Welcome to The Profits Round 21 of the 2017 A-league! This week kicks off on Friday night and The Profits A-League expert previews all the matches and shares his best bets
Best Value
Perth – Head to Head – $2.30
In a week where bets are few and far between I think Perth is a standout. Their home form is incredibly strong, and although Western Sydney is coming off a huge win, I’m not 100% sure they can back it up with a similar performance, especially on the other side of the country. $2.30 is more than enough for me to have a gamble on Perth.
Next Best Value
Brisbane/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60
This game looks to be going ”Overs” all day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-1 score line, so I don’t think there will be any trouble covering the 2.5, I reckon Brisbane have a good chance of covering that themselves. $1.60 is short, but I think it’s still pretty generous considering the matchup.
Best Value:
1st: Perth – Head to Head – $2.30
2nd: Brisbane/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60
3rd: Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.64
Melbourne City v Sydney FC
Friday 24 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Round 21 gets underway on Friday night with Melbourne City hosting Sydney at AAMI Park. Melbourne City is coming off a great win last week against Wellington over in New Zealand. Road matches are never usually easy, but Melbourne City had no trouble over coming the trip when they ran away with their 5-1 win. That win pushes them up into third position on the ladder, and while it is a long shot, they still have a hope of finishing in the top two. Sydney was on the receiving end of their first loss for the 2016/17 season when they faced their rivals Western Sydney on Saturday. Sydney dominated most of the match, but they just couldn’t find the back of the net, despite the eighteen shots they had. An early goal to Western Sydney was the difference in the end. Sydney had to eventually lose a game but I’m sure they’d be very disappointed it came at the hands of Western Sydney. This loss has also given Melbourne Victory a sniff that the premiership might not be quite over yet. I really couldn’t split the two teams, and rated them exactly the same. You’d think Sydney would be able to bounce back after their first loss, but Melbourne City is in cracking form. It’s going to be the case for a few games this weekend but there just appears to be no value in the current markets. If Over 2.5 Goals was to drift a little I’d be interested, but that’s it.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 2
Sydney 0
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $2.75
Sydney $2.75
Draw $3.67
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.70 Everywhere
Sydney $2.50 Everywhere
Draw $3.60 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $2.00
Sydney $2.00
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.00 William Hill, Unibet
Sydney $1.88 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.70
Over $1.59
Market Price:
Under $2.17 Unibet
Over $1.70 Everywhere
Value: No value
Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday 25 February, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
The first game of the Saturday triple-header is Brisbane versus Wellington. Brisbane was away to Perth last week and put in a fairly decent showing. To me the match looked rather tight on paper, and that’s exactly how it ended up playing out. Brisbane took and early lead, then Perth leveled it up, Brisbane took another lead, and once again Perth leveled it up. The final score of 2-2 seems a fitting result for what was a tight, entertaining game. Wellington was embarrassed last week when they hosted Melbourne City. There were no excuses for their 5-1 loss, which should never happen when playing at home. While they are still in reach of finals, how they’ve been playing lately, I’m pretty sure we won’t see them there. As long as Brisbane turns up I think they’ll win this one, it’s as simple as that. The way Wellington’s defense has been playing; I think Over 2.5 Goals is the way to play this match. Brisbane should have no shortage of shots on target, and even in losses Wellington often knock home a goal in of their own.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Wellington 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.57
Wellington $6.83
Draw $4.63
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.70 William Hill
Wellington $5.00 Everywhere
Draw $4.00 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.23
Wellington $5.35
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.30 Bet365, William Hill
Wellington $3.75 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.15
Over $1.46
Market Price:
Under $2.38 Unibet
Over $1.60 Everywhere
Value: Brisbane/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.60
Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United
Saturday 25 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Here’s a one-sided match if I’ve ever seen one; Melbourne Victory hosts Adelaide at AAMI Park in what should be three points to the boys in blue. Melbourne Victory was as impressive as ever in their match last Sunday. They were on the road to Central Coast and as you’d expect the result never looked in doubt. Melbourne Victory ended up winning 3-0, led by Berisha who added another two goals to his tally for the season. Adelaide played Newcastle in Round 20 and even though it looked a very winnable match for them, I’m still surprised to say that they did actually win the match. It wasn’t super convincing, but I’m sure they’ll take their 1-0 win every day of the week after the season they’ve had. That win hasn’t moved them off the bottom of the ladder, but hopefully it will give them confidence going forward. Like I mentioned earlier, this should be a very easy win for Melbourne Victory, if they can’t win this then they don’t deserve to be in the premiership/championship hunt. Again, there is just not enough value in any of the prices for me to make a selection. Under 2.5 Goals is tempting at the $2.60, but would just like a slightly higher price before making it a selection.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Adelaide 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.48
Adelaide $7.78
Draw $5.08
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.45 TopBetta
Adelaide $7.50 Unibet
Draw $4.60 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.19
Adelaide $6.24
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.16 Sportsbet
Adelaide $6.00 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.42
Over $1.70
Market Price:
Under $2.60 Unibet
Over $1.51 Sportsbet
Value: No value
Perth Glory v Western Sydney
Saturday 25 February, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
It’s another late one for east coast fans as Perth and Western Sydney get under away at around 10:00pm on Saturday night. Perth was up against Brisbane last week in a back-and-forth match that ended up in a draw. Perth trailed on two separate occasions, but they kept fighting, getting themselves back into the contest. When the final whistle was blown to scoreboard showed 2-2, which I think both teams would have to admit was a pretty fair result. Western Sydney would have been partying after their win in the Sydney Derby on Saturday. They hadn’t won a Derby in ages, and the fact that it was the first loss of the season for Sydney would make it even sweeter. It was the man Santalab that won the day for them, as he has done so many times before. That win has come just at the right time for them, and I’m sure that will give them the confidence that the can win every game they go into for the remainder of the season. I think this is Perth’s game to lose, Western Sydney often struggles on the road, and Perth really can’t afford to drop points from this fixture. I’ve rated Perth about evens, so I’m pretty surprised you can get as much as $2.30 about them, I think that is definitely the way to go in this one.
Last 5 games:
Perth 0
Western Sydney 2
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $2.00
Western Sydney $4.05
Draw $3.95
Market Price:
Perth $2.30 William Hill
Western Sydney $3.10 Sportsbet
Draw $3.75 TopBetta
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.49
Western Sydney $3.02
Market Price:
Perth $1.64 Unibet
Western Sydney $2.30 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.38
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $2.60 Everywhere
Over $1.51 Sportsbet
Value: Perth – Head to Head – $2.30
Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.64
Newcastle Jets v Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 26 February, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
The final game for the round is on Sunday at Hunter Stadium between Newcastle and Central Coast. Newcastle played Adelaide on the road last week, and although they went into the match as underdogs, I’m a little disappointed with their performance; I thought they could cause an upset. It wasn’t to be though, they struggled to find the goals all night, and the few shots on target they had, weren’t good enough to score. Central Coast had a 3-0 loss, but they were up against Melbourne Victory, so that was pretty much to be expected. Prior to that they had won a few on the trot, so maybe after that speed bump they will be able to get back to their previous form. I have no doubt that Newcastle should be winning this game; I think they have a side that has the potential to play finals (probably only the first week of finals though). So annoying, but again the market is bang on, so there are no selections for the match. Keep an eye on Newcastle though, if they get out near the $1.90 that would be good enough for me.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 2
Central Coast 0
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.69
Central Coast $5.22
Draw $4.64
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.78 Unibet
Central Coast $4.33 Palmerbet
Draw $4.00 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.32
Central Coast $4.09
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.35 Unibet
Central Coast $3.25 William Hill, Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.77
Over $1.56
Market Price:
Under $2.50 Bet365
Over $1.54 Unibet
Value: No value
