Best Value
Perth – Draw No Bet – $3.75
My best value of the week is a bit of a long shot, while I have no doubts that Sydney should be favourite, I think Perth are well over the odds. They let their fans down the last couple of weeks, but I keep going back to their away win over Melbourne City a few weeks back. If they play like that they can knock Sydney off their unbeaten perch. With money back for the draw, I think the $3.75 is too good to refuse.
Next Best Value
Central Coast/Wellington – Over 2.5 goals – $1.65
This is another case of two teams with pretty average defenses playing each other; it generally means one thing, goals. I’m more than happy to be on the Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture, both teams should be able to score which means we’re more than likely to see 3, 4 or 5 goals scored. I’ve rated the Overs quite a bit shorter than the $1.62 that is around at the moment.
Round 6 Best Value
1st: Perth – Draw No Bet – $3.75
2nd: Central Coast/Wellington – Over 2.5 goals – $1.65
3rd: Wellington – Draw no Bet – $2.07
4th: Adelaide/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets
Thursday 10 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Round 6 kicks-off earlier than usual this week with a one-sided affair between Melbourne City and Newcastle getting under way on Thursday evening. Melbourne City were a little disappointing last week, they ended up losing 1-0 to Brisbane on the road. Maclaren scored for Brisbane very early in the game, from then on Melbourne City dominated possession, but they just couldn’t get any shots away. For the whole game they only pulled the trigger 3 times, and none of those were even on target. Newcastle had to travel to New Zealand last Saturday when they took on Wellington. It was no surprise to see them go down 2-0, they’re never really a decent road team, so they might be in trouble again this week, they’ll be looking forward to getting back to Hunter Stadium next week. Melbourne City has been pretty solid all season thus far, and this is just another stepping-stone for them. I’ve no doubt they’ll win and win easy. Market prices are all pretty spot on and at this stage I can’t really be tempted into anything, might have to sit this early game out.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 3
Newcastle 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.57
Newcastle $6.83
Draw $4.60
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.44 Everywhere
Newcastle $7.00 Unibet
Draw $4.75 Bet365, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.23
Newcastle $5.35
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.18 Bet365
Newcastle $5.60 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62
Market Price:
Under $2.80 Unibet
Over $1.48 Bet365
Value: No value
Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar
Friday 11 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
After a slow start Brisbane have now won three on the trot, and they’ll be looking to make it four when they travel to Adelaide on Friday night. I lost all confidence I had in Adelaide last week, they’d had a tough start to the season, but it wasn’t the easiest of opening fixtures so I gave them some slack. But last week, hosting Central Coast and losing, they’re really against the ropes now. They scored first and no one would have thought Central Coast could come back, but they did. It was a workman like performance from Brisbane last week when they hosted Melbourne City. They broke away with an early lead and clung onto that for the rest of the game. They’ll want to hold more possession this week though as they really struggled with that against Melbourne City. This is a real tight one, I don’t know which way to go, if you ignore last week, I think Adelaide is the team to beat, but after that loss to Central Coast, they have to prove to me that they can still play like we know they can. Saying that, the Head to Head market looks too risky to me anyway, I like the Over 2.5 Goals instead as Adelaide’s last four games have all gone overs.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 3
Brisbane 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $2.49
Brisbane $3.05
Draw $3.70
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.50 Bet365
Brisbane $2.80 Everywhere
Draw $3.50 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.81
Brisbane $2.23
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.78 Unibet
Brisbane $2.04 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.81
Over $1.55
Market Price:
Under $2.10 William Hill
Over $1.75 TAB
Value:
Adelaide/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday 12 November, 5:35pm (AEDT) – GIO Stadium
Central Coast and Wellington both won their first games of the season last week, and they’ll both be fighting away to make it two on the trot. I still don’t know how, but Central Coast came away with a 2-1 win from their trip to Adelaide last week. They fell a goal behind around the half hour mark, but they found the net twice from only two shots on target in the second half. Adelaide has been very poor so far this season, but take nothing away from Central Coast, it was a good win. Wellington’s win was more to be expected, while they hadn’t had a victory yet, at home to Newcastle gave them every chance to break their duck. They did so in relatively easy fashion with Krishna burying two in the first half. They then managed to sit on that 2-0 lead till the final whistle. I was impressed with Central Coast last week, but I definitely think Wellington have more upside going forward, and they should be able to make it two wins in two weeks. I also think Wellington is a more than reasonable price and at the current mark of $2.75 ($2.05 in the Draw No Bet market) they are more than backable. The best value in the match has to be the Over 2.5 Goals though, I dare say there will be a few goals in this one.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 2
Wellington 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $3.25
Wellington $2.40
Draw $3.62
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.58 Unibet
Wellington $2.75 Bet365
Draw $3.50 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.36
Wellington $1.74
Market Price:
Central Coast $1.87 Unibet
Wellington $2.07 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.70
Over $1.37
Market Price:
Under $2.33 Unibet
Over $1.65 TAB
Value:
Central Coast/Wellington – Over 2.5 goals – $1.65
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.07
Wellington – Head to Head – $2.75
Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 12 November, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium
The big blockbuster of the round is on Saturday night when Melbourne Victory play host to Western Sydney. Melbourne Victory is coming off a tough loss last week to Sydney. They took it up to them for most of the game, but Sydney had too many guns when it came down to it and ended up winning the match 2-1. Even though it was a loss, it was a valiant effort from Melbourne Victory. Western Sydney stole a point from their game over in Perth last week. It looked like though were going to lose 2-1, but thanks to Santalab, who has saved them many times this season, they dragged a goal back to share the honours. They were disappointing in Round 4, so they’ll be much happier with how they played last week. While Western Sydney are in this, I think Melbourne Victory deserve to be a strong favourite. They’re starting to play better after a couple of rough performances to start the season. Once again there doesn’t really appear to be any value in the match to my eye. If Melbourne Victory drift out a little bit, they might be worth a play, but if anything I see their price coming in.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Western Sydney 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.09
Western Sydney $3.77
Draw $3.90
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.15 Bet365
Western Sydney $3.50 Sportsbet
Draw $3.60 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.55
Western Sydney $2.80
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.57 Bet365, William Hill
Western Sydney $2.67 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.32
Over $1.76
Market Price:
Under $2.28 Unibet
Over $1.68 Sportsbet, Palmerbet
Value: No value
Sydney FC v Perth Glory
Sunday 13 November, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
This is the game I’m most looking forward to from Round 6, the unbeaten Sydney against Perth, who I think is better than their record shows. Sydney hosted Melbourne Victory last week, and in a tough brawl they ended up coming up 2-1 winners. I’m not 100% sure if they deserved all three points, Melbourne Victory missed a penalty as well as had goal waived away for offside, but they did get the win, and kept their unbeaten record for the 2016/17 season. After coming back from 1-0 down, Perth managed to get to 2-1 up over Western Sydney last week. Unfortunately, the game didn’t end there though , with Western Sydney scoring again, leaving Perth to have to settle with just a draw. I was expecting them to win, but it wasn’t the worst effort, and they’ll continue to improve. Sydney should be able to make it six on the trot, but I doubt it will be the walk in the park the most think it will be. I personally think Perth is great value at $5.00, but I am cautious of how good Sydney have been playing, so I think Perth at $3.75 with money back for a draw is probably the best way to attack this fixture.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 3
Perth 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $2.31
Perth $3.38
Draw $3.69
Market Price:
Sydney $1.73 Palmerbet
Perth $5.00 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $3.80 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.68
Perth $2.47
Market Price:
Sydney $1.30 William Hill
Perth $3.75 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.84
Over $1.54
Market Price:
Under $2.38 Unibet
Over $1.61 Palmerbet
Value:
Perth – Draw No Bet – $3.75
Perth – Head to Head – $5.00
*Prices correct at time of writing
