It was a great start to the A League season hitting 3 out of the 4 selections last weekend. It’s hard to make out which teams have improved or declined with so many teams being hit massively with players on international duties, injuries and also being the opening round of the year. So we won’t drop off anyone just yet but Victory didn’t appear very impressive, although it was the Derby, which can definitively be a forgive match for teams, we’ll see how they fair this week. Newcastle looked very average and they’re supporters are going to have another long season ahead of them I think. Adelaide probably came out of the round looking most impressive, holding onto their 3-1 lead, even after 2 players received red cards.
Note that both Ladbrokes (max $50) and Sportingbet ($100) are offering money back if you bet on the standard market, lose, and the score finishes at 0-0. Granted a 0-0 score line is usually around $10+, so there’s a 10% chance or less of this happening, but if they have top price already it doesn’t hurt.
Best Value: Central Coast at $2.25 with Sportingbet
Second Best Value: Perth $3.20 with Betstar
Adelaide v Melbourne Victory
Friday 18 October 7:00pm (local) – Hindmarsh Stadium
Adelaide is the only lucky team to get to play their first 2 games of the season at home (Melbourne Heart did play “away” to Melbourne Victory though last week), which in A League is a massive advantage. They’d love to be able to clock up another win after their impressive opening match. Victory on the other hand were one of the disappointments of Round 1, drawing 0-0 in the Melbourne Derby, but the Derby is always a tight match so we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for now. Even though I do have a big opinion of Adelaide, if Melbourne Victory recapture their form of last season they should be able to chalk up their first win of the season. I’m not surprised the market is as it is, with Adelaide receiving a bit of hype after last weekend, but this just gives us an inflated price for Melbourne Victory.
Last 5 games
Adelaide 2
Draw 2
Melbourne Victory 1
Rated Prices
Adelaide $3.26
Draw $3.68
Melbourne Victory $2.37
Market
Adelaide $2.55 TAB
Draw $3.40 Sportsbet/Betstar/Sporting/Tatts/TAB
Melbourne Victory $3.00 Sportingbet
Best Value: Melbourne Victory at $3 with Sportingbet
Note: Ladbrokes are offering a bonus bet to match your wager ($200 max) on this match, if you back the correct result. They have Melbourne Victory at $2.75, so basically you’re getting $3.75 about them.
Melbourne Heart v Central Coast
Saturday 19 October 5:30pm (local) – Aami Park
Melbourne Heart will have high hopes after coming off a draw to Melbourne Victory when they were a massive underdog, but I think the draw was more a case of Melbourne Victory being poor rather than Melbourne Heart being impressive. Central Coast on the other hand will be disappointed with their draw, even though it was up against the minor premiers from last season, they would of really wanted to get the win in their opening game to back up their status as last seasons champions. Melbourne Heart will be severely outclassed on Saturday and Central Coast won’t want to head back to NSW with anything less than the 3 points. I’m pretty shocked bookies are offering better than even money for Central Coast, they must not like money. This looks to be the best value of the weekend as I have them rated the very short price of $1.42.
Last 5 games
Melbourne Heart 1
Draw 0
Central Coast 4
Rated Prices
Melbourne Heart $9.84
Draw $5.13
Central Coast $1.42
Market
Melbourne Heart $3.20 Sportsbet/Tatts/Ladbrokes
Draw $3.50 Sportingbet
Central Coast $2.25 Sportingbet
Best Value: Central Coast at $2.25 with Sportingbet
Brisbane v Sydney
Saturday 19 October 6:45pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane was far from impressive against Wellington, but they got it done in the end (thankfully). They were down 1-0 at HT and came back to win 2-1 with a late goal in injury time, so that was a positive after a sleepy opening half from them. Sydney did what they should of, taking care of an average Newcastle side relatively easily, always looking like they had the upper hand. Brisbane deserve to be the clear favourite for this match, but the best price around for them is $1.72, which looks to be serious unders. Even though I rate Sydney a $3.47 chance, the fact that $5.50 is available makes them selection for this match. Obviously you can’t expect to win every time when backing $5.50 shots, but if your rated prices are accurate then you’ll end up ahead ahead in the long run.
Last 5 games
Brisbane 3
Draw 0
Sydney 2
Rated Prices
Brisbane $2.21
Draw $3.85
Sydney $3.47
Market
Brisbane $1.72 Sportingbet
Draw $3.85 TAB
Sydney $5.50 Sportsbet
Best Value: Sydney at $5.50 with Sportsbet
Newcastle v Perth
Sunday 20 October 3:00pm (local) – Hunter Stadium
Newcastle was unsurprisingly well covered by Sydney and never really looking that threatening, hopefully they can show more fight this weekend back at home. Perth weren’t overly convincing either, easily being held by Adelaide, and couldn’t even peg back the difference when they had 2 extra men on the pitch. I know I keep on saying it but I have Newcastle on a very low rating, only slightly above Wellington, so until they show more I will most likely be opposing them as markets seem to have a better opinion of them than I do. The fact that Newcastle is the favourite for this match is crazy, of the last 5 meetings between these two clubs they haven’t won 1, with Perth winning 4 and the other a draw. Perth’s price of $3.20 looks very juicy and seems like great value.
Last 5 games
Newcastle 0
Draw 1
Perth 4
Rated Prices
Newcastle $3.65
Draw $3.95
Perth $2.12
Market
Newcastle $2.35 TAB
Draw $3.50 Sportingbet
Perth $3.20 Betstar
Best Value: Perth at $3.20 with Betstar
Western Sydney v Wellington
Sunday 20 October 5:00pm (local) – Pirtek Stadium
This could be one of the most one-sided games of the season. The crowd at Pirtek Stadium will be going nuts for Western Sydney’s first home game of the season. The reining minor premiers only managed a single point in their opening game, but they were on the road to Central Coast, so taking a point away from there is no mean feat. Although I think Wellington can improve on their efforts last season they are still a long way off these tops clubs. They almost got away with a minor result in their opening game if it wasn’t for an injury time goal to Brisbane to get them over the line at the death. Wellington only manage to win 15% of road games in recent times, along with Western Sydney’s great overall record of only losing 23% of their games points to Western Sydney easily posting their first win. Even though the best price around is $1.53, it still looks to be decent value as I’ve got them rated at $1.37.
Last 3 games
Western Sydney 2
Draw 0
Wellington 1
Rated Prices
Western Sydney $1.36
Draw $6.03
Wellington $10.27
Market
Western Sydney $1.53 Sportsbet
Draw $4.25 Tatts
Wellington $7.00 Betstar/Sportingbet/Ladbrokes/Luxbet
Best Value: Western Sydney at $1.53 with Sportsbet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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