A tough round last weekend, landing only 1 of the selections with the other 3 matches ending up in painful draws, including Adelaide after being 2-0 at half time. Western Sydney not being able to score a goal in New Zealand was another slightly surprising result, thought they’d be able to find the back of the net at least once over there.
It’s a bit of a hard round this week with a couple of the games’ markets looking to be pretty much spot on and not worth a play in the standard markets, luckily there is a few over/under bets that look to give us another option if we want a financial investment on these matches.
Once again I’m pretty nervous having Adelaide, let alone as the best value of the round, they have been costly so far this season, but $4.50 looks a massive price for a team that has just been missing out on a lot of occasions.
Western Sydney look about as good a chance as you get in soccer, unfortunately the market is spot on and making it hard for us to get on with any value, but have no doubt that they will come away with the 3 points.
Melbourne Victory get back to a very winnable match after having a few tough match ups in their last 4 games and should be able to chalk up another win against Newcastle.
Hopefully the luck falls our way this week after all those draws last week, good luck to everyone putting down their hard earned this weekend, whoever you’re backing.
Best Value: Adelaide at $4.50 with Sportingbet.
Second Best Value: Central Coast at $1.75 with TAB.
Adelaide v Brisbane
Friday 6 December 7:00pm (local) – Coopers Stadium
We kick off the Friday night double header in Adelaide as they as they try to notch up amazingly only their second win of the season. I think they had a hard opening draw and they haven’t been as poor as many have thought, although only managing to take away 1 point when up 2-0 against Melbourne Heart last week was very disappointing from them. And against a team who has struggled to score all season long they ended up letting 3 into the back of the net, very average. Brisbane on the other hand have been very impressive, they got the job done against Perth last week, just like they have 5 other times so far this season. Important to note is that Brisbane’s 2 losses so far this season have come when on the road, to Melbourne Victory and Newcastle, which makes me a little hesitant towards them in this match. I think this will be a very close match, I have both teams within 40c of each other, and doubt either team will win by more than a goal. At $4.50 I have to be on Adelaide, but I understand they are becoming very costly to punters this season. Interestingly 5 out of the last 6 matches have gone under 2.5 goals, so that is definitely an intriguing option if you don’t want to back Adelaide, surely no one can think Brisbane are value at $1.87.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 1
Draw 1
Brisbane 3
Rated Prices:
Adelaide $2.54
Draw $3.76
Brisbane $2.93
Market:
Adelaide $4.50 Sportingbet
Draw $3.70 Sportsbet
Brisbane $1.87 TAB
Best Value: Adelaide at $4.50 with Sportingbet.
Perth v Wellington
Friday 6 December 6:45pm (local) – NIB Stadium
A rare second match on a Friday night will keep A League fans happy if they don’t have any other plans on this Friday. It’s a bit of a late start for us on the east coast but there’s no better reason to stay up then to watch a bit of soccer. Wellington make the dreaded trip to the west coast of Australia and after playing only 5 days before, you’d think it would be a tough ask for them to come away with any kind of result in this fixture. Perth is creeping closer and closer to a top 6 position and they could push their way into a finals bound position with a win this weekend. While Wellington are going better than they did last season, they are still struggling and are yet to post a win this season, and I can’t see that changing this week. While I think Perth are a slight bit of value at $1.91, it’s not really enough to temp me in, the market looks to be all over this match. For those who love to have a bet when they watch a match, think these teams will struggle to score 3 or more goals, meaning the under 2.5 could be the way to go, it has gone unders in 6 of the last 8 fixtures between these clubs.
Last 5 games:
Perth 0
Draw 3
Wellington 2
Rated Prices:
Perth $1.80
Draw $4.15
Wellington $4.92
Market:
Perth $1.91 Ladbrokes
Draw $3.45 Sportingbet, TAB
Wellington $4.40 Sportingbet
Best Value: Nothing.
Western Sydney v Melbourne Heart
Saturday 7 December 5:30pm (local) – Pirtek Stadium
We kick off Saturday in Parramatta for Western Sydney against Melbourne Heart. Western Sydney has never dropped a single point against Melbourne Heart, and that trend is surely going to continue this weekend. While Western Sydney were rather disappointing only coming away with a single point last week, Melbourne Heart have only come away with 3 points from their first 8 games this season, which puts them in the unenviable position of bottom of the ladder. Western Sydney are 3 wins and a draw from their 4 matches at home this season, that home crowd is almost a 12th man for the club and it’s hard for any team to travel there and come away with anything. Would be shocked if Western Sydney didn’t easily take care of Melbourne Heart this weekend, would I take the $1.40 though, probably not. While it’s a fair price, it’s not value. While I’m not super keen on prop bets in the A League, bets like Western Sydney to win to zero or for them to keep a clean sheet might be the way to go, can’t see Melbourne Heart scoring this weekend.
Last 4 games:
Western Sydney 4
Draw 0
Melbourne Heart 0
Rated Prices:
Western Sydney $1.39
Draw $5.71
Melbourne Heart $9.45
Market:
Western Sydney $1.40 Sportingbet
Draw $4.75 Sportsbet
Melbourne Hear t$8.50 Most bookmakers
Best Value: Nothing.
Central Coast v Sydney
Saturday 7 December 7:45pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium
Saturday nights match is probably the highlight of the round, Sydney are in white hot form, winning their last 4 matches, against Central Coast, a team that have been slightly under achieving, but have still only lost 1 game for the season, a pretty impressive feat from a team everyone thinks isn’t performing. I don’t think they’ll have trouble knocking over Sydney, they have a great home record and Sydney’s road record is very average (winning 3 from their last 17). They need to start picking up their game with league leaders Brisbane kicking 8 points clear from them, they don’t want to be out touch of the premiership with the midpoint of the season not far away. TAB still have on offer $1.75 (at time of writing), in from $1.90 already, other bookies are a lot shorter, can’t imagine this price will last very long either, they look a very good bet.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 2
Draw 1
Sydney 2
Rated Prices:
Central Coast $1.48
Draw $4.92
Sydney $8.36
Market:
Central Coast $1.75 TAB
Draw $3.75 Ladbrokes
Sydney $5.25 Luxbet, Tatts
Best Value: Central Coast at $1.75 with TAB.
Melbourne Victory v Newcastle
Sunday 8 December 5:00pm (local) – AAMi Park
We round out the weekend with just a solo game on Sunday, and it’s one to celebrate, the 1000th A League game! One thing to be assured is that it should be an action packed game, the last 6 times these teams have faced off there has been a minimum of 3 goals scored, it should be a goal fest again. Melbourne Victory is yet to lose a game at home this season, posting 3 wins and a draw, and Newcastle have only managed 1 road win this season, all things are pointing to the boys in blue. As a Melbourne Victory supporter it is great to be on them again after opposing them the last 2 weeks, they are $1.80 and look to be a sub $1.60 chance in this match, another game I’m pretty keen on this round. Of course the over 2.5 goals play looks a great option as well if you love those over/under bets.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Draw 0
Newcastle 2
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Victory $1.53
Draw $5.00
Newcastle $6.80
Market:
Melbourne Victory $1.80 Tatts, TAB
Draw $3.65 Sportingbet
Newcastle $5.00 Sportingbet
Best Value: Melbourne Victory at $1.80 with Tatts/TAB.
*Pricing correct at time of writing.
