Welcome to The Profits A-League Round 23 2017 Preview as the season kicks off on Friday night at the Allianz Stadium and The Profits A-League expert previews all the matches and shares his best bets.
Best Value
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.25
With Western Sydney being rather disappointing the last two weeks, I’m happy to risk them this round. Wellington on the other hand has played good football the previous two weeks and I think they should go into this game with a bit of confidence. While they’re far from a good thing, at $3.25 with money back for the draw, I think you can do a lot worse than look Wellington’s way this week.
Next Best Value
Sydney/Central Coast – Draw – Head to Head – $6.75
This is a real long shot, but I’m hoping Central Coast can somehow sneak a draw from their match against Sydney. I actually think Central Coast is value too, but I going with the Draw is brazen enough. I think this is only the second time in the four years I’ve been pricing up A-League that the “Draw” has actually been value, fingers crossed it comes through.
Best Value:
1st: Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.25
2nd: Sydney/Central Coast – Draw – Head to Head – $6.75
3rd: Sydney/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $3.15
4th: Western Sydney/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64
Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners
Friday 10 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
It’s a split round this week with two of the games being played this week, and the other three being played next week. To kick things off we have what looks to be a very one-sided affair between Sydney and Central Coast. Last week Sydney had to show what they were made of when they hosted Melbourne Victory, the team that appeared to be their only threat in taking out the premiership. It was a hard fought match, but Sydney dominated all the crucial stats and made Melbourne Victory pay on the score line. It was only a 1-0 win, but those three points would mean the world to Sydney and the title race. Central Coast had a disappointing loss in Round 22 to Melbourne City. Early in the game the fell behind 2-0, but they showed some real fight and managed to drag a couple of goals back, leveling things up. Unfortunately they couldn’t hold on though and Fornaroli broke their heart with the winning goal for Melbourne City. This looks like it should be an easy kill for Sydney; they’d be very disappointed if they dropped any points here. I hate saying it but I think both Central Coast and the Draw look a bit of value here. It’s very hard to tip up Central Coast, so I think the Draw may be the go to option here. Also, $3.15 seems a huge price for Under 2.5 Goals in my opinion.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 4
Central Coast 0
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.43
Central Coast $9.23
Draw $5.18
Market Price:
Sydney $1.25 Sportsbet
Central Coast $13.00 Bet365
Draw $6.75 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.15
Central Coast $7.44
Market Price:
Sydney $1.05 Bet365, Sportsbet
Central Coast $11.00 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.57
Over $1.64
Market Price:
Under $3.15 Unibet
Over $1.36 Bet365
Value: Central Coast – Drawn No Bet – $11.00
Central Coast – Head to Head – $13.00
Draw – Head to Head – $6.75
Sydney/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $3.15
Melbourne Victory v Perth Glory
Saturday 11 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
We’ve also got another lopsided match on Saturday night as Melbourne Victory is hosting Perth at AAMI Park. Melbourne Victory were on the road to Sydney last week, and while they gave it their all, they were no match for them in the end. While the final score was only 1-0, Sydney dominated both possession and shots. It’s hard to take much away from them though, as Sydney is the best team in the competition, and when at home they’re incredibly tough to beat. Melbourne Victory is back at AAMI Park this week and will be looking to bounce back quickly. Perth played away to Wellington last week, that’s one hell of a road trip. I found the teams very hard to split prior to the match, and the game played out that way. Wellington took an early two goals advantage, then Perth came back, Wellington scored again, and once again Perth fought back. By the time the final whistle was blown the score was 3-3, and both teams had to settle for a point each. Melbourne Victory must win this week, there’s still a glimmer of hope for them catching Sydney at the top of the table, so they need to make sure they win every game from here on out, and there’s no reason why they should lose drop points here either. I personally think $1.73 is a good price for the home side, I can’t really see any result other than a Melbourne Victory win.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 0
Perth 3
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.55
Perth $6.80
Draw $4.79
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.73 Sportsbet
Perth $4.40 Unibet
Draw $4.30 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.23
Perth $5.38
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.33 Bet365
Perth $3.45 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $4.34
Over $1.30
Market Price:
Under $2.90 Unibet
Over $1.44 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $1.73
Melbourne Victory/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.44
Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets
18 Saturday March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
We have to skip a week forward to get to the third game of Round 23. Melbourne City will be looking to make it back-to-back wins when they host Newcastle on Saturday night. In Round 22 Melbourne City played Central Coast on the road, and while it wasn’t a walk in the park for them, they got the three points that they needed. Fornaroli did what Fornaoli does and banged in two goals for them in their 3-2 win. Melbourne City is now tied for third place, so they’ll want to be putting a gap between themselves and Brisbane as they come into finals. Newcastle was pretty poor against Brisbane last time out. While Brisbane is a tough opponent, they were at home, so I expected more than the 3-1 loss that they were handed. They even opened up the scoring early on, but from that point on it was all Brisbane. Finals are still well within reach for them, but they’ll have to play better than that if they want to make it there. Be pretty shocked if Melbourne City didn’t get all three points again this round, this looks a very winnable match for them, although their form can be a little up and down. I’m pretty surprised about the price for Melbourne City; I thought they’d be a bit longer than what they’ve gone up. At $5.20 I could probably have a nibble at Newcastle in the Draw No Bet market.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 2
Newcastle 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.64
Newcastle $5.94
Draw $4.50
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.53 Bet365
Newcastle $7.00 Sportsbet
Draw $4.50 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.28
Newcastle $4.62
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.20 Bet365
Newcastle $5.20 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.65
Over $1.61
Market Price:
Under $2.65 Unibet
Over $1.50 Sportsbet
Value: Newcastle – Head to Head – $7.00
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $5.20
Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar
Sunday 19 March, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
On Sunday afternoon we have a matchup between Adelaide and Brisbane at Hindmarsh Stadium. Adelaide somehow managed to scramble a point out of their game against Western Sydney last round. At first look you’d think it was a bit of a “bore-draw” as the score ended up 0-0, but it was far from that. Western Sydney were peppering shots all game, and ended up having a massive 22 shots, compared to Adelaide who only had 7. But Adelaide’s defense stood strong, and I’d imagine they would have to be pretty happy with their point out of the match. Brisbane preformed very well against Newcastle in Round 22. They were on the road, which is never an easy feat, and Newcastle had been playing well prior, but Brisbane were playing at their best, and when they do that they make it hard for any team. They ended up having an easy 3-1 win, and are now in equal third position with Melbourne City. This game looks a little tighter than the ones earlier in the round, but Brisbane should be able to chalk up another three points here. Alas the market is spot on with my pricing, so this will be a sit out game for me.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 2
Brisbane 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $3.55
Brisbane $2.22
Draw $3.73
Market Price:
Adelaide $3.60 Bet365
Brisbane $2.20 Sportsbet
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $2.60
Brisbane $1.63
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.50 Bet365
Brisbane $1.58 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.65
Over $1.61
Market Price:
Under $2.20 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.67 Unibet
Value: No value
Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix
Sunday 19 March, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium
The last game of this extended round is on Sunday afternoon, and it looks like they’ve saved the tightest game for last. It’s between Western Sydney and Wellington, and there is only two points between them on the table, so this is an important game with the last finals position on the line. Western Sydney might be looking back at their last game as one that got away. They were playing Adelaide, who’s only won three games this year, at home, and only managed one point. They had no shortage of shots, but none could find the back of the net. After the ninety minutes the scores were still 0-0, and they had to settle for the single point. While Wellington weren’t great, they still managed a point from their game against Perth. They were at home, so I think they maybe should have done better, but Perth is a solid side, and it wasn’t due to a lack of goals, the final score line was 3-3. This is the closest match of the round, and I think it could easily go either way, but I’m going to give the nod to Western Sydney. I can’t believe Western Sydney has gone up odds-on, which looks poison odds to me. I rated Wellington $3.25, and you can get that same price with the money back for the draw insurance, I definitely think that’s the way to go. Even the Over 2.5 Goals looks value at the short price the way Wellington’s games have been going.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 3
Wellington 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.35
Wellington $3.25
Draw $3.75
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.88 Unibet
Wellington $4.20 Bet365
Draw $3.75 TopBetta
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.72
Wellington $2.38
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.38 Unibet
Wellington $3.25 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.38
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $2.32 Unibet
Over $1.64 Sportsbet
Value: Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.25
Wellington – Head to Head – $4.20
Western Sydney/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64
