Another week where we posted a slight winning result, but if you took the o2.5 in the Newcastle/Heart game then you would have had a good result for the weekend. After 7 rounds I think I have been rating long priced away underdogs a little too short, so slightly changing up my ratings model, less emphasis on teams home/away record and more on their overall record. Hopefully this should give me slightly more accurate pricings (there were times, including Central Coast last week, where I had the away team as a very short priced favourite, which in fact is rarely the case).
As we head into Round 8 there looks to be 2 teams that have made the most improvement since the season started, Brisbane who have cemented themselves as a top 4 team, on the way to possibly being a top 2 team, and Newcastle, who surprisingly look to be finals bound at this early stage of the season.
I’m confident that my new rating system will provide better results heading forward, hopefully kicking off this week with some good results.
Best Value: Western Sydney at $2.10 with Ladbrokes.
Second Best Value: Central Coast at $2.05 with TAB.
Central Coast v Melbourne Victory
Friday 29 November 7:30pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium
Once again we kick off the weekend with what looks to be the game of the round. Two highly touted teams, both underachieving slightly thus far, while showing moments of brilliance from time to time. Melbourne Victory haven’t beaten Central Coast for over 20 months and haven’t won on the road to Central Coast since 2009, that’s a long time between drinks at Bluetongue for the boys in blue. Both teams were probably lucky to come away with a win last week. Central Coast scoring the game winner in injury time and Melbourne Victory saving a penalty when 1-0 up with only 10 men, if Adelaide scored that penalty I’d say Melbourne Victory would of got away with 1 point at the most. Central Coast have only lost 1 game this season, and that was to a red hot Brisbane side, along with the home ground advantage (best home winning percentage in the league), Central Coast deserve to be a pretty short price favourite for this match. Even money or better is very enticing about the home side.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 2
Draw 2
Melbourne Victory 1
Rated Prices:
Central Coast $1.53
Draw $4.76
Melbourne Victory $7.30
Market:
Central Coast $2.05 TAB
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $3.75 Sportingbet
Best Value: Central Coast at $2.05 with TAB.
Brisbane v Perth
Saturday 30 November 4:30pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
The form team of the league gets another home game this week, and they have a lot lesser opponent in Perth than last week (Western Sydney). They were super impressive last week and I expect them to be pretty similar this week. While Perth haven’t been great so far this season, they haven’t been too bad, coming within minutes of taking 1 point out of their game last week against Central Coast, only to be denied by an injury time goal. The recent record between these 2 clubs is very even with the last 4 encounters being split evenly, 2 wins apiece. So everything is pointing to Brisbane, that is until you get to the price, with the market ridiculously close to my rated prices. In the current market I couldn’t back anything, I’d want either $1.70+ for Brisbane (obviously preferable), $5.50+ for the draw or $10.00+ for Perth to have a financial interest in this match, and I’ll doubt I’ll get any of those.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 3
Draw 0
Perth 2
Rated Prices:
Brisbane $1.51
Draw $4.77
Perth $7.91
Market:
Brisbane $1.47 Sportingbet, TAB
Draw $4.50 Sportsbet, Luxbet
Perth $8.00 Tatts, Luxbet, Sportsbet
Best Value: Nothing.
Sydney v Newcastle
Saturday 30 November 7:45pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
On Saturday night these 2 teams will have the chance to extend their winning streak to 4 games, a fairly impressive feat, especially for two of the lower ranked teams. The main reason most will be tuning in to this game is surely to watch this future star in Taggart. He has 5 goals in the last 2 weeks, including a hat trick last week, with all 3 goals being scored from outside the box, one of the most impressive individual A League performances I’ve seen in a while. Sydney’s home record puts them in good stead for this match and should make them very hard to beat, even with Bojic forced to sit on the sidelines after seeing red against Wellington last week. I thought Sydney with that home ground advantage would come up a touch of odds on when markets opened, and was pleasantly surprised to see as much as $2.20 on offer, that will do me. Another interesting note is that this fixture has had 3+ goals scored in 6 out of the last 7 meetings, making the over 2.5 goal market an enticing option if you don’t want to dive into Sydney.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Draw 1
Newcastle 2
Rated Prices:
Sydney $1.80
Draw $4.21
Newcastle $4.86
Market:
Sydney $2.20 Most Bookmakers
Draw $3.40 TAB, Sportsbet
Newcastle $3.30 Sportingbet, Sportsbet
Best Value: Sydney at $2.20 with most bookmakers.
Wellington v Western Sydney
Sunday 1 December 5:00pm (local) – Westpac Stadium
Western Sydney will be very disappointed with their loss last week to Brisbane and will be out to seek revenge, unfortunately for Wellington they are next in line to face the reining premiers. The fact Wellington still haven’t won a game this season speaks volumes, while they look to have improved on last years efforts, they are still a long way off the finals bound teams and will surely be see a Western Sydney in full flight on Sunday. At this stage I think Western Sydney are still the best team in the league and look to have a little upside heading deeper into the season. The chance that Hersi could be back from injury for the road team only further enhances Western Sydney’s prospects for this match. I think they should be a very short price favourite in this fixture and can easily take care of Wellington, I’m very keen on the $2.10 that Ladbrokes have at the moment and think they’ll surely start odds on.
Last 4 games:
Wellington 1
Draw 1
Western Sydney 2
Rated Prices:
Wellington $6.96
Draw $4.79
Western Sydney $1.54
Market:
Wellington $3.50 Most Bookmakers
Draw $3.50 TAB
Western Sydney $2.10 Ladbrokes
Best Value: Western Sydney at $2.10 with Ladbrokes.
Melbourne Heart v Adelaide
Sunday 1 December 5:00pm (local) – AAMI Stadium
We finish the round in Melbourne with what looks like the tightest game of the round. Both teams have some of the poorest form in the competition at the moment, with the advantage going to Adelaide as we know they have the ability to perform at a high level, whereas Melbourne Heart are yet to show very much at all so far this season. Adelaide are starting to run out of excuses now though, only managing to snag 5 points (1 win and 2 draws) from their first 7 games. Melbourne Heart have been missing their star signing, Kewell, since round 1 and will be desperately hoping that he is fit enough to take the field in some capacity this weekend, they need him. They haven’t managed a single point in their last 5 games, so something has to change. Adelaide’s 3-0 loss to Melbourne Victory isn’t as bad as it looks on paper, they had a chance to tie it up at 1-1 when lining up for a penalty. After a brilliant save by the keeper Coe, Melbourne Victory then went pretty much straight into attack and scored, putting the match out of Adelaide’s reach. Adelaide having to head to Melbourne for the second week in a row isn’t ideal for them, but I am surprised they aren’t favourite. I can’t recall a time in any sport when a team has lost their last 5 games, playing a team higher than them on the ladder and have started favourite (substantial favourite at that). At $3.40 Adelaide are great value to get their first win since round 1.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Heart 1
Draw 1
Adelaide 3
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Heart $2.93
Draw $3.58
Adelaide $2.64
Market:
Melbourne Heart $2.25 Betstar
Draw $3.40 Tatts, Sportsbet
Adelaide $3.40 Luxbet, Sportingbet
Best Value: Adelaide at $3.40 with Luxbet and Sportingbet.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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