Round 18 was one I’d rather forget about. To put it lightly, pretty much got murdered. Was shocked when the numbers gave me a play in every match (unheard of lately), and that wasn’t for the best. Melbourne Heart (of all teams) was the only team to get the chocolates for us.
While I thought Western Sydney had a big chance of winning the draw with Brisbane didn’t overly surprise me, so not shocked by that result. But how Melbourne Victory beat Central Coast so comfortably I don’t know, they have been in average form and then to pull out a 3-1 win on the road against a top side, who knows.
Also, Adelaide comprehensively taking care of Sydney, I did not see that coming. They got a couple of goals early and from then on the result never looked in doubt, it’s definitely what they needed heading towards the end of the season.
Melbourne Heart were expected to win, and they did get it done, even if not super impressive, the 3 points is all that matters and they sure needed it. They’re up to 3 wins for the season, and while the season is more than likely over, they need to finish the season strongly to build on the future.
Wellington also got the better of Newcastle when a decent priced underdog in a high scoring affair. Wellington’s stars stood up with goals from both Hernandez and Huysegems, 2 players that have made this season exciting for Wellington supporters and keeping them in the finals hunt.
On the plus side, I expected the Sydney/Adelaide game to go overs, and it did just that. If I had to guess that the overs was going to come in the form of 3 goals to Adelaide I would have struggled, but overs is overs.
We have a smaller than usual round this week with the Melbourne Victory/Western Sydney game being completed earlier in the season due to scheduling requirements. This means we are left with 4 games on the weekend, it looks a tough round but there is one team that I’m particularly keen on.
Best of luck with any wagers that you lay down over the weekend.
Best Value: Sydney at $2.20 with Betstar/Sportingbet/TAB.
Adelaide v Central Coast
Friday 14 February 7:00pm (local) – Coopers Stadium
The round kicks of on Valentines Day with Adelaide (the Reds, maybe an omen bet) hosting Central Coast. The home team is coming off an impressive road win in Sydney last week that jumped them up into a finals position with the season drawing to an end. Central Coast had the opposite result, losing 3-1 to Melbourne Victory when they were expected to come away with all the points. That has now put them on equal points with Melbourne Victory, only ahead of them on goal difference, a home final could be slipping out of their hands. The head to head record between these clubs definitely sits heavily in Central Coast’s favour. They have won a super impressive 9 out of the last 10 meetings between these sides, something that might get in the home sides head a little. If I was forced to have a bet it would be on Central Coast, they do appear to be a slight bit of value, I have them at $3.18 and $3.40 is available, but that isn’t enough of an edge to suck me in. If they get out to $3.50 I would be more interested. More appealing is the over 2.5 goal option, 7 out of the last 9 times these teams have played the game has had 3+ goals, can’t see why that wouldn’t be the case again.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 1
Draw 0
Central Coast 4
Rated Prices:
Adelaide $2.40
Draw $3.71
Central Coast $3.18
Market:
Adelaide $2.30 TAB
Draw $3.40 TAB, Sportingbet
Central Coast $3.30 Sportingbet, Tatts
Best Value: Nothing.
Sydney v Perth
Saturday 15 February 5:30pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
There’s only one match this Saturday, and it’s a day game. It’s pretty rare to not have a game on Saturday night but that’s what we have this week. Anyway in this fixture we will see Perth travel to Sydney to try and break their 4 game winless streak. While Perth are coming off a loss to Melbourne Heart, it wasn’t that bad of a result with most predicting they’d find it hard to come away with anything. Sydney’s loss to Adelaide was the opposite, they were firm favourites and gave very little, losing 3-0, and at home, it wasn’t great. Sydney will be looking to get back into their form of a few weeks ago when they beat up Melbourne Victory 5-0, and while I don’t think they’ll win 5-0, I think they should be able to get the job done here. Perth obviously has to travel some distance when they go on the road. They have struggled when travelling this season, they’ve only managed to win 1 game outside WA. A few bookmakers are offering $2.20 for Sydney and I think that’s a great price, I have them at $1.89. I’m surprised they aren’t odds on and think they’ll get every chance to get back into their winning ways.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Draw 1
Perth 2
Rated Prices:
Sydney $1.89
Draw $3.92
Perth $4.63
Market:
Sydney $2.20 Betstar, Sportingbet, TAB
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet
Perth $3.25 Most Bookmakers
Best Value: Sydney at $2.20 with Betstar/Sportingbet/TAB.
Wellington v Melbourne Heart
Sunday 16 February 5:00pm (local) – Westpac Stadium
Sunday’s double-header gets underway in New Zealand with Wellington hosting Melbourne Heart. Both teams are coming off wins and will be hoping to string 3 wins together. Wellington have been in very good form since the new year, putting together classy wins, and coming away with draws when they’ve been outplayed. They’ve even managed to sneak into a finals place, which they won’t be giving up quickly. While Melbourne Heart are in a lot better form than earlier in the season, all 3 of their wins have came at home, they’re yet to scratch one up on the road, and I can’t see them doing it when they have to cross the Tasman. To make things worse for the road team, of their 10 matches against Wellington, a side that hasn’t been great over the past few seasons, they’ve only managed to win 2 games. I think Wellington should come away with all 3 points here, I have them right down at $1.79 but with the best price around $1.87 at Sportingbet I can’t quite back them. This is still the second best value of the round, and if they get out to the $1.95- $2.00 range I’ll be keen to jump on then.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 3
Draw 2
Melbourne Heart 0
Rated Prices:
Wellington $1.79
Draw $4.13
Melbourne Heart $5.05
Market:
Wellington $1.87 Sportingbet
Draw $3.70 Tatts
Melbourne Heart $4.33 Betstar
Best Value: Nothing.
Brisbane v Newcastle
Sunday 16 February 4:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
We close out the round in Queensland where Newcastle is travelling to take on league leaders Brisbane. This is the most one sided game of the round, if Brisbane don’t take care of the visitors there is something wrong with them. Brisbane had a pretty decent performance last week when they went on the road to Western Sydney and came away with a point, not a feat a lot of teams can claim doing. While Newcastle got nudged out by Wellington, losing 3-2, and even though Wellington are in good form, they would have been disappointed to not come away with at least a draw. Anybody could tip up Brisbane, but I don’t actually think they’re value. I have them very short at $1.51, but the best you can get is $1.45, and they’re shorter everywhere else. Newcastle is the slightest bit of overs, but nowhere near what they need to be to make them backable. I’d need either $1.65 for Brisbane or $8.00 for Newcastle, neither of which is very likely. More interestingly, 4 out of the last 5 games these two teams have played against each other have resulted in 2 or less goals scored. While I don’t generally like tipping unders in the A League, this looks like one of the times it might be a good option.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 1
Draw 1
Newcastle 3
Rated Prices:
Brisbane $1.51
Draw $4.93
Newcastle $7.33
Market:
Brisbane $1.45 TAB
Draw $4.65 Sportingbet
Newcastle $7.50 Tatts, Betstar, Sportingbet
Best Value: Nothing.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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