It’s good to be winning again. There was only one selection from the 2 Elimination Finals last week and it went just to plan. Central Coast looked a big price at $2.15 vs Adelaide, and that turned out to be exactly right.
The first game that kicked off was Melbourne Victory and Sydney at Etihad Stadium on Good Friday. It was a goal apiece for a good portion of the game, and then in injury time, Melbourne Victory’s Brazilian star Finkler, slotted a late goal to take the honours and prevent the game going into extra time. They did look an even money chance, so that result was expected, unfortunately there wasn’t any value for us to take advantage of though. Now they get to head to Brisbane with a chance of making the Final.
Then on Saturday Central Coast hosted Adelaide. I still can’t believe Central Coast weren’t odds on. It was actually a pretty close game, but Ibini-Isei broke the deadlock not long after half time for the home team, which in turn landed our only selection for the week. Central Coast won’t have to travel far as they now take on Western Sydney in the Semi’s.
This week is the Semi Finals and up for grabs are 2 spots in the A League Championship Final. We have Western Sydney hosting Central Coast and Melbourne Victory heading to Brisbane, with the winners of each game going into the big one. Both the home teams look hard to beat, but I’m actually keen on one of the underdogs.
It’s getting to the end of the season, I hope it’s been profitable for you, and hope you can get something out of these last few games.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value: Central Coast at $5.25 with Sportingbet.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Central Coast Mariners
Saturday 26 April 6:30pm (local) – Pirtek Stadium
In the first Semi Final Western Sydney hosts Central Coast. Western Sydney will love having last week off and should come into this game pretty fresh. Their last few A League games have been ok, but nothing fantastic, including a recent loss to Central Coast. There is no doubt that they should be a clear favourite with the game being played at Pirtek Stadium, but I’m not sure if they should be quite as short as they are. Central Coast has been good winning their last 2 games, including a strong 1-0 over Adelaide last week to get them into this fixture. They have been pretty decent on the road this season and should be able to give this game a half decent shake. Now don’t get me wrong, if this was a tipping competition Western Sydney would be the clear selection, I have them at $2.04, but when the best price available for them is $1.77, there is no way I could go near them. Central Coast on the other hand, Sportingbet are offering $5.25 for them, which seems a pretty crazy price for a team that won this same fixture less than a month ago. It’s not very often that there is value about a team at this price, and I think they’ll trim up a little by Saturday. I’m pretty happy to have Central Coast as the best value of the week. Also, I generally hate backing unders but in the 7 matches these 2 teams have played against each other, only 1 has had 3+ goals, unders looks a good chance to hit again.
Last 7 games:
Western Sydney 2
Draw 2
Central Coast 3
Rated Prices:
Western Sydney $2.04
Draw $3.79
Central Coast $4.07
Market:
Western Sydney $1.77 TAB
Draw $3.60 Betstar, Ladbrokes
Central Coast $5.25 Sportingbet
Best Value: Central Coast at $5.25 with Sportingbet.
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory
Sunday 27 April 5:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
Sunday afternoon see’s Melbourne Victory heading up to Suncorp Stadium to face the premiers, Brisbane. The home side has been clearly the best team all season, putting up strong performances whenever they have needed them. Lately they have let the ball slip a little, but in fairness, the last month they were playing for nothing, so minimal effort was to be expected. Now it comes to the business end of the season and the big guns will flex their muscles and I’m sure they will be incredibly hard to hold out. Melbourne Victory has been in very good form lately, winning in the league as well as in the ACL. A big issue for them is what it has been all season, travelling. Their road record is been very average all year, and they’re sure to find the trip to Brisbane as hard as any they’ve had to make. The other issue I see for Melbourne Victory is their head to head record with Brisbane, they have only managed to win 1 of the last 10 match ups against them. I have Brisbane rated a pretty low price, right down at $1.71, but the best price available is $1.75 with TAB, which isn’t enough to suck me in. If Brisbane drift out to $1.90, then I’d be all over them, but I can’t imagine them drifting that much, they don’t deserve to after all. The only option for the match might be in the overs/unders market. 8 of the last 12 matches between these teams has resulted in the game going overs, while it’s not a lock, it does look a nice play if you want to have a bet on the second Semi Final.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 5
Draw 4
Melbourne Victory 1
Rated Prices:
Brisbane $1.71
Draw $4.21
Melbourne Victory $5.59
Market:
Brisbane $1.75 TAB
Draw $3.80 Betstar, Tatts
Melbourne Victory $5.20 Sprotsbet
Best Value: Nothing.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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