We are now four full rounds into the 2013/14 season and I don’t think anyone would have been shocked at the start of the year if you told them the Roar, WSW, Victory, Glory and Mariners would all be sitting in the top 5 of the ladder. Round 5 is set to be a cracking round with some very even matches on offer unlike last Round. Hopefully we can point you towards some nice value this week!

Best Value: Perth at $3.55 with Tatts
Second Best Value: Central Coast at $2.30 at TAB

Melbourne Heart v Western Sydney

Friday 8 November 7:30pm (local) – AAMI Park

So, no Kewell again. I’d imagine Melbourne Heart fans are starting to get a little tired of their star signings injury excuses, especially with all the rumors splashing around about him. This doesn’t help a team that has struggled to find form so far this season, with 2 draws and 2 loses thus far, granted they did start well last week against Brisbane, only to fail dismally in the second half. Western Sydney on the other hand are really starting to hit their straps, with back-to-back wins getting them up to second on the ladder. It looks like Western Sydney just have to turn up and they’ll get the 3 points out of this game. And how good has this kid Juric been, looks a different player to when he played for Adelaide last season, he will know doubt have an impact again. They’ve won every game they have played against Melbourne Heart and I can’t see that changing on Friday. The $1.83 that Sportsbet are offering looks incredibly good and surely they won’t be that price come kick off.

Last 3 games
Melbourne Heart        0
Draw                          0
Western Sydney        3

Rated Prices
Melbourne Heart        $8.53
Draw                          $5.08
Western Sydney        $1.46

Market 
Melbourne Heart        $4.50   TAB/Sportingbet
Draw                          $3.60   TAB/Sportsbet
Western Sydney        $1.83   Sportsbet

Best Value: Western Sydney at $1.83 with Sportsbet

Wellington v Perth

Saturday 9 November 5:00pm (local) – AMI Stadium

Is this Wellington team a different one to last year, with multiple new inclusions, highlighted by Hernandez they might just be. He has been great, and at times brilliant in the yellow and black this season, but unfortunately he is yet to help them chalk up a victory. Perth has been decent this season, getting in done in the matches they needed to, with 1-0 wins over both Sydney and Melbourne Heart. This is also the biggest road trip of any team for the season, Perth to New Zealand, which could affect the Perth boys. I still have to have Perth as clear favourites for this match, with their records of the two teams so far this season, I can’t understand why Wellington are such a short price. $3.55 for a team that I have as just odds on looks to be the best value of the round.

Last 5 games
Wellington                  2
Draw                           2
Perth                          1

Rated Prices 
Wellington                  $4.07
Draw                          $4.05
Perth                          $1.97

Market   
Wellington                  $2.20   Sportingbet
Draw                          $3.45   TAB
Perth                          $3.55   Tatts

Best Value: Perth at $3.55 with Tatts

Adelaide v Newcastle

Saturday 9 November 5:00pm (local) – Coopers Stadium

The fact people are starting to pot Adelaide a little is laughable. “They only have 4 points from 4 games” and the like, you just wonder what people saying this are thinking. So far they have had a dominate win over Perth, a draw with Melbourne Victory and 2 single goal losses to the best 2 teams, Central Coast and Western Sydney. Newcastle is yet to land a win this season, and they haven’t excited me in any games from what I’ve seen so far either. They finally scored a couple of goals last week, but one was due to poor defending by Central Coast, the other was due to atrocious defending by Central Coast. Newcastle will struggle to score down in Adelaide and that’s something the home team won’t have an issue with. Expecting an easy win for Adelaide. Hopefully for Newcastle Heskey can make his first appearance this season and give them a much needed boost.

Last 5 games 
Adelaide                     1
Draw                           3
Newcastle                   1

Rated Prices  
Adelaide                      $1.54
Draw                           $4.69
Newcastle                   $7.26

Market   
Adelaide                      $2.00   Tatts/Ladbrokes/Sportsbet
Draw                           $3.50   TAB/Sportingbet/Sportsbet
Newcastle                   $3.90   Sportingbet/Luxbet

Best Value: Adelaide at $2.00 with Tatts/Ladbrokes/Sportsbet

Sydney v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 9 November 7:45pm (local) – Allianz Stadium

One of the biggest rivalries in the A League comes up this week, The Big Blue. Melbourne Victory will want to continue their strong start to the season (2 wins and 2 draws) while Farina’s boys need to start racking up a few points, slipping lower on the table each week. All eyes will be on the exciting Troisi, seeing if he can find the back of the net yet again, he’s been stunning in the early stages of the season. An interesting stat to note is that this fixture has resulted in clearly more draws than any other result, unfortunately there is usually little to no value in the straight draw market, and that’s again the case in this match. Melbourne Victory just have to reproduce their current form and they will go very close to bringing the 3 points with them back to Victoria. Can’t see the $2.40 available at Sportingbet lasting all that long.

Last 5 games
Sydney                       1
Draw                           2
Melbourne Victory       2

Rated Prices 
Sydney                       $4.42
Draw                           $3.79
Melbourne Victory      $1.96

Market 
Sydney                       $3.10   Sportsbet
Draw                           $3.40   Most Bookmakers
Melbourne Victory      $2.40   Sportingbet

Best Value: Melbourne Victory at $2.40 with Sportingbet

Central Coast v Brisbane

Sunday 10 November 5:00pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium

There’s only 1 game this Sunday, lucky it’s a good one, and with great value to be had as an added bonus. Both teams have intentions to finish the season at the pointy end of the ladder, Brisbane are already there, while Central Coast is not quite at this early stage. Central Coast has been under achieving to some extent, they have been putting in good performances, but are just lacking a consistent 90 minute effort at this stage. Their defending against the 2 goals Newcastle scored last week was abysmal and I’m sure they would of heard about it in the locker room after the game. Coming back home this week they should just get the job done against Brisbane. Brisbane has been good so far, and all you can do is win, but they have had an extremely cushy start to the season. Of the 4 games they’ve played, most likely only 1 of those teams is finals bound (Melbourne Victory) and they lost that match. Combine this with Central Coast’s excellent home record, winning 81% of games at Bluetongue Stadium, Brisbane will really struggle to stay in touch with Central Coast here. I’ll be jumping all over the early Christmas present the TAB is giving away, $2.30 for Central Coast.

Last 5 games 
Central Coast             2
Draw                           1
Brisbane                     2

Rated Prices
Central Coast              $1.48
Draw                           $5.13
Brisbane                      $7.82

Market  
Central Coast              $2.30   TAB
Draw                           $3.45   TAB
Brisbane                      $3.30   Tatts

Best Value: Central Coast at $2.30 at TAB