Welcome to The Profits A-League Round 24 2017 Preview as the season kicks off on Friday night at the Spotless Stadium and The Profits A-League expert previews all the matches and shares his best bets.
Best Value
Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $1.95
Always tough having Central Coast as your best bet of the round, but I think $1.95 is a huge price with money back for the draw. I cannot see Adelaide possibly getting the win here; it’s either a Central Coast win, or a draw in my eyes, so keen to take the gamble at the touch of odds-on.
Next Best Value
Wellington – Head to Head – $2.60
Wellington back at home should be too strong for Newcastle who is a notably average road team. I rated Wellington $2.12, so am more than happy with the $2.60 that’s available, although I don’t know how long that will last.
Best Value:
1st: Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $1.95
2nd: Wellington – Head to Head – $2.60
3rd: Wellington/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67
4th: Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $2.20
Western Sydney Wanderers v Melbourne City
Friday 24 march, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium
First game of Round 24 looks a cracker, Melbourne City head north to take on Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium. Western Sydney were at home last weekend to Wellington and they made sure the three points were never in doubt. Martinez banged in a goal for them in the first ten minutes, and it was obvious what the end result would be. Western Sydney was 3-0 when Finkler scored Wellington’s first, and only goal for the game. Melbourne City hosted Newcastle on Saturday and went into the fixture as a short priced favourite. They lived up to their pre-match odds by dominating Newcastle from the first touch. The final score was 4-0, and while it’s very unlikely Melbourne City can catch Melbourne Victory in the second spot on the ladder, they’re giving it a decent crack. A very tight game and one I found hard to split the two sides, but giving the slight edge to Melbourne City, just. Bookies look to know what they’re doing in this one, sit out match for me.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 1
Melbourne City 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.97
Melbourne City $2.55
Draw $3.68
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.50 Everywhere
Melbourne City $2.60 Everywhere
Draw $3.75 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.17
Melbourne City $1.86
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.87 Unibet
Melbourne City $1.93 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.74
Over $1.58
Market Price:
Under $2.28 Unibet
Over $1.64 Unibet
Value: No value
Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide United
Saturday 25 March, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
The semi-revived Central Coast is looking to get back to winning form when they play Adelaide on Saturday afternoon. Central Coast had a commendable performance against Sydney last week. Firstly, they did lose 1-0, so in the end it was for no avail, but they did play very well. They dominated possession, but just couldn’t get the same sort of shots away that Sydney could. They’re now three games adrift from a finals spot, so it will be tough for them to make up that ground, but all they can do is try. Adelaide got another win on the board last Sunday when they played Brisbane. They went into the match as the underdog, but they were at home, so they weren’t given no chance. Either way a win against Brisbane is very good for a team in their position. Cirio scored the winner for them very deep into injury time, which some might say was a bit lucky, but they’ll take it. Central Coast should be able to get back to winning form this week. While they haven’t scored the three points in their latest few matches, their game has been good, and that form should be enough to win this. Pretty happy with the price about Central Coast too, getting $1.95 with money back for the draw seems very enticing (I can’t see Adelaide winning this).
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 2
Adelaide 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.12
Adelaide $3.79
Draw $3.77
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.63 Bet365
Adelaide $2.50 TopBetta
Draw $3.75 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.56
Adelaide $2.78
Market Price:
Central Coast $1.95 Sportsbet, Unibet
Adelaide $1.85 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.35
Over $1.74
Market Price:
Under $2.48 Unibet
Over $1.54 Unibet
Value: Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $1.95
Central Coast – Head to Head – $2.63
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 25 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
This looks the highlight of the round for sure, Brisbane and Melbourne Victory going head to head on Saturday night. Melbourne Victory hosted Perth in their Round 23 match a couple of weeks ago, and as you’d expect it was all one-way traffic. Even though Perth opened the scoring, all of Melbourne Victory’s stars chimed in soon after with goals of their own. By the final whistle the score was 4-1, and Melbourne Victory cemented themselves as a top two team this season. Brisbane was slightly disappointing last week. While they were on the road, it was just to Adelaide, whose season is already over, whereas Brisbane should be fighting for every point they can. I thought Brisbane would win, but as the ninety minutes ticked over it was still 1-1. Instead of them finding the late breakthrough though, it was Adelaide, leaving Brisbane empty handed for the trip home. To be honest, I really couldn’t split these teams at all, and rated them exactly the same, it really could go either way. I think Melbourne Victory in the Draw No Bet market at $2.20 is a tiny bit of value, if they shorten at all, it’s probably another “watch” match, but at $2.20 I think they’re worth a spin.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Melbourne Victory 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $2.80
Melbourne Victory $2.80
Draw $3.49
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.30 TopBetta
Melbourne Victory $3.00 Bet365
Draw $3.70 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $2.00
Melbourne Victory $2.00
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.68 Unibet
Melbourne Victory $2.20 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.58
Over $1.63
Market Price:
Under $2.23 Unibet
Over $1.67 Bet365
Value: Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $2.20
Wellington Phoenix v Newcastle Jets
Sunday 26 March, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
The first of two games on Sunday is between Wellington and Newcastle at Westpac Stadium. Wellington had to travel to Spotless Stadium last Sunday to face Western Sydney, and one thing Wellington isn’t, is a good away side. They went into the match as a big underdog, and lived up to that expectation. They scored a late consolidation goal when the game was all but over, but that doesn’t count for much. The final score line was 3-1, and that’s pretty indicative of how the match played out. Newcastle had an even harder task when they travelled down to face Melbourne City. It was a very tough day at the office for the Newcastle players as Melbourne City dominated most of the match. They ended up losing 4-0, and prior to the game it looked like a type of match that could have had a score line like that. This isn’t an easy match, but I think back at home Wellington have a good chance to get another win under their belt as they try to sneak into that last finals spot. Wellington is a solid price in my opinion, and could be backed in either the Head to Head or Draw No Bet markets. Over 2.5 goals looks very likely too, and backable at $1.67.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 1
Newcastle 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.12
Newcastle $3.72
Draw $3.84
Market Price:
Wellington $2.60 Bet365
Newcastle $2.60 Sportsbet, Unibet
Draw $3.60 Bet365, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.57
Newcastle $2.75
Market Price:
Wellington $1.91 Bet365
Newcastle $1.93 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.62
Over $1.38
Market Price:
Under $2.25 Unibet
Over $1.67 Bet365
Value: Wellington – Head to Head – $2.60
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.91
Wellington/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67
Perth Glory v Sydney FC
Sunday 26 March, 7:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
Final game of the round see’s one of the best “home” sides in the league hosting The best side in the league, it’s Perth and Sydney. Perth is coming off an embarrassing loss two weekends ago when they travelled to Victoria to take on Melbourne Victory. Now obviously Melbourne Victory is a very good side, but if Perth thinks of themselves as contenders, then they shouldn’t be losing 4-1. They are a very different side on the road to at home, but they were never in the hunt at all for the ninety minutes. Sydney hosted Central Coast last round and got the job done as they have so many times this season. They didn’t have a whole lot of the ball, but what they did with it was good, giving themselves plenty of opportunities. They only managed to find the back of the net once, but that’s all they needed to get another win, and all but secure the Premiership. Unfortunately we’re finishing the round on another no bet game, I thought going into the match that Perth would be overs, but bookies rate them the same as I do.
Last 5 games:
Perth 1
Sydney 4
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $3.49
Sydney $2.19
Draw $3.89
Market Price:
Perth $3.35 Unibet
Sydney $2.10 TopBetta
Draw $3.80 Bet365, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $2.59
Sydney $1.63
Market Price:
Perth $2.55 Unibet
Sydney $1.57 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.31
Over $1.43
Market Price:
Under $2.55 Unibet
Over $1.51 Unibet
Value: No value
