Best Value
Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.52
This is a game of poor defenses, and that means there should be goals aplenty. I know $1.52 is short, but I had the price rated a hell of a lot shorter than that.
Next Best Value
Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.85
Another shorty at $1.85, but I don’t really see how Adelaide get beat by Central Coast. Adelaide is a top 4 side, playing at home, against one of the weakest teams in the league, this should be a no brainer.
1st: Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.52
2nd: Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.85
3rd: Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.55
4th: Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.85
Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar
Friday 9 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Round 20 is split over two weekends, with two games this week and the remaining three next weekend. First up are Melbourne Victory and Brisbane at AAMI Park on Friday night. Last Saturday Melbourne Victory had Newcastle away, and they never really stood up to the challenge. They managed to get a lot of shots off, but couldn’t finish like Newcastle could. They ended up going down 2-0, but Newcastle is a top class side, so that was result wasn’t much of a shock. Brisbane hosted the other Melbourne team last week, Melbourne City, and although they led early in the game, they couldn’t get the job done and lost 2-1. After Maccarone got them the lead, it was very disappointing to see them throw it away, it was a good chance for them to get another win, and get themselves into the top 6. Home ground advantage is massive for Melbourne Victory, and that should be enough for them to get all three points out of this fixture. $1.70 seems a fair enough price for them, but it doesn’t give us any edge, I’d need $1.90 to get involved, otherwise it’s a sit out match for me.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Brisbane 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.72
Brisbane $5.39
Draw $4.27
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.70 Everywhere
Brisbane $4.80 Unibet
Draw $4.20 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.32
Brisbane $4.13
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.30 Ladbrokes, Bet365
Brisbane $4.00 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.48
Over $1.68
Market Price:
Under $2.40 Ubet
Over $1.61 Sportsbet
Value: No value
Melbourne City v Sydney FC
Saturday 10 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
The match of the round has to be this blockbuster between Melbourne City and Sydney on Saturday night. Melbourne City is coming off a very strong away win last week against Brisbane on the road. What made the victory even more impressive was the fact that they came from 1-0 down to win 2-1. They’re now comfortably holding third place on the ladder, and are setting their sights on Newcastle in second. Sydney demolished Wellington last week, as you would expect from a “first vs last” match. But they really did never give Wellington the slightest look in by controlling the game with 64% of the possession. At the final whistle the score was 4-0, but they had the game won a long time before that. This should be a real cracker, but I think the league leaders have a slight advantage going into the game. At the prices though, I think Melbourne City is who you have to be with. $2.55 looks a great price in the Draw No Bet market too, giving you a little bit of security.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 0
Sydney 5
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $2.98
Sydney $2.58
Draw $3.63
Market Price:
Melbourne City $3.50 Ladbrokes, Bet365
Sydney $2.15 William Hill
Draw $3.60 TopBetta, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $2.16
Sydney $1.87
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.55 Unibet
Sydney $1.57 Ladbrokes
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.03
Over $1.97
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365
Over $1.82 Ubet
Value: Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.55
Melbourne City – Head to Head – $3.50
Western Sydney Wanderers v Newcastle Jets
Friday 16 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium
Part two of Round 20 kicks-off at Spotless Stadium on Friday night with an interesting match between Western Sydney and Newcastle. Western Sydney is coming into this match off a dominant win against Wellington last Sunday. They went into the match as a strong favourite and didn’t disappoint. The final score was 4-0, and the result never looked in doubt for them. That’s back-to-back wins now, enough to boost them up into a finals position; they’ll need more football like that if they’re to stay in a finals spot though. Newcastle continued their solid form when hosting Melbourne Victory Saturday week ago. They were beaten in possession and shots at goal, but weren’t beaten on the most important stat, goals. When the final whistle was blown the scoreboard showed 2-0 in their favour. They mixed it up with their goal scorers too with Boogaard and McGree getting on the sheet, a pair that rarely hit the back of the net. This should be a good tough match, with both teams getting their chance. I struggled to split the sides but in the end gave the slight nod to Western Sydney, hoping that home ground advantage does enough for them. Their price is good enough too; I’m keen on the $1.85 in the Draw No Bet market personally.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 2
Newcastle 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.52
Newcastle $2.98
Draw $3.75
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.80 Unibet, TopBetta
Newcastle $2.50 Bet365
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.85
Newcastle $2.18
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.08 Unibet
Newcastle $1.78 Ubet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.54
Over $1.65
Market Price:
Under $2.25 Sportsbet, Ubet
Over $1.64 Bet365
Value: Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.85
Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.80
Wellington Phoenix v Perth Glory
Saturday 17 February, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
Wellington has a chance to get back into winning form when they host Perth Saturday afternoon. Wellington played Western Sydney on Sunday and it was a demolition job. Wellington never got a look in throughout the 90 minutes. The end result was a 4-0 loss, which isn’t great when they had a 4-0 loss the week before too. They’re back at home and against far easier opposition here so let’s hope they can show a little more. Perth played Adelaide away in Round 19 and although Keogh got them an early lead minutes into the game, they still couldn’t manage a result. Their away form is becoming a real issue for Perth, and could be what costs them a spot in the finals at the pointy end of the season. Very happy to be with Wellington here, as mentioned above Perth’s away form is atrocious, so you’ve got to be with the home side. Their price isn’t the best though, and the value in the match looks to be the Over 2.5 Goals option at $1.52, it’s got to be close to a good thing.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 1
Perth 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.27
Perth $3.42
Draw $3.74
Market Price:
Wellington $2.25 Unibet, Ubet
Perth $3.20 Bet365
Draw $3.75 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.67
Perth $2.50
Market Price:
Wellington $1.68 Ubet
Perth $2.27 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $6.07
Over $1.20
Market Price:
Under $2.55 Ubet
Over $1.52 Sportsbet
Value: Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.52
Adelaide United v Central Coast
Saturday 17 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
Last game of Round 20 is Adelaide and Central Coast at Hindmarsh Stadium on Saturday night. Adelaide hosted Perth last week, and even though they fell a goal behind early in the match, they fought back to take all three points away from the game. They were helped by an own goal, but they won’t be complaining. Their form is really starting to stack up, and surprisingly they’re now up to fourth on the table. Central Coast’s tough season continued when they hosted Western Sydney last round. They lost 2-1, but their goal came pretty late in the piece, and was more of a consolation goal rather than any real threat to Western Sydney. They’ve continued to slide on the table and are now second bottom, which is disappointing as the started the season reasonably well, for them anyway. No shocks here, Adelaide just wins. Central Coast won’t be able to get near them; a score line around 3-0 wouldn’t shock me at all. Bookies have gone up $1.85 about Adelaide too, that’s decent overs, I had them nearly $1.50.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 3
Central Coast 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.56
Central Coast $6.51
Draw $4.90
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.85 Everywhere
Central Coast $4.25 TopBetta, Unibet
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.24
Central Coast $5.18
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.40 Ladbrokes
Central Coast $3.25 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $1.87
Over $2.15
Market Price:
Under $1.95 Bet365
Over $1.90 William Hill, Ubet
Value: Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.85
Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $1.40
