It was a good round last weekend. We got Western Sydney up at a pretty short quote, but Sydney landing as well at $3.10 was a great. Unfortunately it could have been massive with the other two selection both leading in the second half (Adelaide and Brisbane), only to not be able to get the job done and go on with it, costing punters their hard earned. Still a profitable weekend though, hopefully can continue that form into this weekend. I’m a little nervous going with so many away teams this week, which I don’t usually like, but so many of the home teams have appeared to come up way under the odds and just aren’t feasible options.
Best Value: Western Sydney at $3.10 with Betstar, Sportsbet and Luxbet.
Second Best Value: Central Coast at $2.50 with Sportingbet and TAB.
Brisbane v Western Sydney
Friday 22 November 7:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
We kick off the weekend with the match of the round. It’s a top of the table battle, with the winner taking that top position going into next week. While Brisbane has a good home record (winning 60%), Western Sydney has an unbelievable away record, winning an unprecedented 75% of their games on the road. Add to the fact Western Sydney have won all 4 meetings with Brisbane, I’m guessing you can see which way I’m leaning with this match. I’m actually very keen on Western Sydney and still think them and Central Coast are clearly the best two teams in the league. If they can get all 3 points up at Brisbane they will stamp themselves as a deserved premiership favourite. I’m bewildered how Brisbane has come up favourites here when they have never even got 1 point out of their games with Western Sydney. Western Sydney is the best value of the round in my opinion.
Last 4 games:
Brisbane 0
Draw 0
Western Sydney 4
Rated Prices:
Brisbane $7.43
Draw $4.85
Western Sydney $1.52
Market:
Brisbane $2.40 TAB
Draw $3.40 TAB
Western Sydney $3.10 Betstar, Sportsbet, Luxbet
Best Value: Western Sydney at $3.10 with Betstar, Sportsbet and Luxbet.
Sydney v Wellington
Saturday 23 November 5:30pm (local) – Allianz Park
Sydney is back home this week where they have been pretty good all season, winning 2 out of their 3 games, only losing to Western Sydney. I think suddenly people are dropping right off Sydney, we’ve only had 6 rounds and pre season they were at the pointy end of the futures’ markets (that being said I thought they were overrated at that point). Sydney also has won the last 2 encounters they have had with Wellington, which is a positive sign. Now Wellington didn’t play last week, so the players should be well and truly ready for this weekend’s match, but still look to be outclassed by this Sydney side. On the downside, Sydney’s price isn’t fantastic. They are still value, but I’m not clambering to snap up the price, looks to be better value in other matches if you don’t want to play every game.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Draw 0
Wellington 3
Rated Prices:
Sydney $1.61
Draw $4.47
Wellington $6.42
Market:
Sydney $1.75 TAB
Draw $3.75 Sportsbet
Wellington $5.50 Sportingbet
Best Value: Sydney at $1.75 with TAB.
Perth v Central Coast
Saturday 23 November 6:30pm (local) – NIB Stadium
Another game I really like the look of with one of the top 2 teams, Central Coast (other Western Sydney) playing what looks like a non-finals team. I have Central Coast rated as the shortest price favourite of the week and I’m very keen on the $2.50 that a couple of the books are offering. Central Coast has the second best road record in the league, which should take them a long way in this match. While Perth did surprise me by being able to come away with a point in their game last week against Adelaide, I still doubt their overall ability. Central Coast were lucky enough to have last week off and would have been studying this game for some time now, that combined with their fresh legs should prove far too good for Perth. Similar to Western Sydney earlier in the round this looks like another great bet for the weekend, class should prevail.
Last 5 games:
Perth 2
Draw 1
Central Coast 2
Rated Prices:
Perth $8.33
Draw $5.04
Central Coast $1.47
Market:
Perth $2.90 Tatts, Sportsbet
Draw $3.40 TAB
Central Coast $2.50 Sportingbet, TAB
Best Value: Central Coast at $2.50 with Sportingbet and TAB.
Melbourne Victory v Adelaide
Saturday 23 November 7:45pm (local) – Etihad Stadium
This will be a cracking match at Etihad for a Saturday night. Probably the biggest rivalry in the A League, it will be a hard fought battle till the end. Both these teams look to be sitting just off the pace of the top 2 teams (Central Coast and Western Sydney). That’s why I was so surprised when I seen the price difference in the 2 teams, I thought they would be a lot closer in the market. Melbourne Victory has a good home record (winning 56%) and should prove hard to beat, but Adelaide is a formidable foe and tensions are always high for this fixture. Adelaide also has the better record than Melbourne Victory in recent times for this fixture. For the record I am a Melbourne Victory fan and I will be cheering my hardest for them from my seat at Etihad Stadium on the weekend, but there is no way in hell I could entertain backing them at $1.77 (shorter than that everywhere other than Sportingbet). Adelaide is, while not the value of a few of the teams in the other games for the round, no doubt still value at $4.65.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 1
Draw 2
Adelaide 2
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Victory $2.23
Draw $3.85
Adelaide $3.42
Market:
Melbourne Victory $1.77 Sportingbet
Draw $3.75 Sportsbet
Adelaide $4.65 Sportingbet
Best Value: Adelaide at $4.65 with Sportingbet
Newcastle v Melbourne Heart
Sunday 24 November 5:00pm (local) – Hunter Stadium
We finish the weekend with what looks like one of the toughest games to work out. First thing to note is that we should get an entertaining game if nothing else, assuming you like to see goals. In the 9 games these 2 teams have played each other, the minimum goals scored in a match has been 2, with the average a tick over 3 goals a game. Luxbet and Tatts are both serving up $2.00 for over 2.5 goals, looks to be tremendous value if you like an over/under bet. Back to the match at hand, Melbourne Heart’s away form is atrocious, winning 1 game from their past 17 matches. These are the matches I hate, because on my rankings I have Newcastle as a clear favourite, but not as short as the market has them, which in turn means I’ve got Melbourne Heart at a shorter price than the bookies are putting up. So if I had to have a bet on the H2H market it would be Melbourne Heart, as I do believe they are the value in the match. Their terrible road record and the fact we aren’t getting a huge amount of overs means I’ll be leaving this last game alone. Taking the over 2.5 goals looks the best play if you want something on the last game of the weekend.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 2
Draw 1
Melbourne Heart 2
Rated Prices:
Newcastle $2.28
Draw $3.85
Melbourne Heart $3.31
Market:
Newcastle $1.94 Betstar
Draw $3.55 TAB
Melbourne Heart $4.35 Luxbet
Best Value: Nothing.
