Round 3 was another success. The weekend started a little rough when Brisbane surprisingly went down 2-0 to Sydney, I only had 3 selections for the week, after missing the first I thought the winning streak was going to be all over.
The following night was the big Melbourne Derby. The selection of Over 2.5 Goals couldn’t of been any easier, 3 goals were racked up within the half hour mark, making the remainder of the match and enjoyable, stress free watch, especially if you are a Melbourne Victory fan.
Then I had Adelaide hosting Perth and we needed the home team to take out all 3 points. This was another stress free watch as Adelaide dominated the majority of the play and Perth never really threatened. Adelaide ran out easy winners, finishing with a 2-0 score line.
The other game for the round was Wellington and Newcastle. There didn’t look to be any value in this match up so I left it alone. Phoenix put the sword to the Jets pretty quickly in an impressive offensive performance.
This season is really starting to ramp up, we’re hitting Round 4 and by now teams should be finding their groove. Once again with Western Sydney having other commitments we only have 4 games on this week, the Wanderers and Roar will play their match in a month’s time.
There doesn’t appear to be any blockbuster matches this week but Melbourne City and Adelaide should be a good match, City need to find a win if they are going to be counted for this season. Also Melbourne Victory and Wellington should be interesting, being played on a Monday night, I think they might get a decent crowd for Victory’s first AAMI Park game this season.
My ratings are getting very accurate, which is a good thing, problem is they are aligning with the bookmakers price so closely, and it’s not throwing up many selections. So once again this week selections are at a bare minimum, hopefully it still produces a winning week though. From next week onwards I will lower the value threshold that determines my selections.
Under each game it does tell you who I think will win, and even though I think it might not be great value to back a team, if my preview gives you more confidence in something you were already thinking of backing don’t let me hold you back.
I keep track of how my selections are going using two different staking methods, “betting 1x unit” and “betting to win 1x unit”. I’ll use $100 for a unit, and a $2.40 selection for example. In “betting 1x unit” it would involve betting $100 at $2.40, producing a profit of $140. In “betting to win 1x unit” it would involve betting $71.43 at $2.40, producing a profit of $100.
So for those that want to know how I’m tracking so far, after Round 3, if you took all the selections so far in “betting 1x unit” it would of produced a 32.37% POT (profit on turnover) and if you were “betting to win 1x unit” it would of produced a 36.61% POT.
Anyway we’ve had 3 winning weeks so far; let’s hope the good run continues.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.50.
2nd: Perth Glory/ Newcastle Jets – Overs 2.5 Goals – $2.05.
Melbourne City v Adelaide United
Friday 31 October, 7:40pm (local) – AAMI Park
The opening game of Round 4 see’s Melbourne City hosting Adelaide United in what looks the highlight of the round. Melbourne City is coming off a very average performance in the Melbourne Derby. The first half was pretty good, just before the half time whistle they led 2-1, but they then allowed a late goal to tie it up at the break. Melbourne Victory dominated the second half and they added another 3 goals to the board, a 5-2 loss was definitely not the result City were after in the Derby. Adelaide was expected to win against Perth, and that’s just what they did. They controlled the match from the onset and never looked in doubt, the way you want a short price favourite to win a match. I think heading to AAMI Park, in front of a big home crowd, Melbourne City should be able to chalk up their first win of the season. I rate them $2.12 and as much as $2.50 is available. There isn’t enough value in the Draw No Bet market and bookies look to have the Over/Under spot on, so just the Head to Head for this match.
Last 5 games
Melbourne City 1
Draw 3
Adelaide 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Melbourne City $2.12
Draw $3.84
Adelaide $3.73
Market Price
Melbourne City $2.50 Ladbrokes
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet, Bet365
Adelaide $3.10 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Melbourne City $1.57
Adelaide $2.76
Market Price
Melbourne City $1.70 Sportingbet, Centrebet
Adelaide $2.20 Luxbet, Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.81
Under $2.23
Market Price
Over $1.81 Unibet
Under $2.02 Luxbet
Value: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.50.
Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets
Saturday 1 November, 7:30pm (local) – NIB Stadium
This week it’s Newcastle that have to make the dreaded trek across to Western Australia to face Perth Glory. Perth is coming off a 2-0 loss to Adelaide, but in fairness most expected them to lose. That being said, they didn’t really show a lot of fight and Adelaide dominated basically the whole match, they won’t be able to play like that this week if they want the win. Newcastle were pretty similar last week, not expected to win, and never looked like doing so, they got handled by Wellington, losing 4-1, in what was a pretty poor performance. Perth getting back to home should be hard to beat, they have a better than average record at NIB Stadium and they have a good Head to Head record against Newcastle, I think they should be about an even money favourite for this match up. Unfortunately the bookmakers also think they should be an even money favourite (at best) so going to have to steer clear of the Head to Head and Draw No Bet markets. Luckily for some reason the market has Under 2.5 Goals the favourite in the totals market, I don’t understand that, definitely think this game looks destined to have 3+ goals scored, so in a lean week for value, I think the $2.05 for Over 2.5 Goals is something that we can latch onto.
Last 5 games
Perth 4
Draw 0
Newcastle 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Perth $2.01
Draw $3.83
Newcastle $4.13
Market Price
Perth $2.00 Unibet, Bet365
Draw $3.50 Ladbrokes
Newcastle $4.00 Ladbrokes
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Perth $1.49
Newcastle $3.05
Market Price
Perth $1.40 Sportingbet
Newcastle $3.25 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.81
Under $2.23
Market Price
Over $2.05 Bet365
Under $1.79 Sportsbet
Value: Perth Glory/ Newcastle Jets – Overs 2.5 Goals – $2.05.
Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 2 November, 5:00pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
This Sunday we’ve got an all NSW fixture to keep us entertained. Sydney who I think have been one of the most impressive teams so far host Central Coast, who have probably been one of the more disappointing sides. Sydney is coming off a big performance last week when they headed to Brisbane and took all 3 points back home with them. They actually won quite easily, something I really didn’t see coming, they might be the real deal this season. Central Coast were meant to face Western Sydney, but with their opposition having other duties they got the week off, they should be full of running after a mini break and I expect them to throw everything they have at this match. Even with Central Coast having the break I have no doubt that Sydney should be a short priced favourite for this. They are outstanding when playing at home, and their overall record this season has been great. I have them rated right down at $1.77, but unfortunately the best price in the standard market at the moment is $1.80, which is enough to entice me. If they got out to $1.95 then I’d be diving in, but at this stage I can’t touch it. And unfortunately that applies to the other two markets that I have assessed, I think Sydney will be extremely hard to beat, but they just don’t appear to be any value at the moment.
Last 5 games
Sydney 2
Draw 0
Central Coast 3
Head to Head
Rated Price
Sydney $1.77
Draw $4.28
Central Coast $4.96
Market Price
Sydney $1.87 Luxbet
Draw $3.50 Everywhere
Central Coast $4.20 Sportsbet, Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Sydney $1.36
Central Coast $3.80
Market Price
Sydney $1.35 Sportingbet
Central Coast $3.32 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.82
Under $2.22
Market Price
Over $1.80 Bet365
Under $2.00 Bet365, Luxbet
Value: None.
Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix
Monday 3 November, 7:30pm (local) – AAMI Park
We get some Monday night football this week, and for Victorian’s it’s the night before a public holiday, so even better. Current league leaders Melbourne Victory host Wellington Phoenix and they will pack out AAMI Park. So far Victory’s two home games have produced a staggering 12 goals, and once again I can see the ball hitting the back of the net plenty so if you’re in Melbourne and have the Tuesday off I suggest getting yourself some tickets. Melbourne Victory is coming off a stunning performance last week, it was the big Derby and they took out the honours in a big way winning 5-2. The first half was pretty even, but they dominated play in the second and it was always a matter of just how much they would win by. Wellington were also big winners last week, winning 4-1 over an average Newcastle outfit, but all you can do is win, and boy did they. There is no doubt that Melbourne Victory should be a very short favourite for this match, I have them as the shortest of the week right down at $1.65, I doubt they’ll disappoint. This is unfortunately another game where the market just looks to be spot on, can’t scrap a penny out of them in the Head to Head or the Draw No Bet markets. I was thinking, it’s ok, I’ll get to the Over 2.5 Goals and we’ll have a selection (selected both Victory home games to go over and they did) but then realized that $1.61 was the best available, and I think that’s actually a little of unders, at the current prices I prefer the Under 2.5 Goals. So that leaves us with another game with no selections, apologies.
Last 5 games
Melbourne Victory 4
Draw 0
Wellington 1
Head to Head
Rated Price
Melbourne Victory $1.65
Draw $4.49
Wellington $5.83
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $1.60 Ladbrokes, Unibet
Draw $4.50 Bet365
Wellington $4.65 Sportingbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price
Melbourne Victory $1.28
Wellington $4.53
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $1.28 Sportingbet
Wellington $4.20 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price
Over $1.68
Under $2.48
Market Price
Over $1.61 Unibet
Under $2.55 Luxbet
Value: None.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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