So the first round of the new A-League season is done and dusted and we ended up coming out of it a little bit ahead with 3 collects, 2 losses and 1 push. Not a bad way to start the season, could of easily gone better, but could of just as easily gone the other way with Central Coast scoring very late.
I’ve improved my ratings for Perth, Adelaide and both Melbourne teams, and I’ve brought Brisbane and Central Coast back to the rest of the pack a little. It was always going to be hard to tell how the teams had come back this season, but I’m pretty happy with where I have everyone now.
Now that I’m assessing 3 markets for each match instead of just 1 like last season, there will be a lot more plays each week. There will often be both Head to Head and Draw No Bet plays for the same team if I think they are both value, but from time to time it might just be one or the other.
With more plays each week (there’s 10 selections this week) I’ve upped my best value selections to 4 rather than just 2 which I had done previously. Under each game I’ve listed the plays in order from the best value down.
Also since last week I’ve realised that the price for Over/Under 2.5 Goals can vary quite a lot from bookie to bookie so I’ll also being adding in the market price for this bet type too from now on.
Onto Round 2 and I’m pretty excited for it to roll around. There are some cracking matches like the old rivalry between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United and the Sydney Derby. Being a week in, we are starting to get an idea of how the new players are gelling with their teams and which trades might not have worked so well.
If you ever have any questions or queries feel free to hit me up on tweeter, always more than happy to give my opinion on things. Also appreciate any feedback that you might have on my write-up and tweets, and always appreciate the odd RT.
Once again thanks for reading, all of you are the reason that I can keep doing this each week.
Hopefully we can get even more winners this week.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Perth/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.25.
2nd: Sydney FC – Head to Head – $2.70.
3rd: Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $1.87.
4th: Sydney/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.05
Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory
Friday 17 October, 7:40pm (local) – Adelaide Oval
This is a cracking match to kick off Round 2. Adelaide host Melbourne Victory, probably the two teams that impressed most coming out of Round 1. Adelaide travelled to Brisbane and left with all 3 points, a very hard task for any team. Melbourne Victory hosted Western Sydney and managed to net a massive 4 goals in a stunning performance. This is one of the biggest old school rivalries in the A-League in recent times has been pretty even, with the last 5 games being split 2 each and a draw. At home, and off the back of last weeks efforts I have no doubt Adelaide should be a strong favourite for this match. I was pretty surprised when I was looking up the prices and seen as much as $2.40 was available; this looks a pretty decent price to me. An even bigger shock was when I noticed you could get $1.87 for them in the Draw No Bet market, this is very generous and should be snapped up while it lasts.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 2
Draw 1
Melbourne Victory 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.90
Draw $3.93
Melbourne Victory $4.56
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.40 Ladbrokes, Betstar
Draw $3.50 Bet365
Melbourne Victory $3.05 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.42
Melbourne Victory $3.40
Market Price
Adelaide $1.87 Ladbrokes
Melbourne Victory $2.20 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.82
Under $2.22
Market Price:
Over $1.73 Sportsbet
Under $2.25 Bet365
Value:
Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $1.87
Adelaide United – Head to Head – $2.40.
Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday 18 October, 5:00pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium
Wellington gets on a plane and heads to Bluetongue Stadium to take on Central Coast on Saturday afternoon. Central Coast just managed to get the win in Round 1 against Newcastle when Duke scored a very late injury time goal to break the 0-0 dead lock. Did they deserve the 3 points, some might say no, the stats lean that way, but they got the points on the board and that’s all that matters. Wellington hosted Perth last Sunday in a match that most thought they would just come out and win. They had some nice attacks at times, but just couldn’t find the back of the net as much as they would have hoped and ended up losing 2-1. The fact that Central Coast is hosting this game is nearly enough to tip them. They have won 62% of their games at Bluetongue since the start of last season, that’s the second best record in the league. They would of got a decent talking to after last week’s game and I think they’ll come out firing. The $1.77 that a few bookmakers have on offer is enough for me; I think they should be around the $1.57 mark. There’s not enough value in the Draw No Bet market, and the Over/Under looks too hard to call, so just sticking with the regular Head to Head market in this.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 2
Draw 2
Wellington 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.57
Draw $4.69
Wellington $6.72
Market Price
Central Coast $1.77 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Draw $3.80 Bet365
Wellington $4.60 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.23
Wellington $5.29
Market Price
Central Coast $1.30 Sportsbet
Wellington $3.50 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.91
Under $2.09
Market Price:
Over $1.90 Unibet, Luxbet
Under $1.95 Bet365
Value:
Central Coast Mariners – Head to head – $1.77.
Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 18 October, 7:30pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
While this rivalry is only a couple of seasons old, the Sydney Derby doesn’t usually disappoint. It will be a big crowd at Allianz Stadium this Saturday night, while it still isn’t Western Sydney’s home game, it is their first game for the season in Sydney, and the RBB will be out in force. I’m not sure which team was more disappointing last week, was it Western Sydney who were torn apart by Melbourne Victory, but they were never expected to win. Or Sydney, who I thought at home, would be too good for Melbourne City, but only managed to take 1 point out of the fixture. Sydney has a very good home record, and last season was evidence that they are a different team at home to when they are on the road. When looking at the match I thought that I’d be pretty happy to give them another chance to prove how good they are at home, and then I seen the price and it made me certain that I was keen to go with them. Not 100% sure how both of teams are $2.70, Sydney should be a lot shorter, I have them a touch of odds-on. Obviously I’m also keen on the $1.83 in the Draw No Bet market, that’s only $0.09 shorter than my rated Head to Head price. This game also looks destined to be a high scorer, and I’m pretty shocked that Under is the favourite in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market, very keen on the Overs in this too.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 1
Draw 1
Western Sydney 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.92
Draw $3.99
Western Sydney $4.36
Market Price:
Sydney $2.70 Bet365
Draw $3.40 Sportsbet
Western Sydney $2.70 Ladbrokes, Sportsbet, Betstar
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.44
Western Sydney $3.27
Market Price
Sydney $1.83 Bet365
Western Sydney $2.07 Ladbrokes
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.56
Under $2.77
Market Price:
Over $2.05 Bet365, Ladbrokes
Under $1.82 Sportsbet
Value:
Sydney FC – Head to Head – $2.70.
Sydney/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.05.
Sydney FC – Draw No Bet – $1.83.
Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets
Sunday 19 October, 3:00pm (local) – AAMI Park
Melbourne City play host to Newcastle in their first home game since their re-branding and it should be a packed house at AAMI Park. You’d imagine fans would be jumping out of trees to get tickets to the David Villa show, remember he’s only playing 10 games for City. They were very good last week, heading up to Allianz Stadium to take on Sydney FC and came away with 1 point, which is a good effort. Newcastle were also pretty good last week, holding Central Coast to 0-0 until the last couple of minutes until they allowed a late goal, ruining all their hard work from the previous 90 minutes. Villa and Duff were huge last week for City and I expect that to be no different most weeks. They shouldn’t have much trouble scoring against this Newcastle defense, and if they do take the lead I don’t think Newcastle can come back from behind. After I worked out my prices I noticed how short I had Melbourne City and thought, here comes a selection. I went online to see the best price available and was horrified to see $1.70 was the best price going, hard to believe they are that short. I then had a look at the other side of the match and noticed that a couple of bookies have Newcastle at $5.50, for a team that only just lost last week to Central Coast. It might seem foolish but they’re going to have to be my first long priced selection for the season. I would have been more comfortable with the Draw No Bet market, but the value isn’t there for that so just going to have to stick to my guns and go them Head to Head.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 2
Draw 0
Newcastle 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.79
Draw $4.21
Newcastle $4.92
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.70 Sportingbet, Centre, TW
Draw $3.80 Sportsbet
Newcastle $5.50 Ladbrokes, Betstar
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.36
Newcastle $3.75
Market Price
Melbourne City $1.22 Sportsbet
Newcastle $3.50
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.95
Under $2.05
Market Price:
Over $1.80 Ladbrokes, Bet365
Under $2.02 Luxbet
Value:
Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $5.50.
Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar
Sunday 19 October, 5:00pm (local) – Stadium
We head into the last game of Round 2, which involves Brisbane Roar flying all the way over to Perth to take on the Glory. While this might look like an average game on paper, this game interests me a lot. While I was working out my ratings, and doing my prices I began to think, “I don’t know who will be favourite for this match”. As I did the math I quickly realised that I had Perth as a warm favourite, yes Perth, against last years Premiers. While they only beat Wellington, Perth were very impressive last week, their attacking through Keogh and Nichols looked first class, and there is bound to be a lot of goals generated through those two as the season progresses. Brisbane on the other hand was rather lack luster last Sunday. They lost 2-1 at home to Adelaide, 1 of the goals was an own goal, but nonetheless, you would have expected them to come away from it with at least a solitary point. I by no mean think Perth are morals, I have less than $1.00 between the 2 teams, but I do think the home side should be favourites, but as I type this, they are not. Bet365 have Perth at $2.90, which is crazy, there is no way that will last, and Perth could even starts favourites. If you couldn’t tell I think the $2.90 is a very good price. There’s $2.00 available for Perth with a Draw No Bet, it’s also value, and maybe bit easier to take when betting against last seasons Champs. But this is what really intrigues me about this match up, the amount of times the ball is going to go into the back of the net. I think this game will produce plenty goals and I couldn’t believe my luck when I loaded up the Ladbrokes website and they had $2.25 for Over 2.5 Goals. Not only do I think this is the best value out of this game, I think it’s the best value for the whole round. It took till the last game of the round to find the best, but let’s hope by the time we get to it we are not disappointed and see lots of goals, preferably by the Glory attackers.
Last 5 games:
Perth 1
Draw 1
Brisbane 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $2.37
Draw $3.79
Brisbane $3.18
Market Price:
Perth $2.90 Bet365
Draw $3.35 Sportingbet, Centrebet, TW
Brisbane $2.60 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.75
Brisbane $2.34
Market Price
Perth $2.00
Brisbane $1.87
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.58
Under $2.72
Market Price:
Over $2.25 Ladbrokes
Under $1.74 Sportsbet
Value:
Perth/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.25.
Perth Glory – Head to Head – $2.90.
Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $2.00.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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