Best Value
The best value of the weekend looks to me like Melbourne City with money back for the draw. At this early stage of the season they look to be the superior of the Melbourne sides and I definitely think they should be coming into this derby as the favourite. The fact that you can get even money about them in the Draw No Bet market seems too good to be true.
Next Best Value
Could be seeing this bet a few times throughout the year, but the Over 2.5 Goals in Perth looks a great bet. Even though it’s a short quote of $1.54, that doesn’t scare me off. Last week there were 6 goals scored over in the west, who knows, it could be a similar scenario this week.
Thanks for reading as always, any questions send them my way on twitter @AL_TheProfits.
Best Value:
1st : Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.00.
2nd : Perth/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.54.
3rd : Adelaide – Head to Head – $2.10.
4th : Sydney/Central Coast – Over 2.5 goals – $1.60.
Adelaide United v Western Sydney Wanderers
Friday 14 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
Round 2 kicks off over in Adelaide as United host the Western Sydney Wanderers. Last week Adelaide dropped a couple of points they probably weren’t expecting to, but after falling behind 1-0 early in the game, I think they’d be relatively pleased sharing the points with Newcastle. It’s never easy starting the season off with a road trip, so I think they’ll be back in their comfort zone at Hindmarsh this week. Western Sydney was atrocious in the Sydney Derby last Saturday. Before kickoff it looked like it could be a close game, and they went into the game against their rivals as favourites. At the break it was still 0-0, and anyone’s game, but once the second half kicked off it was all one-way traffic. Sydney poured on 4 unanswered goals, to leave Western Sydney exiting the game with their head hung in shame. It’s obviously only early days, but they wouldn’t want another performance like that. Adelaide was decent enough last week, so back at home this week they’ll be incredibly hard to beat. Anything near even money for Adelaide looks good enough for me.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 1
Western Sydney 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.79
Western Sydney $4.90
Draw $4.23
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.10 Unibet
Western Sydney $3.50 Palmerbet, Unibet
Draw $3.60 Palmerbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.37
Western Sydney $3.74
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.52 Unibet
Western Sydney $2.60 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.49
Over $1.67
Market Price:
Under $2.10 Unibet
Over $1.80 Sportsbet, Bet365
Value: Adelaide – Head to Head – $2.10.
Adelaide – Draw Ne Bet – $1.52.
Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners
Saturday 15 October, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
It’s an all NSW affair on Saturday arvo as Central Coast head to Allianz Stadium to face the early table leaders Sydney. The boys in sky blue will be feeling great after their demolition of Western Sydney in the Sydney Derby. It was a tight arm wrestle for the first half, but once they broke loose in the second half there was no stopping Sydney. They scored 4 goals in the second half, all from different players, showing their versatility. It will be hard for them to back that up with another, just as impressive performance, but they should be able to show something similar. Central Coast was down 3-0 at half time to Perth, and I think most (including myself), thought the game was all but over. But to their credit they kept fighting and managed to pull back 3 goals of their own. The game ended a draw, and I’d imagine Central Coast would be extremely happy with their 1 point out of a road trip to Perth. As good as Central Coast was last week, Sydney was better. I struggle to see Central Coast backing it up again this week, but even if they did, Sydney would probably still be too strong. Bookmakers have the Head to Head prices pretty much right, but I think the Over 2.5 Goals at $1.60 is good shopping. Sydney’s game last week had 4 goals and Central Coast’s had 6, any free flowing football like that is sure to see at least 3 goals buried.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 4
Central Coast 1
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.44
Central Coast $9.17
Draw $5.09
Market Price:
Sydney $1.38 William Hill, Unibet
Central Coast $9.00 Bet365
Draw $5.00 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.16
Central Coast $7.37
Market Price:
Sydney $1.11 Everywhere
Central Coast $7.00 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.43
Over $1.41
Market Price:
Under $2.70 Bet365
Over $1.60 William Hill
Value: Sydney/Central Coast – Over 2.5 goals – $1.60.
Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City
Saturday 15 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium
Here’s the big ticket of the round, it’s the Melbourne Derby and it will be very interesting to see who takes the honours. Melbourne Victory was playing away last week to Brisbane and went into the game as the underdog. A 0-0 draw was looking very likely with no goals being scored for the first 80 minutes, but after that are when the sparks started to fly. Melbourne Victory scored a goal courtesy of Austin and they assumed all 3 points were there’s, but a defensive slip up in the last minute of the game cost them. Brisbane scored back leveling things up, both teams had to settle for just the 1 point. Melbourne City did what they needed to win over in New Zealand on Saturday against Wellington. They won the match 1-0, most watching the game think they should of put at least 1 or 2 more goals on, but that wasn’t needed to secure the points in their opening game. This game will be a cracker, both teams will be out to show that they’re the dominant force in Melbourne, and while bookmakers think its Victory, I think its City. Big prices are being offered about Melbourne City, and I think the best of them is the $2.00 in the Draw No Market, I think it’s unlikely that they’ll come out of the game without at least a point, if not all 3.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Melbourne City 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $3.73
Melbourne City $2.16
Draw $3.71
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.52 Unibet
Melbourne City $2.75 Bet365
Draw $4.00 Ladbrokes
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.73
Melbourne City $1.58
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.85 Everywhere
Melbourne City $2.00 Ubet, Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.55
Over $1.64
Market Price:
Under $2.75 Unibet
Over $1.63 TAB
Value: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.75.
Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $2.00.
Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar
Sunday 16 October, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
Sunday afternoon see’s an interesting game for two teams that both had draws last week, one as a favourite and one as an underdog. Newcastle hosted Adelaide last week, and while being the home side, they were given some chance, but most thought Adelaide would open their 2016/17 season with a win. It was actually Newcastle that drew first blood with a goal early on, they couldn’t hold on though and the game ended up coming to a close at 1-1. Brisbane on the other hand was a short priced favourite in their match against Melbourne Victory. They game sat at 0-0 for a good portion of the time but Melbourne broke the deadlock with 10 minutes to play. Brisbane somehow scored with practically the last kick of the game to have a share of the points. Brisbane deserve to be favourite, but I don’t think it will be a walk in the park for them, they’ll know Newcastle means business. The bookies are all over this one and I couldn’t find any value to be honest, this is a sit out game for me.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 0
Brisbane 2
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $3.55
Brisbane $2.22
Draw $3.73
Market Price:
Newcastle $3.20 Palmerbet, Unibet
Brisbane $2.30 Sportsbet
Draw $3.60 bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.60
Brisbane $1.63
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.33 Unibet
Brisbane $1.65 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.54
Over $1.65
Market Price:
Under $2.20 Unibet
Over $1.70 Bet365, Palmerbet
Value: No value.
Perth Glory v Wellington Phoenix
Sunday 16 October, 7:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
The weekend finishes over west with Perth taking on Wellington. Perth would have frustrated a lot of punters last Saturday night. They looked the good thing of the round when they hosted Central Coast and I’m sure they would of anchored a few multi’s, and to make things worse, they went into halftime 3-0 up. At that stage most would of turned the TV off, thinking this is a foregone conclusion, but that’s not what panned out. I still don’t know how they managed to do it, but they conceded 3 goals in the second half to only take a single point out of the game, it was very disappointing. Wellington was hosting Melbourne City, so it always looked tough for them. They lost 1-0, but never really looked that threatening and the result was always going to be a Melbourne City win. Perth get every chance to get back into the winners circle this week, if they don’t come away with all three points serious questions will be asked. Best value of this fixture looks the Over 2.5 goals, last week I said I thought Perth could cover the 2.5 their selves, and they did, and I think they can do it again.
Last 5 games:
Perth 3
Wellington 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $1.57
Wellington $6.69
Draw $4.66
Market Price:
Perth $1.67 Sportsbet
Wellington $5.25 Bet365
Draw $4.40 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.23
Wellington $5.26
Market Price:
Perth $1.25 Unibet
Wellington $4.00 Bet365, William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $4.23
Over $1.31
Market Price:
Under $2.55 Unibet
Over $1.54 Sportsbet
Value: Perth/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.54.
