Last week was certainly full of surprises in the A-League. While the Friday night game certainly gave us the right result, not much else worked out for the week. Our best value got the first goal but then went down hill from there while the game against Brisbane by CCM was poor considering the outs for the Roar. All you can do is go back to the drawing board and keep sticking to the strategy.
Best Value: Adelaide at $4.20 with Sportsbet
Second Best Value: Brisbane at $2.40 with TAB
Melbourne Heart v Sydney
Friday 15 November 7:30pm (local) – AAMI Park
We kick off the week on Friday night in what looks to be the closest match of the round. Could swing either way, Melbourne Heart have had a fairly tough draw so far and this looks one of their best chances of getting their first win for the season. Sydney has been decent without being over the top exciting so far. Melbourne Heart’s real problem looks to be in finding the back of the net, they have only managed to in 1 of their 5 games so far this season. Their attacking has look dangerous at times, but just lacks the finishing touches, Williams’ crosses are often some of the most dangerous in the league. And Mifsud, both Aloisi and Melbourne Heart fans alike are waiting for this guy to break through, he’s looked likely, and once he does it could open the flood gates for himself and the rest of the team. Sydney somehow managed to pull out a win last week against Melbourne Victory, even when down a man for a good part of the game. They can’t always expect Del Piero to have the plethora of free kicks from around the box that he had last week though. Again this should be a pretty tight affair, but I think the odds should be flipped, with Melbourne Heart struggling to find the goals, I have to go with Sydney here. The draw also looks to be pretty much right on the mark, so if you’re a little discouraged by Sydney’s less than stellar away record and don’t mind taking the shorts, you can get at least $1.55 for Sydney +.5 goals. I’ve got to stick with Sydney straight out though, I really think they should be favourites for this match up.
Last 5 games
Melbourne Heart 2
Draw 2
Sydney 1
Rated Prices
Melbourne Heart $3.17
Draw $3.63
Sydney $2.44
Market
Melbourne Heart $2.32 Betstar
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet
Sydney $3.10 Sportsbet
Best Value: Sydney at $3.10 with Sportsbet
Perth v Adelaide
Saturday 16 November 2:30pm (local) – NIB Stadium
Can’t wait for this match on Saturday afternoon. Adelaide looks to be such good value as the long underdog in this game. Similar to the opening game I think the odds should be nearly exactly the other way around, only difference is this time there’s a big gap in the prices, with the market having Perth odds-on when I think it should be Adelaide that’s tomato sauce odds. Both teams are coming off lack-luster performances and will definitely want to make it up this week. Adelaide has only headed over to Perth once in the last 2 years and they came away with a draw there, so you wouldn’t think the trip should affect them much. Perth is coming off the big trip to New Zealand 7 days earlier and could be a little fatigued. Perth’s record so far this season looks good, but it’s been a very soft draw, you can’t imagine they’ll stay towards the top of the table for too much longer. After Adelaide gave Perth a 3-1 touch-up in round 1, I struggle to see how the market has the market they way it does. I’m pretty keen to have a crack at Adelaide here and think the $4.20 is outstanding value, can’t imagine they start near that on Saturday.
Last 5 games
Perth 1
Draw 2
Adelaide 2
Rated Prices
Perth $4.36
Draw $3.93
Adelaide $1.94
Market
Perth $1.92 Sportingbet
Draw $3.60 Sportsbet
Adelaide $4.20 Sportsbet
Best Value: Adelaide at $4.20 with Sportsbet
Western Sydney v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 16 November 7:45pm (local) – Pirtek Stadium
We’re lucky enough to have the match of the round for Saturday night viewing. 2 of the top 4 teams clash here in what should be a cracker of a match. Western Sydney deserves to be a short price favourite here, the have a good home record, without being outstanding. They have had a great start to the season, not losing a single game and you’d say they should be able to continue that form this weekend. Melbourne Victory definitely has the firepower to beat top teams, but a sometimes sloppy defense is costing them dearly. Their loss last week to Sydney, when a man up for a good portion of the game was very disappointing, I expected more from them. Hersi and Juric out will slightly hurt Western Sydney, but I think they have enough depth to not lose too much upfront while they are out. Western Sydney should come away with a compressive victory, the only problem is the price is nothing to write home about. While the $1.73 is still a more than acceptable price, they doesn’t represent a whole lot of value, only 11c better than my rated price, but I guess that’s better than unders.
Last 2 games
Western Sydney 2
Draw 0
Melbourne Victory 1
Rated Prices
Western Sydney $1.62
Draw $4.53
Melbourne Victory $6.18
Market
Western Sydney $1.73 Sportsbet
Draw $3.75 Sportingbet
Melbourne Victory $5.00 Ladbrokes
Best Value: Western Sydney at $1.73 with Sportsbet
Newcastle v Brisbane
Sunday 17 November 5:00pm (local) – Hunter Stadium
We wrap up the round with what I think looks the most 1 sided match of the round. In the 13 times Brisbane has travelled to Newcastle, the home side has only ever won once, a less than flattering stat for Newcastle. Brisbane have been flying this season, highlighted by their win against Central Coast on the road last week, they are really putting themselves into title contention. Newcastle, while playing better than many expected will most likely struggle against this great attacking side. When first looking at this match I thought for sure Brisbane would be odds-on, but was pleasantly surprised when I saw that TAB were happy to give away $2.40 for the top of the table Brisbane, it really defies logic. This looks one of the good bets of the weekend and being the last game of the round, I’m sure most will be cheering on Brisbane to top off their weekend on the punt.
Last 5 games
Newcastle 2
Draw 1
Brisbane 2
Rated Prices
Newcastle $6.93
Draw $4.77
Brisbane $1.55
Market:
Newcastle $3.20 Ladbrokes/Sportsbet
Draw $3.40 Betstar/Sportsbet/Sportingbet
Brisbane $2.40 TAB
Best Value: Brisbane at $2.40 with TAB
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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