Coming off another winning week in A League, the last month has been great, winning the past 4 weekends, just hoping we can continue it for the rest of the season and through the finals.
The weekend didn’t start well with Melbourne Victory getting the better of Central Coast winning 3-1. It was to be expected, I still had Melbourne Victory as clear favourite, just thought Central Coast were value at the price, no harm done there. On the plus side “overs” was suggested and that landed easily with 4 goals hitting the back of the net.
Then we had Newcastle take care of Melbourne Heart 1-0. Most bookies had Newcastle as a slight favourite, but I had them clearly ahead. So that was a nice easy selection landing at what I thought was an extremely lucrative $2.60, had them as the best value of the round, and they didn’t let me down.
The highlight of the round, at least for me, was Sydney winning the local Derby 3-1 and in turn, getting up for me at $3.25, making it 3 weeks in a row that I’ve suggested an underdog that has got the chocolates. They got the job done with relative ease as well, winning 3-1, granted one of those goals was a late injury time penalty but that doesn’t worry me.
There was no suggested plays in the Sunday games, but Brisbane won as expected being a short odds-on favourite but Wellington only managed 1 point when they hosted Perth, that could make it rather hard for them to play finals now.
Very excited to get into Round 23 after the good run of form. I think there is value in 4 out of the 5 games this weekend, think the only game to leave alone is the Melbourne Heart and Wellington game on Sunday.
Good luck with any hard earned that you wager this weekend, be it on A League or anything else for that matter.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value: Perth at $2.75 with Sportingbet/Sportsbet.
Second Best Value: Sydney at $3.40 with Tatts/Betstar.
Sydney v Brisbane
Friday 14 March 7:30pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
We have a cracking game on Friday, Sydney, who have won 3 out of their last 4 games host Brisbane, who I think I can safely say won the premiership after they managed to pull a further 3 points away from Western Sydney at the top of the ladder last weekend. Sydney’s 3-1 victory of Western Sydney was very good, after going down early, they then saved a penalty and then managed to bag themselves 3 goals in the second half to get a relatively easy 3 points in a game they went into as underdogs (or at the least the bookies thought that, I had them as favourites). Brisbane went into their game against Adelaide as short odds-on favourites and they did what they needed to to lock away the premiership that they desired. They will now be focusing on their finals campaign and might be a little relaxed for the remainder of the season. Another little stat that I think a lot of people are missing is that Sydney have the equal best home record of any team in the A League this season, Allianz has become a fortress for any team to visit and try and get a result from. I have Sydney as a slight favourite, but the market has Brisbane as a short priced favourite, somehow. The prices are completely wrong in my opinion and I’m once again very keen on Sydney. I have them as the second best value of the round, I highly doubt $3.40 will be around at kickoff time on Friday. Also for over/unders players, 6 out of the last 7 times these teams have faced off there’s been 3+ goals scored, including a massive 7 goals the last time they met.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 1
Draw 0
Brisbane 4
Rated Prices:
Sydney $2.57
Draw $3.67
Brisbane $2.96
Market:
Sydney $3.40 Tatts, Betstar
Draw $3.60 Sportsbet
Brisbane $2.20 Sportingbet
Best Value: Sydney at $3.40 with Tatts/Betstar.
Western Sydney v Adelaide
Saturday 15 March 5:30pm (local) – Pirtek Stadium
We have an action packed Saturday, 3 games back to back to back. We kickoff the triple header with Western Sydney hosting Adelaide. Western Sydney have surprisingly only won 1 of their past 5 games, and the home final that looked theirs for the keeping a month ago is now back up for grabs, and they’re only 5 points above Newcastle who at this stage isn’t playing finals. Adelaide who lost last week when travelling to Brisbane (as expected) are one of the teams biting at Western Sydney’s heels, trying to secure themselves a home final. They have been in good form lately, but have been saving their best efforts for when they play at home, having still only won 2 away games this season. On the flip side, Western Sydney has only lost 2 games at Pirtek Stadium this season. I’m struggling to understand how bookmakers have the home team at black figures, I have no doubt they should be odds-on, and I think a fair way into the red. I have them right down at $1.71, I have 4 teams rated odds-on this week but they are the shortest of the lot. $2.20 seems massive overs, how the best price available for Adelaide is $3.40 I’ll never know. At the price Western Sydney are massive overs and they would usually be in my top two value plays of the week, but they just missed out with some great value in the other games this round as well.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 3
Draw 0
Adelaide 2
Rated Prices:
Western Sydney $1.71
Draw $4.21
Adelaide $5.59
Market:
Western Sydney $2.20 Sportingbet, Sportsbet
Draw $3.50 Sportingbet, TAB
Adelaide $3.40 Betstar, Tatts
Best Value: Western Sydney at $2.20 with Sportingbet/Sportsbet.
Central Coast v Newcastle
Saturday 15 March 7:45pm (local) – Central Coast Stadium
It’s f3 Derby time again (I also think this is a terrible name but anyway) with Central Coast hosting Newcastle. These games are getting very important with these middle of the table teams. Central Coast is currently sitting sixth on the ladder and Newcastle is seventh, these games will decide which teams play finals and which don’t. Central Coast has been struggling of late and I think that’s why bookmakers have them at such a big price, a month ago they would of come up a lot shorter. Newcastle have been good, winning 3 of their last 4 games but they are relying on Taggart too much I feel. The last game they won that Taggart didn’t score a goal in was before Christmas, if he has an off game, which he has on occasions, their offense really struggles to score. I was quiet surprised at how short I have Central Coast priced, but that good home record of theirs definitely shortens them. Similar to Western Sydney, they look to be very good value and while not in the top couple of plays this week, the $2.40 on offer can’t be ignored. They have cost me a little bit of late, but I’m keeping strong and think they’ll definitely play finals this year.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 2
Draw 2
Newcastle 1
Rated Prices:
Central Coast $1.82
Draw $4.17
Newcastle $4.75
Market:
Central Coast $2.40 Sportingbet
Draw $3.50 TAB
Newcastle $3.20 Sportsbet
Best Value: Central Coast at $2.40 with Sportingbet.
Perth v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 15 March 6:30pm (local) – NIB Stadium
Melbourne Victory face the dreaded Perth trip this week, along with playing their ACL game on Wednesday, saying that they will be a little tired is probably putting it kindly. Both teams had good performances last week, Melbourne Victory beating Central Coast at home while Perth travelled to New Zealand and came away with 1 point, not a very easy task. Melbourne Victory can taste a home final as they are holding onto third position by less than a game. Perth on the other hand can basically kiss the 2013/14 season goodbye, after Melbourne Heart’s good run of form, they have now slipped to the bottom of the ladder and don’t look very likely to move from that spot. That being said, Perth is still a very hard place to travel and win, only 2 teams have done it this season and I don’t know if Melbourne Victory will be able to after their midweek game. I was utterly shocked when I seen that the market either had Melbourne Victory as favourites, or at best both teams as equal favs. I have Perth as basically even money favourites. Sportingbet and Sportsbet are offering $2.75, and this is massive in my opinion and looks the best value of the round. They should be clearly shorter than Melbourne Victory and I think after the ACL game Perth will shorten. Get the $2.75 while you can, they surely have to start favourite.
Last 5 games:
Perth 1
Draw 1
Melbourne Victory 3
Rated Prices:
Perth $1.98
Draw $3.97
Melbourne Victory $4.10
Market:
Perth $2.75 Sportingbet, Sportsbet
Draw $3.55 TAB
Melbourne Victory $2.63
Best Value: Perth at $2.75 with Sportingbet/Sportsbet.
Melbourne Heart v Wellington
Sunday 16 March 4:00pm (local) – AAMI Park
Bit of a nothing end to the week on the punting front with this game on Sunday, should be interesting none the less, but it won’t have an effect on my bank balance. Melbourne Heart are playing host to Wellington as both of these teams are desperately trying to pull themselves up into that last finals position. While Wellington have got the better of Melbourne Heart lately winning 3 out of their last 5 encounters, I’m sure both teams will remember their last meeting when Melbourne Heart travelled to New Zealand and unleashed a 5-0 whooping. The game’s back in Australia this time and I don’t think the home side will have any trouble taking care of Wellington again, 5-0 might be a stretch but they should still do it easily enough. Unfortunately the market has them rated even shorter than the $1.88 I have them at. What makes it even worse is there is no value in Wellington or the Draw either, so this Sunday I’m just going to have to sit on the couch and watch the game without a financial interest. Hopefully the 4 games earlier in the round will have already filled the wallets (or betting accounts) that we don’t mind.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Heart 1
Draw 1
Wellington 3
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Heart $1.88
Draw $4.03
Wellington $4.53
Market:
Melbourne Heart $1.80 Most Bookmakers
Draw $3.70 Sportsbet
Wellington $4.50 Sportingbet, Betstar
Best Value: Nothing.
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