So we were brought well and truly back to earth last week after a great round 1, nothing went right for us at all in round 2 and it was a strip out. 4 draws made it quite a tough week to stay profitable in the A League, but we’ll try to fight back this week to get back on the right side of the ledger again. That disallowed goal of Melbourne Victory’s that was ruled offside when it was clearly onside summed up our luck last week, surely the punting gods will be back on our side this week.
The best performances of last week would have to go to Brisbane after their extremely impressive 4-0 thumping of an average looking Sydney, along with Wellington, who amazingly managed to come back from Western Sydney with a point, a result which no one seen coming. There does look to be less of a gap between the top teams and the bottom teams this season, but we’ll have to wait to see if it does pan out that way.
Best Value: Newcastle at $4.30 with Luxbet
Second Best Value: Western Sydney at $1.85 with Sportingbet/TAB
Melbourne Victory v Brisbane
Friday 25 October 7:30pm (local) – Etihad Stadium
Melbourne Victory are lining up in another Friday night match this week, this time back at home, in what looks to be the match of the round. Melbourne Victory has probably been playing below what many expected, and are yet to record a win. Brisbane is the opposite, playing better than most thought they would, including their dominate performance over Sydney last weekend. While it should be a good match, you’d think Melbourne Victory should be able to chalk up their first win of the year, and although they haven’t beaten Brisbane in their last 5 encounters, the last 2 were draws which is more encouraging for them. The home field advantage is the swinging point for this match I think.
Last 5 games
Melbourne Victory 0
Draw 2
Brisbane 3
Rated Prices
Melbourne Victory $2.12
Draw $3.91
Brisbane $3.67
Market
Melbourne Victory $2.90 Betstar
Draw $3.40 TAB/ Betstar/Sportingbet
Brisbane $2.55 TAB
Best Value: Melbourne Victory at $2.90 with Betstar
Central Coast v Adelaide
Saturday 26 October 5:30pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium
Who would of thought Central Coast would only have 2 points after 2 matches, but this is their chance to get that first win for the season, if they don’t win this match serious questions will be asked if this is the same team as last season. While Adelaide have been more than satisfactory, going to Bluetongue Stadium is by far the hardest road trip a team has to do during the season, with Central Coast winning a staggering 80% of home games. The other notable stat is that Adelaide hasn’t managed a single point in games against Central Coast since August 2010, losing their last 8 meetings. Central Coast “should” win this game easily, but there have been some unusual results so far this season, either way $1.80 has to be overs.
Last 5 games
Central Coast 5
Draw 0
Adelaide 0
Rated Prices
Central Coast $1.49
Draw $4.85
Adelaide $8.28
Market
Central Coast $1.80 Sportsbet/Sportingbet
Draw $3.60 Betstar
Adelaide $4.70 Betstar
Best Value: Central Coast at $1.80 with Sportsbet/Sportingbet
Sydney v Western Sydney
Saturday 26 October 7:45pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
Both team are coming off very disappointing games last week and will be desperate to redeem themselves this week. Sydney’s 4-0 loss to Brisbane looks to be the poorest performance of the season, Brisbane are a good side, but once Sydney conceded that first goal, they never looked a chance of coming back. Western Sydney on the other hand looked to have their game wrapped up pretty early but couldn’t convert more than 1 of their multitude of chances in the first half, then in the second half they were a little lackluster. I’m sure they won’t let that happen again. I have Western Sydney rated the shortest price favourite of the weekend and they really should get the job done, the $1.85 around looks juicy.
Last 3 games
Sydney 1
Draw 1
Western Sydney 1
Rated Prices
Sydney $8.25
Draw $5.03
Western Sydney $1.47
Market
Sydney $4.50 Tatts/Betstar
Draw $3.50 Nearly everywhere
Western Sydney $1.85 Sportingbet/TAB
Best Value: Western Sydney at $1.85 with Sportingbet/TAB
Wellington v Newcastle
Sunday 27 October 5:00pm (local) – Mclean Park
After a few exciting games to start the round we come to this slightly underwhelming game, which might be looked back on as the battle for the wooden spoon (sorry to all the Wellington and Newcastle fans out there). But in saying that, it should be a fairly close game between these two teams, so I’m quite surprised that Wellington has come up odds-on in this fixture. In fairness I may be short changing Wellington a little bit, after all they did travel to Western Sydney and came home with a point. I’ve got Newcastle marked as slight favourites for this match, mainly due to Wellington having the worst home record of any team in the league. This match could go either way, but with the market heavily in favour of Wellington, it makes the $4.30 available for Newcastle just too good to resist, looks a massive price.
Last 5 games
Wellington 3
Draw 1
Newcastle 1
Rated Prices
Wellington $3.03
Draw $3.81
Newcastle $2.45
Market
Wellington $1.95 Sportsbet/TAB
Draw $3.60 Luxbet
Newcastle $4.30 Luxbet
Best Value: Newcastle at $4.30 with Luxbet
Perth v Melbourne Heart
Sunday 27 October 2:00pm (local) – NIB Stadium
We round the week out with Melbourne Heart travelling across to Perth. This looks an important match for these two clubs as they are likely going to be fighting for that last finals position at the end of the season, so even though it’s early days, both teams will know the importance of this match. It’s important to note Melbourne Hearts extremely average away record, coming away with only 5 points from the last 45 available on the road. Unfortunately the market looks to be all over this match, there’s a tiny bit of value for the Draw and for Melbourne Heart, but not enough to entice me into laying down my hard earned on it. Perth is only .07c under their rated price, so if you are keen on them, don’t let me discourage you, they are worthy favourites.
Last 5 games
Perth 3
Draw 0
Melbourne Heart 2
Rated Prices
Perth $2.27
Draw $3.87
Melbourne Heart $3.32
Market
Perth $2.20 Sportingbet
Draw $3.40 Ladbrokes/TAB/Sportsbet
Melbourne Heart $3.70 Betstar
Best Value: Nothing
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
