We’re coming off a good week, 3 selections, 2 wins, and they both got in easy. It would have been a great weekend if Adelaide didn’t decide to go and give a penalty away, with the game finished 2-2, without that penalty would have been 3 for 3 last week, oh well, still a positive result.
The results went very much as expected for most of the games last week. Central Coast and Western Sydney both got their jobs done easily and backers were never in doubt. Adelaide, as mentioned above took an early lead, then gave it away by sending Kewell to the spot. They went down another goal but then got a late equaliser to take 1 point out of the game. Brisbane won well enough, although you would have been a little nervous if you took the short odds as they only found the winner in the last 10 minutes of the game.
Now for the game that I’m sure everyone is talking about, Melbourne Victory and Sydney. Sydney tore them apart winning 5-0, don’t think anyone seen that coming, Melbourne Victory were short priced favourites. Melbourne Victory are looking like they’re in some real trouble after losing 5-0 two weeks in a row, serious questions are being asked about Muscat and his team.
We head into Round 17 full of confidence after a good round last week, and there are 2 games that I’m very interested in. Interestingly the best value of the weekend is Wellington, and I haven’t tipped them once this season, they also appear to be pretty big overs, I haven’t seen value like this for about a month I don’t think.
All right, let’s get stuck into the games this week, best of luck if you’re having a punt this weekend.
Best Value: Wellington at $2.20 Luxbet/Betstar
Second Best Value: Perth at $2.30 with Betstar/Luxbet.
Melbourne Heart v Sydney
Friday 31 January 7:30pm (local) – AAMI Park
The round kicks off with a Friday night double header. First up we have the “in form” Melbourne Heart hosting Sydney. I have “in form” in quotation marks because they still have only won 1 game for the season, but they have landed 5 points in their last 4 games, so that’s not too bad. Sydney broke their mini draught by tearing Melbourne Victory a new one. They won 5-0, and to top it off the game was played in Melbourne, it was a monster performance, but may say more about Melbourne Victory than Sydney, either way it was super impressive. They are back in Melbourne this week, different venue, but will be looking for the same result they got last week. The visitors also have the recent head to head form, including their matchup earlier this season. Melbourne Heart have only won 1 of their last 5 encounters with Sydney. Being played in Melbourne there is no doubt the home team should be favourites, I have them at $2.25, and the market sees the match very similar to me, with the highest on offer for Melbourne Heart $2.30 with TAB. Neither Sydney or the draw are good value either which means the first game of the double header is a leave match for me, but don’t worry, we’ll get a chance in the next match.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Heart 1
Draw 1
Sydney 3
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Heart $2.25
Draw $3.81
Sydney $3.42
Market:
Melbourne Heart $2.30 TAB
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet, Sportingbet
Sydney $3.30 Ladbrokes
Best Value: Nothing.
Perth v Melbourne Victory
Friday 31 January 6:45pm (local) – NIB Stadium
Perth is the lucky team that gets to face Melbourne Victory this week. After the last 2 weeks I think every team wants to play them and the fact that Perth get to host them on the other side of the country is an even bigger bonus for them. I say this often but I love Perth, they perform how you expect them to perform week in week out, they rarely vary from their rating which makes their games great to bet on. What more can be said about Melbourne Victory’s last 2 games, combine the scores of the games and they have lost 10-0. And against Sydney and Wellington, not stunning teams by any means. Travelling to Perth doesn’t help them much either, they have only managed to win 1 game this season when on the road. I’m quite surprised the market hasn’t acted more severely against Melbourne Victory, over the last month their ranking has taken a nose dive with me. I like the price that Betstar and Luxbet have about Perth, $2.30 looks over the odds for mine.
Last 5 games:
Perth 1
Draw 0
Melbourne Victory 4
Rated Prices:
Perth $2.11
Draw $3.80
Melbourne Victory $3.81
Market:
Perth $2.30 Betstar, Luxbet
Draw $3.60 Sportingbet
Melbourne Victory $3.10 Sportsbet
Best Value: Perth at $2.30 with Betstar/Luxbet.
Wellington v Adelaide
Saturday 1 February 7:30pm (local) – Eden Park
Saturday afternoon gets underway in New Zealand as Wellington host Adelaide at Eden Park in Auckland. Wellington is probably the form team in the league, they have been outstanding the last 2 months, and they come into this match with a huge chance of netting another 3 points. Adelaide have been better of late but only managing 1 point when at home to Melbourne Heart last week is a little disheartening. They’ve also only had the 1 away win this season, and when you have to travel across the Tasman, you want to have decent road form. I’m guessing you can see where I’m heading with this, I’m very keen on Wellington. I don’t think I’ve had a game where I believe there has been this much value since the new year. Even more of a shock is when I was looking at my past results, this is the first time I’ve ever suggested that Wellington is value this season. It’s our good friends at Betstar and Luxbet again that are offering the best price about the kiwis, a massive $2.20! I have them well into the red figures down at $1.88, I would be utterly shocked if they start the price listed above, surely they will shorten. If anyone wants another bet or don’t feel like backing Wellington for some reason, I noticed that over the last 4 meetings between these teams a massive 15 goals have been scored, suggesting that it should be a great game to watch, and over 2.5 goals looks a great chance.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 1
Draw 1
Adelaide 3
Rated Prices:
Wellington $1.88
Draw $4.08
Adelaide $4.47
Market:
Wellington $2.20 Luxbet, Betstar
Draw $3.50 Tatts, Sportingbet
Adelaide $3.25 Betstar
Best Value: Wellington at $2.20 Luxbet/Betstar
Newcastle v Western Sydney
Saturday 1 February 7:45pm (local) – Hunter Stadium
We have an all New South Wales affair on Saturday night. Newcastle is hosting Western Sydney in what looks to be a pretty close match. While Newcastle was the talk of the town earlier in the season the gloss has slightly come off them. They haven’t managed to come away with a win in over a month and they have now slipped out of the top 6 and out of a finals position. Western Sydney is far from the impressive team they were last year but is still a very good side. They’ve won 1 third of their road games this season, up there with the best in the league and will not want to lose their top 2 position to Central Coast. While the standard market doesn’t interest me, as there is no real value to be had, the over/under market might be the way to go. Of the 4 times these teams have played each other, 3 times there’s been 3 or more goals. Last week Western Sydney’s game provided 4 goals while in Newcastle’s game there were 3.
Last 4 games:
Newcastle 1
Draw 0
Western Sydney 3
Rated Prices:
Newcastle $3.18
Draw $3.81
Western Sydney $2.36
Market:
Newcastle $3.30 Sportingbet
Draw $3.50 Tatts, Sportingbet
Western Sydney $2.25 Betstar
Best Value: Nothing.
Brisbane v Central Coast
Sunday 2 February 4:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
Round 17 finishes on Sunday with the highlight of the weekend. League leaders Brisbane host Central Coast, who after a slow start to the season are starting to get the job done and they’ve taken up their position in the top 3. Both teams were good last week, each wining their matches, but it was Central Coast who gave Newcastle a touch up, winning 3-0, that was the more impressive of the two. Brisbane has the best home record of any team this season, winning a massive 70+% of games at Suncorp Stadium. While Central Coast are now in a “home final” position, they need to keep the points rolling with 3 teams within 2 games of them. Brisbane should have too many guns for Central Coast at home and I think they get every chance to extend their lead at the top of the table. Unfortunately TAB thinks the exact same as I do, we both have them at $1.77, and the other bookmakers have them shorter than that. Central Coast are a tiny bit of value at $5.00, but nowhere near enough for me to have a dabble. For me to have a financial interest I’d need one of the following, $1.95 for Brisbane, $5.40 for Central Coast or $4.80 for the draw, none of which look likely. Central Coast drifting is the only hope I’d say for me to be having a bet on A League this Sunday.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Draw 1
Central Coast 2
Rated Prices:
Brisbane $1.77
Draw $4.35
Central Coast $4.86
Market:
Brisbane $1.77 TAB
Draw $3.85 Sportingbet
Central Coast $5.00 Betstar
Best Value: Nothing.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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