Unfortunately Round 26 didn’t go to plan, with only 1 of the 4 selections getting up, luckily it was Perth at $3.00 so it was only a small loss for the week. The 3 games that we lost on, all draws, 2 of which the opposing side scored a penalty just to rub salt into the wound, it could of so easily gone the other way for us.
On Friday night Adelaide only managed to come away with 1 point when hosting Melbourne Heart, which just isn’t good enough when they are fighting for a home finals position. They gave away 2 penalties, thankfully for them Williams only managed to convert 1 of them so they got something out of the game.
Both the Newcastle/Melbourne Victory and Western Sydney/Brisbane games went as expected, both close games that could of gone either way. Unfortunately for us they both ended on a draw so they were a stripout. Newcastle gave away a late penalty that Milligan slotted effortlessly to start Saturday off in a way that we weren’t hoping for.
Saturday finished in a better way than it started with Perth easily getting the better of Central Coast at the nice price of $3.00. It was just as well after the average start to the round, it got us most of our money back.
Sydney toweled up Wellington on Sunday, 4-1, they were rated a pretty short price so a result like this was to be expected.
This Friday night kicks off the start of the final round of the season before we head into finals. There is a few positions locked in so far, Brisbane will finish on top of the ladder, Western Sydney, Central Coast, Adelaide and Melbourne Victory will make the finals and Perth, Wellington and Melbourne Heart will not. While Sydney should make the finals, if the results happen to go Newcastle’s way they could actually leapfrog them and make the finals themselves.
While the Friday night game isn’t the best betting proposition, the rest of the weekend there looks to be some good value around and hopefully the result (and penalties) fall our way this round.
Best of luck with any bets you have.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value: Wellington at $3.10 with Tatts/Sportingbet.
Second Best Value: Melbourne Heart at $3.30 with Tatts.
Newcastle v Adelaide
Friday 11 April 7:30pm (local) – Hunter Stadium
Round 27 starts at Hunter Stadium on Friday night as Newcastle host Adelaide. Newcastle need a win to have a chance of playing finals, even then it’s a slim chance with them needing Sydney to lose and to get a 4 goal goal-difference turned around. Adelaide on the other hand will play finals, and if they can get all 3 points out of this game then they will have a huge chance of landing a home final, and they can be deadly at home. Unfortunately for Newcastle they are on the road here and that’s where they have really struggled, only winning 3 away games this year. Newcastle has been in pretty good form over the last month or so and I think they will take quite a bit to knock off here. The market has the match lined up pretty similar to me, Newcastle looked to be a little bit of overs, but not enough to have a play at them. If they did drift to $2.45 then I could definitely back them. Over/under punters will be happy to know there is a bit of an edge to the unders, with 7 out of the last 8 times these teams have met going unders, imagine another low scoring game is on the cards.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 1
Draw 2
Adelaide 2
Rated Prices:
Newcastle $2.23
Draw $3.84
Adelaide $3.44
Market:
Newcastle $2.35 Sportingbet
Draw $3.50 Most Bookmakers
Adelaide $3.20 Betstar
Best Value: Nothing.
Wellington v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 12 April 3:30pm (local) – Westpac Stadium
Melbourne Victory fly to New Zealand to face Wellington in the hopes of securing themselves a home final. Wellington’s season is over after this match, but they’ll be hoping to stay off the bottom of the ladder so imagine they’ll show something. While not as likely as Adelaide on Friday night, a win for Melbourne Victory will take them a long way to getting that elusive home final, they do need a couple of other results to go their way though. Unfortunately for them I actually see this match going in Wellington’s favour, they have nothing to lose while Melbourne Victory are notoriously bad travellers and will probably struggle across the ditch. They do have a good head to head record though winning 4 out of their last 5 matchups. I’m quite shocked the market has the visitors at such a short price, I actually thought the prices should basically be flipped. I had Wellington at $2.14, and with $3.10 around, I think they are the best value of the round. It looks likely to be a goalfest too with 7 out of the last 8 games having 3+ goals scored, and the last 3 games having a massive 15 goals hitting the back of the net if you like to back the overs in A League matches too.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 1
Draw 0
Melbourne Victory 4
Rated Prices:
Wellington $2.14
Draw $3.70
Melbourne Victory $3.81
Market:
Wellington $3.10 Tatts, Sportingbet
Draw $3.60 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $2.30 Most Bookmakers
Best Value: Wellington at $3.10 with Tatts/Sportingbet.
Melbourne Heart v Western Sydney
Saturday 12 April 5:30pm (local) – AAMI Park
Western Sydney looked to have a final in Parramatta locked up but they can’t be too careful. If things don’t go their way across the round they can quickly drop back down to having to travel in the first week of the finals. They have to head down to AAMI Park on Saturday afternoon to face the bottom of the table Melbourne Heart. The home team can’t make finals, but I’m sure they’ll like to end the season on a high with a win in front of all of their fans. Melbourne Heart were showing a lot after Christmas, but the last month or so they have dropped back off and this is a season they’ll be glad to be over and done with. I actually think this will be a very close match, I have the 2 sides within $0.50 of each and give the slight edge to the home side. The market has Western Sydney as a pretty solid favourite, I’m pretty sure that shouldn’t be the case. The way the market is I think Melbourne Heart have to be a great play, the $3.30 that Tatts have has to be overs, so much so I think they are the second best value of the round.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Heart 0
Draw 1
Western Sydney 4
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Heart $2.50
Draw $3.79
Western Sydney $2.97
Market:
Melbourne Heart $3.30 Tatts
Draw $3.50 Most Bookmakers
Western Sydney $2.20 Betstar, Sportsbet, Sportingbet
Best Value: Melbourne Heart at $3.30 with Tatts.
Brisbane v Central Coast
Saturday 12 April 7:45pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
Saturday evening we see the match of the round for mine. Central Coast head up to Brisbane to try and get some kind of result to make sure they hang onto their position in the top 3. Brisbane have had their final at Suncorp Stadium locked away for a while now and have continued to dominate. Unfortunately for Central Coast, Brisbane have been beasts at home this season and they win over 75% of those games. The last 2 times I’ve had Brisbane as a selection they have done the right thing by me and I think they’ll do the same thing again this week. While they are sitting in third now, I think Central Coast are in real trouble of dropping out of the top 3 if they don’t get a win here, their goal difference is average so they need to try and get at least a point out of this. I can’t help but think the $1.90 TAB have for Brisbane is pretty good value, the only danger is if they take it easy with nothing to play for.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Draw 1
Central Coast 2
Rated Prices:
Brisbane $1.73
Draw $4.18
Central Coast $5.45
Market:
Brisbane $1.90 TAB
Draw $3.75 Sportsbet
Central Coast $4.50 Betstar
Best Value: Brisbane at $1.90 with TAB.
Sydney v Perth
Sunday 13 April 5:00pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
The last game of the regular season is on Sunday as Sydney host Perth. Another game where one teams season is over (Perth) and the other is trying to increase their finals position (Sydney). A win or a draw guarantees Sydney a spot in the finals, while if they lose there is a small chance of actually dropping out of the finals all together. While if they win they also have a small chance of slipping into the top 3 and landing a final at Allianz Stadium. I think a home ground advantage is more important to Sydney than any other team, they really struggle when they go on the road but somehow it’s like a different team all together when they turn up at Allianz. Due to that reason they come into this game against Perth, who have only won 1 game on the road this year, as the shortest price favourite of the round. And I think the $1.70 you can get for them is actually a decent bit of value. I have them all the way down at $1.56 and think they will be extremely hard to hold out. There shouldn’t be any lack of goals either with 5 out of the last 6 games between these 2 having 3+ goals scored, so if you like the overs/unders market, overs looks a good option as well.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Draw 1
Perth 2
Rated Prices:
Sydney $1.56
Draw $4.83
Perth $6.63
Market:
Sydney $1.70 TAB, Sportingbet
Draw $3.80 Most Bookmakers
Perth $5.00 Betstar, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes
Best Value: Sydney at $1.70 with TAB/Sportingbet.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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