It was a pretty quiet round last week with three of the five matches ending in draws, which usually doesn’t satisfy anybody’s football appetite, but there was one thing that grabbed headlines, the Melbourne Derby. Melbourne City had been in scintillating form lately against lesser sides, but everyone was eager to see how they would go against their big rivals. They came through the test with flying colours! It might not have been a four goal win like they had done to their opponents lately, but it was still a solid win. They took the game out 2-1 after scoring their goals in the first half an hour. I now have them rated the top team in the league, and I think that’s a deserved rating. Newcastle/Adelaide, Wellington/Sydney and Perth/Western Sydney were the games that ended in draws. The latter two games looked very hard to split, so a draw was probably a fitting result, but out of the first game I think Adelaide should be disappointed. They had been playing well after a very slow start to the season, but they were starting to play really well. Only managing a draw against Newcastle isn’t good enough though so it’s back to the drawing board for them. The other game of the round was Brisbane and Central Coast. While it wasn’t the easiest for Brisbane, having to travel and all, they still got the job done, winning 1-0. Most expected them to win, so this was the most obvious result of the weekend. It’s the Christmas round already, where has the year gone. Anyway this is always a good round, and it should be no different this year. We’ve got one game on Christmas Eve, two on Boxing Day, and then a couple on the Sunday after that. This looks a very top-heavy round, with my ratings having the longest priced favourite at $2.19, and a few matches with a heavily odds-on fav. The main interest will be around the final match of the round when Melbourne City head to Brisbane as they try to continue to climb the ladder. A win here would take them to second at worst, with a chance of going to the top. A quick heads up, my prices lately are matching right up with what the bookies are offering, so unfortunately there is little Head to Head action again this week, hopefully we start to find an edge again soon. I’ll still write in each write-up who I think will win and there is often an Over/Under option that looks good too. Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 85 selections; I have had 29 winners, 48 losses and 8 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) -15.85 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -18.65%.
I’m still overseas so sorry for any delays in twitter replies.
Cheers
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $7.00.
2nd: Adelaide United/Wellington Phoenix – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
3rd: Sydney FC/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71.
4th: Brisbane Roar/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Newcastle Jets
Thursday 24 December, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Pirtek Stadium
Round 12 kicks off on Christmas Eve with Western Sydney hosting Newcastle. Western Sydney continued their strong form with an away draw against Perth; this takes them to a stretch of eight games without a loss. While Perth isn’t a top shelf side, it’s always a hard road trip, so a draw will do Western Sydney just fine. Especially considering twice throughout the game they were behind. Newcastle also had a draw last week, but there’s being at home to Adelaide. I think they could of got more out of the match, but for a team in their position, they’ll take any point they can get. Obviously this game is just about as one-sided as they get, Western Sydney shouldn’t have any problem dealing with Newcastle off their recent form. I’ve rated Western Sydney $1.51, which I thought was pretty short, then when I’ve looked up the prices I’ve seen that the best available is only $1.40, this is way too short for mine. Newcastle I’ve rated as a long price outsider at $7.66, but you can get as much as $9.00 (Unibet) about them, I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think that’s an ok price. It’s very tough to tip Newcastle to beat Western Sydney, so I think taking them in the Draw No Bet market at $7.00 is the way to go.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 1
Newcastle 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.51
Newcastle $7.66
Draw $4.83
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.40 Sportsbet, William Hill
Newcastle $9.00 Unibet
Draw $4.75 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.20
Newcastle $6.07
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.11 Everywhere
Newcastle $7.00 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.35
Over $1.74
Market Price:
Under $2.20 Bet365, Palmerbet, Unibet
Over $1.68 Sportsbet
Value: Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $9.00.
Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $7.00.
Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday 26 December, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Coopers Stadium
You can sit down on Boxing Day afternoon with some Christmas leftovers and enjoy Adelaide and Wellington facing off at Coopers Stadium. After a couple of good wins Adelaide dropped the ball last week when they headed to Newcastle and could only come away with a draw. The scores ended up 0-0, but Adelaide could of easily scored, getting plenty of shots on target as well as holding good amounts of possession, but it wasn’t to be. Not sure what to make of Wellington last week, they hosted Sydney and their game ended in a draw too. A month or so ago I would of said that was a good point that they got out of the match, but Sydney have been out of form, so maybe they actually missed out on not getting all three points. While this isn’t a lock, Adelaide should be able to get back into the winners circle this week. Their back at home where they seem to play quite a bit better, and Wellington isn’t the strongest of opponents. I have Adelaide at $2.00, but the best price around is $1.91, so it obviously doesn’t represent any value. The only value I can see in the match is the $1.80 for Over 2.5 Goals, that’s looks more than generous to me and the best way to attack this match.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 2
Wellington 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $2.00
Wellington $4.16
Draw $3.86
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.91 Palmerbet
Wellington $4.20 Bet365
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.48
Wellington $3.09
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.38 Sportsbet
Wellington $3.10 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.63
Over $1.61
Market Price:
Under $2.05 Bet365
Over $1.80 Unibet
Value: Adelaide United/Wellington Phoenix – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners
Saturday 26 December, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
Boxing Day night see’s what used to be a big match that has petered off over the years, it’s Sydney and Central Coast. Sydney travelled across the Tasman last week to face-off with Wellington. Having only won one of their past six games the pressure was starting to build on Sydney, they are known as a strong team, but hadn’t been playing like it. This trip across east was never going to be an easy assignment for them either as their travelling form isn’t as good as their form at Allianz Stadium. Unfortunately for them they couldn’t break through against Wellington either with the game ending in a 1-1 draw. After missing an early penalty they would of thought they had thrown their chances away until a goal in the last ten minutes gave Sydney the lead. The story didn’t end there though; Krishna ruined Sydney’s party by scoring an injury time goal to leave both teams sharing the points. Central Coast, no surprises from them, they are coming off another loss, this time it was against Brisbane. They won their first game of the season, but since then they’ve only managed two draws and either losses. They are really struggling to find any form, and at this stage there doesn’t look to be any light at the end of the tunnel. Sydney should just be winning, I’ve got them rated at $1.54, and I think that’s a pretty fair price for them to bounce back. Once again the bookmakers ruin the party by not giving us a good enough price to get on the favourite, all we can get is $1.44 at the moment. Thankfully, once again the Over/Under market looks to be where the action is at, and again, I think Overs is the way to go, I can see plenty of goals being scored in this one.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 4
Central Coast 1
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.54
Central Coast $8.13
Draw $5.32
Market Price:
Sydney $1.44 William Hill
Central Coast $8.00 Sportsbet
Draw $4.75 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.18
Central Coast $6.60
Market Price:
Sydney $1.14 Bet365
Central Coast $6.10 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.86
Over $1.54
Market Price:
Under $2.25 Bet365
Over $1.71 Sportsbet
Value: Sydney FC/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71.
Melbourne Victory v Perth Glory
Sunday 27 December, 5:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
It’s over to Sunday and the out of form Melbourne Victory is up against Perth. Melbourne Victory is coming off their big Melbourne Derby match against Melbourne City. For the first time in a long time they ended up going into the match as underdogs, and it was justified. They were outplayed by Melbourne City and are probably lucky to have it be only a one goal loss, it could have been more. That’s three losses in a row for them, which has caused them to slide right down the table, they are now only one game inside the finals positions, and so they’ll need to be turning things around soon. Perth had a solid enough draw last week when hosting Western Sydney. I don’t think teams should ever be happy with a draw when playing at home, but in this case, against Western Sydney, I don’t think they’ll be that disappointed. They do need to start getting some more wins though; only three by Christmas isn’t good enough to get you playing finals. Back at home this is a must win match for Melbourne Victory and they really should be winning it. If they don’t, heads might start to roll as the season could be all over. Another game, another time where my prices and the bookies prices match up nearly exactly, leaves us with no wriggle room for some value. Unfortunately there isn’t even any value in the Over/Under market this time; this is a sit out for me.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 1
Perth 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.56
Perth $7.01
Draw $4.60
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.47 Sportsbet, William Hill
Perth $7.00 Palmerbet
Draw $4.50 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.22
Perth $5.49
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.18 Bet365
Perth $5.40 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.17
Over $1.85
Market Price:
Under $2.33 Sportsbet
Over $1.61 Unibet
Value: No value.
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne City
Sunday 27 December, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
Lucky last game of the round sees a cracking match between Brisbane and Melbourne City, two and three on the table. Brisbane had another solid enough game last week, it was away to Central Coast and they landed a 1-0 win. Of course from a topside playing Central Coast you’d expect a bigger margin, but they got the job done which is the main thing. That now sits them second on the table, just two points behind Western Sydney. Melbourne City again continued their brilliant form with another win last week, it was their biggest scalp yet beating Melbourne Victory. It had been a while since they bet their biggest rival, and they would of loved it. Not only that, it also moved them within striking distance of the top of the table and with their excellent goal difference, they could move all the way to the top by the end of the weekend. This is the toughest match of the round, but I have to give the nod to Brisbane, both teams are in very similar form, but the game being played at Suncorp is enough to split the two teams I think. Brisbane is nearly enough value at $2.35, but I just need an extra $0.05 or $0.10 to make it an official selection. Keen on the Over 2.5 Goals here, Melbourne City’s last four games have had 19 goals scored, that’s enough for me to say this one is going overs too.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Melbourne City 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $2.19
Melbourne City $3.47
Draw $3.91
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.35 Sportsbet, William Hill
Melbourne City $3.20 Bet365
Draw $3.50 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.63
Melbourne City $2.58
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.72 William Hill
Melbourne City $2.20 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.83
Over $1.55
Market Price:
Under $2.28 Unibet
Over $1.71 Sportsbet
Value: Brisbane Roar/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.71.
