Round 21 was probably the best we’ve had all season, not only has it made it 3 winning weeks in a row, but also Newcastle landing at a massive $7.50! Of the 3 selections last week 2 managed to get the chocolates for us, along with Newcastle, our best value of the round, Central Coast, also got the result we were after.
Adelaide won their game as most expected, although I didn’t think they’d win by 4 goals, it was quite an offensive performance. Wellington’s defense hasn’t been that bad all season, it will be interesting how they bounce back this week.
Brisbane were well into odds-on and they played to match their price, easily beating Perth when at home, I would have been shocked if they didn’t take care of them though.
The Melbourne Derby was a bit of a white wash, with Melbourne pulling out an easy 4-0 win, the result never really looked in doubt after they went up early and then Melbourne Victory going a man down when still in the first half.
Off to Round 22 as we try and make it a fourth consecutive winning week. There’s 3 games that interest me this round and we get them all on Friday and Saturday, with Sunday’s games looking a little harder with not much value to be had.
Best Value: Newcastle at $2.60 with Ladbrokes.
Second Best Value: Central Coast at $3.60 with Betstar.
Melbourne Victory v Central Coast
Friday 7 March 7:30pm (local) – AAMI Park
We kick Round 22 off with Melbourne Victory hosting Central Coast at AAMI Park. Both teams are on the exact same amount of points, with the same win/draw/loss ratio too. Everything is pointing to this being a pretty close game. Unfortunately For Melbourne Victory they are in a little bit of a form slump and last weeks 4-0 loss to across town rivals Melbourne Heart emphasised it to the max. Central Coast are coming off a 2-1 win over Sydney, which was to be expected, but at least the got the job done when they had to. One major downside to Central Coast is their away form, they have only won 2 games away from Bluetongue Stadium this year, far from enviable. I was shocked when I looked at the market and seen the longest price avaiable for Melbourne Victory was $2.07, with some bookmakers even having them odds-on. I thought they should be favourite, but nowhere near that short, closer to the $2.40 range. In turn, Central Coast look to be pretty good value with the $3.60 on offer at Betstar. In what should be a pretty close game, I’m more than happy to take Central Coast at the price.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 1
Draw 2
Central Coast 2
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Victory $2.40
Draw $3.72
Central Coast $3.18
Market:
Melbourne Victory $2.07 Sportingbet
Draw $3.50 Most Bookmakers
Central Coast $3.60 Betstar
Best Value: Central Coast at $3.60 with Betstar.
Newcastle v Melbourne Heart
Saturday 8 March 5:30pm (local) – Hunter Stadium
Who would of thought this could have been one of the games of the round a month ago. Both these teams are coming off cracking wins, Melbourne Heart whooping Melbourne Victory in the Derby 4-0 and Newcastle heading to Western Sydney and taking them down 2-0. With both teams in good form this should be a good, and I’d imagine, high scoring game. While Melbourne Heart have been very good lately, they are still struggling when away from home, they’ve only managed 2 wins in the last 2 seasons on the road, clearly the worst in the league. This being the fact, I’m actually very keen on Newcastle this week, maybe I’m a little soft on them after they got up last week at $7.50 for me, but I think the $2.60 Ladbrokes have put up is the best value of the round, I have them rated about an even money chance. As I mentioned earlier, this looks to be a game that will have quite a few goals, I’ve noticed that 7 out of the last 8 times these teams have faced off in the overs has landed, this is enough for me to think it’s definitely worth a side bet. I think this is the best game of the round to have a bet in.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 2
Draw 1
Melbourne Heart 2
Rated Prices:
Newcastle $2.01
Draw $3.83
Melbourne Heart $4.13
Market:
Newcastle $2.60 Ladbrokes
Draw $3.40 Sportingbet
Melbourne Heart $2.75 Betstar
Best Value: Newcastle at $2.60 with Ladbrokes.
Sydney v Western Sydney
Saturday 8 March 7:45pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
It’s the big Sydney Derby time again as the Sky Blues host the newest team in the league, Western Sydney. Since they joined the league, Western Sydney has got the better of Sydney in these big Derby’s, winning 3 out of the 5 matches they’ve played. On the plus side for the home team, Sydney have one of the best home records in the league and playing this game at Allianz Stadium is a massive plus for them and brings them right back into this match. When I did my pricing I had this match pretty tight, and actually had Sydney as slight favourites at $2.50, but the market actually has the prices swung the other way with Western Sydney down at $2.35. Basically this just means that Sydney appear to be very good value to me and I doubt the $3.25 will last. Also for any over/under players, all 5 matches that these teams have played have had 2 or less goals scored, not 1 has gone overs, so the unders could be another good betting option.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 1
Draw 1
Western Sydney 3
Rated Prices:
Sydney $2.50
Draw $3.78
Western Sydney $2.98
Market:
Sydney $3.25 Betstar
Draw $2.50 Sportingbet
Western Sydney $2.35 Sportingbet
Best Value: Sydney at $3.25 with Betstar.
Brisbane v Adelaide
Sunday 9 March 4:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
League leaders Brisbane host Adelaide in this match on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are coming off very good offensive games, with Brisbane beating Perth 3-1 and Adelaide taking care of Wellington 5-1 last week. They were both expected to win the respective games and they did just that, and as you can see by the score lines, it was with relative ease. The game gets a lot harder for Adelaide this week though, heading to Queensland to face off with the best team in the competition. Brisbane has almost certainly secured themselves the premiership for the season and will now be starting to focus their energy on the finals which is creeping up very quickly. Adelaide on the other hand have managed to pull themselves up to fourth position on the ladder, and while they are only 1 game away from a top 3 position, they are also only 4 points away from dropping out of the finals. I don’t think Brisbane should have any trouble taking care of the visitors this week, they’ve been dominate at Suncorp Stadium all season, taking all 3 points out of 70% of their games there, a great record. I have the home team marked down at $1.66, the shortest price team of the round, and while there is a little bit of value around with $1.72 on offer, it’s not enough for me to dive in. I’d need around $1.85 before I’d touch them, other than that I’d have to stay out of the match and just watch. A crazy little stat out of this fixture is that the last 6 times these teams have met, it’s always been the away team to take all 3 points away from the match, maybe that gives Adelaide the sniff they need.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 4
Draw 0
Adelaide 1
Rated Prices:
Brisbane $1.66
Draw $4.34
Adelaide $6.00
Market:
Brisbane $1.72 Tatts, Sportingbet
Draw $3.85 TAB
Adelaide $5.00 Betstar
Best Value: Nothing.
Wellington v Perth
Sunday 9 March 5:00pm (local) – Westpac Stadium
Perth has to do the biggest road trip in A League this weekend, as they fly all the way to New Zealand to face Wellington. As I mentioned in the Brisbane/Adelaide review, these 2 teams were on the receiving ends of some pretty decent beatings last week. Both teams are not performing at their best towards the latter part of the season and while a finals birth is all but gone for Perth, Wellington still have a chance to play, but it is looking more and more unlikely. The home side can’t afford to drop another point when at home this season and also need to sneak a few points on the road. This being the case this should be a pretty one-sided match, Wellington will be fighting with everything they got, and I can’t imagine Perth putting in all that much effort. The recent split between these 2 teams has been very even, each team winning 2 games and the other a draw out of their last 5 encounters but I think it will be a different story on Sunday. I have Wellington marked right down at $1.71, and crazily enough the best price around is exactly $1.71 too. While it’s not good odds, it’s not bad either, I couldn’t advise you to back them at that price, but if they got out to $1.90 I would definitely be interested. If we don’t get that then it will be another sit and watch game on a Sunday afternoon.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 2
Draw 2
Perth 1
Rated Prices:
Wellington $1.71
Draw $4.26
Perth $5.59
Market:
Wellington $1.71 Sportingbet
Draw $3.80 Betstar
Perth $5.00 Most Bookmakers
Best Value: Nothing.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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