
Over            $1.80 Unibet

Value:         Wellington/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
Wellington – Head to Head – $2.50.
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.83.

Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 24 October, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium

Last week we had the Melbourne Derby, this week we’ve got the Sydney Derby to enjoy as Western Sydney head to Allianz Stadium to face off with their biggest rival. Sydney are coming off a workman like effort, they played Newcastle, so everyone expected them to win, but you never can be too sure about an away fixture. They managed to squeeze out a win, but they only broke the deadlock in the last 10 minutes of the match, but three points is three points, and that’s all that matters. Western Sydney impressed me last week (even though I wanted Adelaide to win). They went down 1-0 due to an own goal early in the match and were left behind the eight ball for the rest of the match. Very late in the game Mayoral saved the match for Western Sydney, stealing an equaliser, earning them one road point against Adelaide, which is a tough task. Sydney should be able to continue on their way and chalk up another victory against their big rival. There isn’t all that much value in this fixture, the $2.20 at Bet365 for Sydney is just acceptable, but if it drops below that I think I’d be sitting this one out.

Last 5 games:    
Sydney            3
Western Sydney    1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Sydney            $1.97
Western Sydney    $4.21
Draw            $3.94

Market Price:  
Sydney            $2.20 Bet365
Western Sydney    $3.40 Everywhere
Draw            $3.45 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Sydney            $1.47
Western Sydney    $3.14

Market Price  
Sydney            $1.54 Unibet
Western Sydney    $2.47 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.03
Over            $1.97

Market Price:  
Under            $1.91 Sportsbet
Over            $1.90 Bet365

Value:         Sydney – Head to Head – $2.20.

Melbourne City v Central Coast Mariners

Sunday 25 October, 5:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Two teams coming off losses face off on Sunday afternoon as Central Coast head to Victoria to face Melbourne City. Last week Melbourne City had a battle with Melbourne Victory and almost came away with a good result. After going down 2-0, they fought back to tie up it, only to throw it away in the last few minutes. There was a half an hour period that they dominated after the break, if they could play like that for a whole game, they could beat anybody, but they seem to struggle to keep it going for 90 minutes. Brisbane easily held Central Coast last week, but the Mariners were on the road, so that’s not too surprising. They ended up only losing 2-1, but their goal came late in the game, and was more of a consolidation goal than anything else. Melbourne City get a great chance to get their first win of the campaign, matchups don’t get much better than this for them, and if they don’t win they might be struggling all season. Very keen to get on the $1.88 that Unibet have gone up with for Melbourne City, that is tremendous value and one of the best selections of the weekend in my opinion. I reckon they’ll be able to pour on the goals too, so Over 2.5 Goals also looks juicy.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City    0
Central Coast        3
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.48
Central Coast        $7.76
Draw            $5.09

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.88 Unibet
Central Coast        $4.35 Sportsbet
Draw            $3.85 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.19
Central Coast        $6.24

Market Price    
Melbourne City    $1.38 Unibet
Central Coast        $3.37 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.31
Over            $1.43

Market Price:  
Under            $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over            $1.80 Bet365

Value:         Melbourne City – Head to Head – $1.88.
Melbourne City/Central Coast – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.38.

Perth Glory v Adelaide United

Sunday 25 October, 7:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

The weekend finishes up in Perth as Adelaide head over there for the tightest match of the round. Perth were hugely disappointing last week, they hosted Wellington and I thought it was a match that they needed to win, and they couldn’t even manage a draw. They opened the scoring in the first 10 minutes, but didn’t hold that lead for long. Then late in the game they allowed Wellington another goal to leave them empty handed. Adelaide didn’t give their fans much to cheer about it either last week, they were at home to Western Sydney and were a very short priced favourite. They led up to the last 10 minutes of the game and threw it away. They held on to take one point out of the match, but out of a match that they would of really expected all three, that’s not good enough. This game really is a flip of the coin for me, I think Perth should be slight favourites, but it could easily go the other way. Unsurprisingly books can barely split the two either, but the price of Perth is a little tempting, I wouldn’t take any less than the $2.75 though. The main value in this game looks to be the Under 2.5 Goals, I think it will be low scoring, $1.91 is good enough for me

Last 5 games:    
Perth            0
Adelaide        3
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Perth            $2.52
Adelaide        $2.92
Draw            $3.83

Market Price:    
Perth            $2.75 Sportsbet
Adelaide        $2.70 Bet365, William Hill
Draw            $3.40 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Perth            $1.86
Adelaide        $2.16

Market Price  
Perth            $1.95 Sportsbet
Adelaide        $1.95 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $1.65
Over            $2.54

Market Price:    
Under            $1.91 Sportsbet
Over            $1.90 Bet365

Value:         Perth/Adelaide – Under 2.5 Goals – $1.91.
Perth – Head to Head – $2.75.