Best Value
Perth – Draw No Bet – $4.00
I think Perth are still one of the best teams in the league, and I am prepared to forgive them for last week’s performance. $4.00 for a team like this, with money back for the draw is too good to pass up in my books. If they let me down this week again, I’ll have to reassess them, but at this stage I’m giving them one more chance.
Next Best Value
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $3.55
Don’t get me wrong, I think Sydney has a good chance of winning, but they are way under the odds, coming off two draws, they look vulnerable. Newcastle has been showing good promise, and I’m hoping they can put it all together this week and get the three points.
Best Value:
1st: Perth – Draw No Bet – $4.00
2nd: Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $3.55
3rd: Adelaide/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68
4th: Melbourne City/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
Melbourne Victory v Perth glory
Friday 2 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Round 9 gets underway with what should hopefully be a really good game with Melbourne Victory hosting Perth at AAMI Park. Melbourne Victory is coming off a pretty solid 2-0 win over Newcastle last week. The two goals came within a five-minute period in the second half, both finished off by Rojas. He has been a big asset to Melbourne Victory since rejoining the club, and they’re looking a lot more dangerous in that final third this season. Perth let me down last week, they were away to Central Coast, and started a pretty short favourite. Road games are never easy, but I thought they still shouldn’t have any trouble dealing with Central Coast. They had more shots than Central Coast, but without being able to finish their chances, they ended up losing 2-0. This looks a tight one to me, on the back of last weeks’ performances, I’ve got to give the edge to Melbourne Victory, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Perth put in a good showing. Perth are a very good price, and I think I’m prepared to roll the dice on them. You rarely get better than $5.00 for a top team like this.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 1
Perth 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.38
Perth $3.16
Draw $3.80
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.67 Sportsbet
Perth $5.25 Bet365
Draw $4.25 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.75
Perth $2.33
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.28 Sportsbet
Perth $4.00 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.34
Over $1.75
Market Price:
Under $2.50 William Hill
Over $1.55 Unibet
Value: Perth – Draw No Bet – $4.00
Perth – Head to Head – $5.25
Central Coast Mariners v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 3 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
We head to Bluetongue Stadium on Saturday to see Central Coast and Western Sydney face-off. Central Coast is coming off a shock win against Perth last week; they were hosting Perth and went into the fixture as a big underdog. After scoring at the thirty-minute mark, they sustained plenty of pressure from Perth, but managed to keep them scoreless. After they netted their second the game was all but wrapped up. Western Sydney played Brisbane and it always looked like it was going to be a close match, and that’s the exact way it played out. When it came to the final whistle, Western Sydney had to be happy with just the one point with the game finishing at 1-1. Stats say that Western Sydney should be winning this, but with Central Coast coming off a nice win they’ll be hoping to make it back-to-back victories. I think Over 2.5 Goals is the way to go here, Central Coast had their first clean sheet in forever last week, can’t see that happening again.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 1
Western Sydney 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $4.62
Western Sydney $1.88
Draw $3.98
Market Price:
Central Coast $3.75 Palmerbet
Western Sydney $2.00 Everywhere
Draw $3.60 Palmerbet, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $3.46
Western Sydney $1.41
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.78 Sportsbet
Western Sydney $1.47 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.02
Over $1.49
Market Price:
Under $2.25 William Hill
Over $1.66 Unibet
Value: Central Coast/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.66
Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar
Saturday 3 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
This is another top class game as a couple of teams towards the top of the table face-off in Melbourne City and Brisbane. Melbourne City played Wellington at AAMI Park last Sunday and anything less than three points wouldn’t have been acceptable. Thankfully for them they did land the three points, although it wasn’t all smooth sailing. They scored just before halftime, and went into the break with that 1-0 lead. Wellington then leveled up and things were looking dicey. Luckily for Melbourne City Fornaroli came through with the goods again and scored the winner for them. Brisbane had a fair result in Round 8 when they drew with Western Sydney on the road. It was always going to be a tight match, so the 1-1 score line was pretty fitting. Pretty confident Melbourne City will get another win this week as they try and reel in Sydney at the top of the ladder. Another game where the best value in the match looks to be the Over 2.5 Goals, the bookies appear to be spot on in the straight out markets.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 2
Brisbane 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.86
Brisbane $4.41
Draw $4.24
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.95 Bet365, William Hill
Brisbane $3.85 Unibet
Draw $3.65 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.42
Brisbane $3.37
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.43 Unibet
Brisbane $2.85 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.24
Over $1.45
Market Price:
Under $2.18 Sportsbet
Over $1.70 Bet365
Value: Melbourne City/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
Newcastle Jets v Sydney FC
Sunday 4 December, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
It’s been a while between wins for Newcastle and the task won’t be made any easier on Sunday afternoon when they come up against Sydney. Newcastle played Melbourne Victory last week, and it was away, so they can be forgiven for their performance. In all honesty though, they played pretty well, a five-minute lapse in concentration cost them as they dropped two goals in that small window, but other than that the game was a stalemate. Sydney surprisingly dropped a couple of points last week when they hosted the winless Adelaide. They went into the game as a very short priced favourite, and after ninety minutes of football the game was still at 0-0. While Adelaide was decent last season, they haven’t shown much this year, so Sydney would be disappointed with only a draw. I don’t think this will be as one-sided as some think, but Sydney really should get back to winning this week. After two draws, they’ll know other teams are catching them and they’ll want to put a gap between themselves and second on the ladder. Pretty surprised I’m saying this, but I look the look of Newcastle. They’ve been playing pretty well, and for the first time all season Sydney have looked very shaky. My preference has to be with the Draw No Bet market though.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 0
Sydney 5
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $3.47
Sydney $2.21
Draw $3.86
Market Price:
Newcastle $4.75 Bet365, Unibet
Sydney $1.73 Everywhere
Draw $3.80 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.57
Sydney $1.64
Market Price:
Newcastle $3.55 Unibet
Sydney $1.35 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.48
Over $1.68
Market Price:
Under $2.18 Sportsbet
Over $1.79 Unibet
Value: Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $3.55
Newcastle – Head to Head – $4.75
Adelaide United v Wellington
Sunday 4 December, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
The still winless Adelaide will try to break their duck against Wellington on Sunday evening. Adelaide, who we all know have been really struggling so far this season, put in a really good effort last week against the top-of-the-table Sydney. They went into the game as a big outsider, but managed to stay in contact with Sydney for the entire game. Although they kept Sydney scoreless, unfortunately they couldn’t net a goal for themselves, so they had to settle for a draw, but it was a step in the right direction. Wellington was up against Melbourne City last Sunday, and it was on the road, so they always had an uphill battle ahead of them. With about twenty minutes left they had the score at 1-1, and looked like they could produce an upset, but shortly after that they conceded and ended up going down 2-1. I feel Adelaide must win this match, on the back of last weeks strong draw to Sydney, a home match against Wellington should be a piece of cake. If they don’t get all three points here, I don’t think they can make finals, even though it’s still early in the season. Looks like I’m finishing the round with another Over 2.5 Goals. Both of these sides have pretty lacking defense, so hopefully a few get slotted.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 2
Wellington 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.78
Wellington $4.93
Draw $4.26
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.83 Sportsbet
Wellington $4.40 Unibet
Draw $3.80 Palmerbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.36
Wellington $3.77
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.36 William Hill
Wellington $3.25 Bet365, Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.76
Over $1.36
Market Price:
Under $2.25 William Hill
Over $1.68 Sportsbet
Value: Adelaide/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68
@AL_TheProfits
*Prices correct at time of writing
