How about Round 2, after a nice Round 1, the second week was just about a home run. Of the 10 selections that went up, 6 landed, 1 was a refund and there were 3 loses. With even staking it would of produced 47% profit on turnover, can’t want any much than that.
It didn’t all come easier though, with come from behind victories from both Sydney FC and Perth Glory, I may have been sweating bullets at certain stages of the weekend, but they both got there in the end so that’s what matters.
Now it’s obviously only early days but so far the 3 Over/Under selections I’ve had have landed and of the 5 Draw No Bet selections, 3 have paid out and the other 2 were refunds. It will be interesting to keep track as the season progresses to see if these are strengths in my rating system, or just early flukes.
So what was the Round 2 highlights from a non-punting view? I thought Perth was very good again, but I kind have expected that, still can’t believe they were favourites, anyway. Melbourne Victory continue to impress me, I don’t think they had any right to return from Adelaide with a point, but they did. It looked like it was going to be a 0-0 draw until Cirio scored for the home side in the last 10 minutes, but then Victory showed their strength by finding an equaliser only minutes later to redeem that valuable point.
I’m getting very confident in my ratings and think I have them pretty spot on, the only downside to that is I think the people doing the pricing for the bookmakers are in the same position. Went from last week having 10 selections to this week with only 3, although having one less game to work with didn’t help either.
I have a certain value threshold a price has to reach before I declare it as a selection, if the prices continue to be so similar I might have to reduce my threshold by a couple of points. For instance I have Adelaide in the DNB market rated $1.33, and $1.44 is available, while I obviously think this price is value, I don’t think it represents enough value to make it a selection. If I do lower my threshold in the future there’s every chance I would suggest something like this is a selection.
Anyway, onto the matches, as Round 3 rolls around you’ll notice there’s only 4 games as the Western Sydney/Central Coast match has been postponed for a few weeks and will take place on November 14. There looks to be a couple of exciting matches this weekend, but the highlight has to be the Melbourne Derby.
Last week we had the Sydney Derby and it didn’t disappoint, a great crowd and a thrilling match. Now it’s up to Melbourne to produce something similar. Melbourne Victory has been playing great so far this season and you couldn’t expect much more from them thus far. Melbourne City on the other hand played well in Round 1 but everyone expected them to get the win at home last week against Newcastle but they could only manage a draw. It should be a cracking match; I’ll be in the crowd that you’d imagine would have to get close to 50k.
Brisbane Roar and Sydney FC should also make for some good Friday night viewing. I think Brisbane will start to show their true self and put in a big performance, but they’ll have to be on their toes as Sydney having been playing very well.
Ok, enough of that, onto what you really want to read about, how I see each game and where I reckon we can squeeze a few bucks out of the bookies this weekend.
Started the season with back-to-back winning weeks, let’s keep this ball rolling.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.10.
2nd: Melbourne Victory/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
3rd: Adelaide United – Head to Head – $2.00.
Brisbane Roar v Sydney FC
Friday 24 October, 8:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
Round 3 kicks off in a great way on Friday night with Brisbane Roar playing host to Sydney FC. Brisbane are coming off a decent enough performance last week, while a lot of people were expecting them to beat Perth I was in the other party and thought they’d be up against it. They took the game right to Perth, and led twice during the game but with only a couple of minutes left they lost any chance of coming away with any points from their trip across West. Sydney was pretty impressive last week, I thought that they would win, but they did make me wait for it. At one stage they were 2-0 down, but they played some great football and managed to make a great come back against their across town rivals, Western Sydney, winning 3-2. Brisbane will be desperate to get their first win of the season on the board and this looks the perfect match to do it in. They have the best home record in the league and I expect them to show that this week. They should be odds-on in this match up, and while some bookmakers do have them below evens, Ladbrokes and Unibet have both put up $2.10, I doubt that will be available for long as it looks a great price, so much so that I actually think it is the best value of the round.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 3
Draw 1
Sydney 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.81
Draw $4.12
Sydney $4.90
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.10 Ladbrokes, Sportsbet
Draw $3.50 Bet365
Sydney $3.80 Palmerbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.37
Sydney $3.71
Market Price
Brisbane $1.45 Ladbrokes, Unibet
Sydney $2.75 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.74
Under $2.35
Market Price:
Over $1.81 Unibet
Under $2.00 Everywhere
Value:
Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.10.
Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City
Saturday 25 October, 7:30pm (local) – Etihad Stadium
This is clearly the match of the round. It’s the Melbourne Derby, and the first one since Melbourne City’s re-branding, so it should be massive. I’d suggest if you live in Melbourne try and get down to Etihad, it might be a while till you see another A-League crowd like it. Last week Melbourne Victory had a pretty strong performance in my opinion, they travelled to Adelaide as a decent outsider and they managed to come away with a draw, in a game where they looked to be outplayed for big portions of the match. Khalfallah managed to sneak them a goal in the last minute of regular time to steal them that much needed away point. Melbourne City also took 1 point out of last week, but there’s was much less enviable. They hosted Newcastle and were a long odds-on favourite to record their first win of the year. Not only did they not win the match, they almost lost it completely, luckily for them they recruited some guy named Villa (I hear he goes ok) in the offseason and he made it 2 goals in 2 games for the club. This should be another great Melbourne Derby, and it could go either way, but Melbourne Victory does look to have the advantage. Now there is good news and there is bad news, the bad news is there doesn’t appear to be any value in the Head to Head or Draw No Bet markets, bookies look to have it spot on. The good news is I think there is plenty of value in Over/Under 2.5 Goals. Melbourne Victory has a habit of high scoring games when they play in Victoria and I think this will be no different. All the bookies have the Overs as the favourite for the match, but nowhere near as short as it should be. $1.80 is available and I think the price should be right down at $1.56, in a round where there doesn’t look to be much value, I think I’ll be snapping this up.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Draw 1
Melbourne City 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.41
Draw $3.63
Melbourne City $3.23
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.35 Sportsbet
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet
Melbourne City $3.20 Sportingbet, Centrebet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.75
Melbourne City $2.34
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $1.67 Sportsbet
Melbourne City $2.20 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.56
Under $2.79
Market Price:
Over $1.80 Everywhere
Under $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Value:
Melbourne Victory/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
Wellington Phoenix v Newcastle Jets
Sunday 26 October, 3:00pm (local) – Westpac Stadium
It’s off to New Zealand to see Wellington Phoenix take on the Newcastle Jets. Wellington are coming off a quite shocking result, they went to Bluetongue Stadium, took on Central Coast, and came away with all 3 points, I definitely didn’t see that coming. After a poor performance in week 1, I’m not sure where they pulled that from, but I’d like to see more of it. Newcastle also coming off a nice game, they travelled to Melbourne to take on City, where very few people thought they were much of a chance, and they managed to sneak a draw. They were even leading at one stage, but a late goal from Villa nullified their earlier one, but I’m sure they were more than happy getting 1 point out of the game. This doesn’t look to be a game that is going to draw a lot of interest, and unfortunately I can’t even find any value in the match to try and spice it up with a bet. I think the bookmakers’ prices are basically spot on, and the only slight bit of value is in the Under 2.5 Goals, but even that is so minimal I wouldn’t post it as a selection. I’m sorry, but I suggest you just sit and watch this one without any fiscal investment.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 1
Draw 2
Newcastle 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.21
Draw $3.89
Newcastle $3.44
Market Price:
Wellington $2.05 Sportsbet
Draw $3.50 Unibet
Newcastle $3.40 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.64
Newcastle $2.56
Market Price
Wellington $1.50 Ladbrokes, Bet365
Newcastle $2.60 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $2.07
Under $1.93
Market Price:
Over $1.87 Sportsbet
Under $2.00 Bet365
Value:
None.
Adelaide United v Perth Roar
Sunday 26 October, 5:00pm (local) – Hindmarsh Stadium
On Sunday afternoon we get to see current table leaders Perth Glory get on a plane to go face Adelaide United. Adelaide should be disappointed with the result from last week’s game, they hosted Melbourne Victory and I fully expected them to win. They did play good football for most of the game and managed to break the dead lock with under 10 minutes to play, but then some sloppy defense allowed Victory to quickly get an equaliser and they were back to only taking 1 point out of a game. Perth on the other hand played a great game last week. They hosted Brisbane, but that didn’t scare them, they were down a goal on two separate occasions, that didn’t scare them either. They played strong attacking football and with the help of Keogh, a name I think you’ll be hearing a lot of this season, they managed to peg them back each time and then took the lead very late in the match. Who would of thought this, but Perth is indeed at the top of the A-League ladder, and the only team to be undefeated after two rounds. While this is the shortest road trip they have to make, it doesn’t change the fact that they are not great once they leave Western Australia. They lost more away games than any other team last season, and Adelaide only lost 2 games that they hosted. Not only should Adelaide be odds-on for this match, they should be deep into odds-on. I have them rated at $1.73, and a couple of bookies out there are offering even money, that’s a great price, I can’t see how that can possibly last. Doesn’t look any value though in the Draw No Beat market so will just have to take them straight out.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 2
Draw 3
Perth 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.73
Draw $4.36
Perth $5.24
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.00 Sportingbet, Centrebet
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet, Bet365
Perth $4.10 Palmerbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.33
Perth $4.03
Market Price
Adelaide $1.44 Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, Centrebet
Perth $3.00 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.74
Under $2.35
Market Price:
Over $1.91 Sportingbet, Centrebet
Under $1.95 Bet365
Value:
Adelaide United – Head to Head – $2.00.
Prices correct at time of writing.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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