Best Value
Perth – Head to Head – $2.00
I’m happy to get the best of the week over nice and early with the match on Thursday night. I think Perth is a massive “get on” at $2.00, they really should be a lot shorter. My market had them rated at $1.63; and I think that’s about right. The $2.00 is great, but I’d even take them down to about $1.80.
Next Best Value
Western Sydney/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74
In a game where there doesn’t look to be much action in the way of the Head to Head market, I’m glad that there’s some value elsewhere. Five of Western Sydney’s last seven games have gone over 2.5 goals, and the other two finished on two. I can’t see why there wouldn’t be similar circumstances again. At $1.74 I don’t think you can go wrong, should get a good showing for your money.
Best Value:
1st: Perth – Head to Head – $2.00
2nd: Western Sydney/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74
3rd: Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $4.60
4th: Melbourne City/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.55
Central Coast Mariners v Perth Glory
Thursday 24 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
This write-up may get a little repetitive as three of the four games last week ended in 1-1 draws, but let’s get to it. There’s a slightly earlier start to the round this week with the first game, between Central Coast and Perth, getting underway on Thursday night. Central Coast went into their game against Newcastle last week as pretty big underdogs, both teams were on the same amount of points, but with the game being played at Newcastle, most didn’t give Central Coast much of a shot. They ended up giving it a fair crack though, and at halftime were actually leading 1-0. Unfortunately for them they couldn’t hold that lead, and ended up having to settle for a 1-1 draw. Perth were strong as expected last week, they were hosting Adelaide and looked one of the better bets of the weekend. They didn’t let backers down either, winning the game 3-1. They never really looked in doubt, after going down early; they tied it back up straight away. From then on it was all one-way football. Central Coast have been playing pretty well, but I think this game is beyond them, Perth should be able to rack up another three points. And at even money, I can’t get enough of Perth, I think they’re a steal, in what looks easy money.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 1
Perth 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $6.08
Perth $1.63
Draw $4.47
Market Price:
Central Coast $3.70 Unibet
Perth $2.00 Bet365
Draw $3.75 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $4.72
Perth $1.27
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.75 Unibet
Perth $1.45 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.38
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $2.35 Unibet
Over $1.60 Everywhere
Value: Perth – Head to Head – $2.00
Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.45
Central Coast/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60
Western Sydney Wanderers v Brisbane Roar
Friday 25 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium
Friday see’s quite an intriguing match-up between Western Sydney and Brisbane. Western Sydney hosted Melbourne City last week, which is obviously a hard match, but I thought they would get the better of Melbourne City, it wasn’t to be though. They actually were lucky to even come away with a point after trailing for a good portion of the game. A goal in injury gave them a lucky point out of the match, which I don’t know if they really deserved. Brisbane played Sydney and put a stop to their untouched run. Prior to the match Sydney had won all of their matches, but Brisbane broke their run, albeit only with a draw. Sydney got their noses in front early, but Brisbane fought back to have things tied up at 1-1 at the break. From that point forward it was back and forth, but no one could break through. Brisbane had to settle for a well-deserved point. I give the slight edge to Western Sydney in this one, but think it’s a wide-open match. The bookies look to have their prices pretty much spot on to me too, if Western Sydney were to drift a little, I’d be leaning their way, but at the moment I’m happy to just go with the Over 2.5 Goals.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 3
Brisbane 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.26
Brisbane $3.49
Draw $3.68
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.40 Palmerbet, Unibet
Brisbane $2.90 Bet365
Draw $3.55 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.65
Brisbane $2.55
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.75 Unibet
Brisbane $2.08 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.26
Over $1.44
Market Price:
Under $2.14 Unibet
Over $1.74 Sportsbet
Value: Western Sydney/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74
Melbourne Victory v Newcastle Jets
Saturday 26 November, 5:35pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Saturday afternoon see’s Melbourne Victory hosting Newcastle at AAMI Park. Due to the earthquake in New Zealand, Melbourne Victory’s match against Wellington was postponed, so they should be nice and fresh for this one. The previous week they dispensed of Western Sydney, beating them 3-0 at home. Newcastle let me down last week, I thought they’d come out and beat Central Coast with relative ease, but it wasn’t to be. All they could manage was a 1-1 draw. Playing at home to Central Coast is one of the easiest fixtures on the calendar, if you can’t get three points out of that match you’re in serious trouble. This should be an easy win for Melbourne Victory, I don’t see Newcastle getting close to them really. It’s another Melbourne Victory game were I can’t get excited about the Head to Head market, I must have them rated pretty similar to most, but I definitely think there is some value in under 2.5 goals, and that’s the way I’ll be attacking the match.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 2
Newcastle 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.64
Newcastle $6.05
Draw $4.47
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.50 Everywhere
Newcastle $6.50 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $4.50 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.27
Newcastle $4.70
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.18 Bet365
Newcastle $5.10 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.05
Over $1.95
Market Price:
Under $2.25 Unibet
Over $1.67 Bet365
Value: Melbourne Victory/Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.25
Sydney FC v Adelaide United
Saturday 26 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
After dropping points for the first time this season, Sydney will be looking to make amends as they host Adelaide on Saturday night. Sydney were playing away to Brisbane last week, so the fact that they came away with a 1-1 draw isn’t too bad in my opinion, but it was the first time they hadn’t won this season so they’ll be disappointed and ready to bounce back. Adelaide had to travel to Perth last week, so I gave them little to no hope, and they didn’t let me down. After scoring early they might of thought they were in with a chance, but that didn’t last long as Perth turned up the pressure. They ended up going down 3-1, which was pretty much to be expected. Sydney will most likely get back on the winning train this week, I can’t see Adelaide putting up much of a fight against the league leaders. In saying that, I think the market favours the Sydney too much, and it’s getting Adelaide out to a ridiculous price. I’m tempted to have something small on Adelaide at $4.60 with money back for the draw.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 1
Adelaide 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.82
Adelaide $4.78
Draw $4.17
Market Price:
Sydney $1.57 Palmerbet
Adelaide $6.00 Unibet
Draw $4.20 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.38
Adelaide $3.63
Market Price:
Sydney $1.22 William Hill
Adelaide $4.60 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.28
Over $1.78
Market Price:
Under $2.28 Unibet
Over $1.65 Bet365
Value: Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $4.60
Adelaide – Head to Head – $6.00
Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix
Sunday 27 November, 5:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
The final game of the week looks a lop-sided affair; it’s Melbourne City vs Wellington. Melbourne City played Western Sydney away last week, and they put up a gallant effort. It was a tight match throughout, but when they broke through, I thought they’d win. And win they nearly did, expect for a late slip up in defense, deep in injury time, causing a goal. That goal left things at 1-1 when the final whistle was blown. Wellington was scheduled to play Melbourne Victory last week, but due to the earthquake in New Zealand, that game had to be postponed. In Round 6 though Wellington were in good form, travelling to Central Coast and coming away with a relatively easy 2-0 win. I’d be pretty shocked if Melbourne City didn’t add to their recent good form with another win here, this looks an easy match-up for them, so anything less than three points would be an underperformance in my opinion. The market thinks Melbourne City will win easy too, with the prices going up nearly the same as my rated prices. Thankfully there looks to be some in the Over/Under market again, this time it’s the Over 2.5 Goals at $1.55, I have it rated substantially shorter.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 4
Wellington 1
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.53
Wellington $6.80
Draw $5.00
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.54 Unibet
Wellington $6.00 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $4.33 Palmerbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.23
Wellington $5.44
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.20 William Hill
Wellington $4.60 Sportsbet, Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $4.27
Over $1.31
Market Price:
Under $2.50 Everywhere
Over $1.55 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne City/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.55
@AL_TheProfits
*Prices correct at time of writing
