Round 17 was another good round for us, making a slight profit from the 2 suggested plays. We finished up with 1 win (Wellington) and 1 lose (Perth), and once again our loss came at the hands of a penalty, I think that’s 3 weeks in a row now, but can’t complain, these things happen.
Thankfully the best value of the round won easy. Wellington got the lead early in the match then held it all the way to the final whistle, winning 2-1. They allowed a very late goal to ruin their clean sheet, but that didn’t take any gloss away from their impressive performance.
Melbourne Heart and Brisbane both got the job done as most expected, each winning the respective matches 2-1 when favourites.
Perth and Western Sydney both could only managed draws when I thought they had every chance to come away with all 3 points. Perth gave away a penalty early to Melbourne Victory that was easily slotted by Finkler and from then on could only manage to score an equaliser. Western Sydney had the game all sewn up until Taggart tied the game up in injury for Newcastle. That could come back to bite Western Sydney in their hunt for back to back premierships as Brisbane now have a gap on them.
Another positive was the 2 games that we thought would go over 2.5 goals (Wellington/Adelaide and Newcastle/Western Sydney) both did, so hopefully a few of you got some money out of that.
On to Round 18 and can’t wait for the weekend to start. For the first time in a long time I believe there is value to be had in every match, which is very surprising after so many of the games in recent rounds having markets that were spot on with how I’ve thought the games would play out.
Bets of luck if you’re putting some of your hard earned on the A League this weekend, hopefully we get some good results.
Best Value: Central Coast at $2.05 with TAB.
Second Best Value: Sydney at $2.40 with Tatts.
Western Sydney v Brisbane
Friday 7 January 7:30pm (local) – Pirtek Stadium
We kick off the round in Parramatta with Western Sydney hosting Brisbane. This is clearly the match of the round, the top 2 title contenders fighting it out. Brisbane have opened up a gap at the top of the table and if they can come away with all 3 points on Friday night the premiership is all but wrapped up. It won’t be easy for them though, Western Sydney have a big advantage playing at home in front of their ever intimidating band of supporters. They’ve won over 60% of their games at home this season and I think they should be able to chalk another one this week. Unfortunately for the home side, Brisbane has clearly the best road record of any team and won’t go down without a fight. I think Western Sydney should be basically even money, meaning the $2.45 on offer at Sportingbet is great value. While there does look to better value plays coming up over the rest of the round, I’m still pretty keen on the reining premiers here.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 4
Draw 0
Brisbane 1
Rated Prices:
Western Sydney $2.01
Draw $3.87
Brisbane $4.11
Market:
Western Sydney $2.45 Sportingbet
Draw $3.50 Tatts
Brisbane $3.00 Sportsbet, Betstar
Best Value: Western Sydney at $2.45 with Sportingbet.
Central Coast v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 8 February 5:30pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium
Another interesting match here, in the grand scheme of things, one of these 2 teams is most likely going to hold down the elusive third spot on the ladder and secure themselves a home final. Despite this, this looks by far the most one-sided game this weekend. Melbourne Victory was lucky to come away with a draw last week courtesy of a penalty. They’ve been in awful form of late and are still yet to record a win in 2014, in which they’ve recorded a 3-0 loss and 2x 5-0 losses. Central Coast on the other hand hasn’t been too bad, nothing to write home about though. Central Coast has only lost 1 game at home this season and Melbourne Victory has only won 1 game on the road, hence my confidence in the home side. One of the most interesting things of this fixture will be seeing how Rogic handles the pressure up against his old side now he is wearing blue, can he help Melbourne Victory get a much needed result out of this game, or will he crumble under the pressure. Realistically, I don’t know what is TAB thinking putting up black figures for Central Coast, they should be odds on, and deep in the red at that. $2.05 seems a luxurious price and I think the best value of the weekend, looks some of the best value around in a while. While they might not start as low as my rated price of $1.56, they surely won’t start $2.05 either. Melbourne Victory also haven’t won in the last 5 times these teams have met, to add to the confidence about the home side.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 3
Draw 2
Melbourne Victory 0
Rated Prices:
Central Coast $1.56
Draw $4.78
Melbourne Victory $6.73
Market:
Central Coast $2.05 TAB
Draw $3.50 Tatts, Betstar
Melbourne Victory $4.20 Sportsbet
Best Value: Central Coast at $2.05 with TAB.
Sydney v Adelaide
Saturday 8 February 7:45pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
Saturday nights match is a little less interesting than the earlier 2 games of the round, luckily there is some good value to keep us watching it. Adelaide will head to Sydney in what looks to be a pretty lopsided affair. Both teams are coming off 2-1 losses, although they were both underdogs in their fixtures so it’s not the worst form going around. Sydney have just got Ognenovski’s signature on the dotted line and the classy centre-back is scheduled to be playing this Saturday. He’ll definitely strengthen their back line and will hopefully lead to them getting a few more clean sheets towards the end of the season. I can really see Adelaide being dominated in this game and getting a low percentage of the possession which should give Sydney plenty of chances, they just need to convert a couple of them. I’m quite surprised that there is only $0.60 between these 2 in the market, I have a pretty big gap between them in my market. Sydney look to be great value this weekend at $2.40 with Tatts, hopefully it is a Saturday fill up for us all with our best value games of the round following each other. For over/under punters, the last 7 times these teams have played it has gone over 2.5 goals, and 9 times out of their last 10 fixtures. Overs look likely once again.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Draw 1
Adelaide 2
Rated Prices:
Sydney $1.91
Draw $4.07
Adelaide $4.33
Market:
Sydney $2.40 Tatts
Draw $3.60 Sportingbet
Adelaide $3.00 Sportsbet
Best Value: Sydney at $2.40 with Tatts.
Melbourne Heart v Perth
Sunday 9 February 3:00pm (local) – Lavington Sports Ground (Albury)
Melbourne Heart host Perth at the unusual venue of the Lavington Sports Ground in Albury. Melbourne Heart are in their season best form, winning 2 out of their last 3 games and coming away with a draw in the other, while they were the laughing stock of the league early on, they’re now a more than competitive team. The season looks to be long gone for them now, but if they can keep up their good performances they’re a longshot of maybe sneaking into the finals. Meanwhile Perth is only out of the finals position at the moment by goal difference, a good performance here and they could bump themselves into sixth position. Even though we have a value bet in every match this round, this is the game with clearly the least value about it. Also, my rating of Melbourne Heart is of them playing at “home”, which is technically correct, but not sure how well they will go up at Albury. If you want a bet definitely go for it, but if you are happy to let a game go through to the keeper this round, this is probably the one.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Heart 2
Draw 0
Perth 3
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Heart $1.98
Draw $3.86
Perth $4.26
Market:
Melbourne Heart $2.15 TAB
Draw $3.65 Sportingbet
Perth $3.60 Sportsbet
Best Value: Minimum value Melbourne Heart at $2.15 with TAB.
Newcastle v Wellington
Sunday 9 February 5:00pm (local) – Hunter Stadium
Round 18 finishes up Sunday evening with Wellington visiting Newcastle. Newcastle came away with an impressive point last week against Western Sydney when they were a decent priced underdog. Probably more importantly for them was the fact that Taggart netted both goals for them, hopefully empowering the young star with some confidence heading into the tight end of the season. With Griffiths out after a red card last week, he should once again get his chance to shine. Wellington got the job done easily last week against Adelaide, although most (including myself) expected nothing less from them. I’m keen on Newcastle but the major issue for the home team is getting the 3 points, you have to go back to before Christmas to find the last time they got a win, it’s been a while between drinks and they really need to get a move along. They started the season so strong, and now they are only 1 position above Melbourne Heart on the bottom of the ladder. Newcastle look to be pretty good value in this fixture, I’m just a little nervous about their win draught. I think Taggart could be the game decider here, if he plays well, and shows the skills we know he has in his arsenal, the home side should be able to get that win they desperately require.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 1
Draw 2
Wellington 2
Rated Prices:
Newcastle $1.98
Draw $4.00
Wellington $4.07
Market:
Newcastle $2.30 Tatts, Sportingbet
Draw $3.45 TAB
Wellington $3.20 Betstar
Best Value: Newcastle at $2.30 with Tatts/Sportingbet.
