So last week was 1 bet 1 loss, although we came close when selecting big $4.33 underdog Perth against league leaders Brisbane but they could only manage a draw. So close. The two leans on Saturday both got up (Wellington at $2.50 and Central Coast at $2.90) at big prices, but there was just not enough value to make them a selection, oh well.
A couple of surprises came out of round 15, firstly would have to be Melbourne Heart finally getting that elusive win they’ve been looking for all season, although we did have them as an equal favourite for the match, it was still a surprise to see them actually get it done. And they did it well, after going 1-0 down, they came back to win 3-1.
The other was Wellington’s astonishing performance. I thought they deserved to be a clear favourite (had them at $2.37) but I didn’t, and I don’t think anybody expected them to beat Melbourne Victory 5-0. Even though Wellington is still 9th on the table for the moment, they look to be the form side of the league, winning 4 of their last 5 games and the other being a draw.
Central Coast and Adelaide both came away with 1-0 wins in their matches, neither of which overly surprised.
We have a complete opposite round to last weekend this week. In round 15 the shortest rated price I had a favourite was $2.11, this week the longest rated price I have about a favourite is $1.65 (Melbourne Victory)! I’ve never seen a round where all the favourites are so short. And it’s not just my prices, the bookies have their pricings similar, with their longest price favourite for the round at $1.88 (Central Coast).
It’s good to be back in a round where I’m confident about a couple of plays, think Central Coast and Adelaide should both be quite a bit shorter, Western Sydney also looks to be a bit of value. The other 2 games the market looks to be spot on and I won’t be touching those matches, but I’ll let you know what I think about them.
Interestingly, in a round with so many short priced favourites, every one of them is playing at home, which is a good sign if you’re normally a little hesitant about diving into red figures for A League matches.
Best of luck with any bets you have this weekend, let’s hope we can get a good result out of the weekend.
Best Value:
Central Coast at $1.88 with Tatts.
Second Best Value
Adelaide at $1.80 with Sportsbet.
Brisbane v Wellington
Friday 24 January 7:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
We kick off the round with league leaders Brisbane hosting the up and coming Wellington. Wellington continued their winning ways last week by dismantling Melbourne Victory in an uber impressive performance. While Melbourne Victory aren’t known for their defensive abilities, any team that can manage to score 5 goals against them is doing something right. They now have won 4 of the last 5 games and are by far the most in form club in the league. While Brisbane only managed a draw last Friday against Perth it was a pretty good effort, they went down to 10 men fairly early in the game when Berisha managed to get 2 yellow cards within the first half hour, this also means he misses this match. Speaking of Berisha big news came out during the week that at the end of the season he’ll be leaving Brisbane to join Melbourne Victory, be interesting to see if this has any impact on a team that has relied on him up front for a while. Brisbane have had a bit of an advantage over Wellington lately winning their last 4 matches against each, and the fact this match is up in Brisbane is a massive plus for them. Brisbane haven’t won a game in the last 2 rounds and will be desperate to get another win under the belt to make sure they stay at the top of the ladder. I have the home team pretty short, like most favourites this round, and have them right down at $1.53. Unfortunately the market see’s the game exactly the same as me, and every option is slightly less than what I have them at. For me to be interested I’d need to be getting a minimum of one of the following, $1.70 Brisbane, $5.25 Draw or $8.00 Wellington, and I can’t see bookies getting out to that for any of them. Sit and watch Friday night.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 4
Draw 1
Wellington 0
Rated Prices:
Brisbane $1.53
Draw $4.76
Wellington $7.30
Market:
Brisbane $1.50 Tatts, Sportingbet
Draw $4.50 Sportsbet
Wellington $7.00 Sportsbet
Best Value: Nothing.
Adelaide v Melbourne Heart
Saturday 25 January 5:00pm (local) – Coopers Stadium
Adelaide play host to Melbourne Heart on Saturday in what looks another lopsided match. Adelaide are finally hitting the form that everybody knows they are capable of after beating the top 2 teams the last 2 weeks. Melbourne Heart got their long awaited maiden win for the season last week as they beat up Newcastle 3-1. I’m pretty keen to be on Adelaide in this, Melbourne Heart have only won 1 of their last 23 matches on the road, clearly the worst record in the league. Adelaide are hitting their straps, melding together and doing everything right, finally, can see them finishing the year out very strongly. Think the $1.80 the Sportingbet are serving up is very generous and I’m keen to get my share of those odds.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 3
Draw 1
Melbourne Heart 1
Rated Prices:
Adelaide $1.63
Draw $4.49
Melbourne Heart $6.08
Market:
Adelaide $1.80 Sportsbet
Draw $3.65 Tatts, TAB
Melbourne Heart $4.65 Luxbet, Sportingbet
Best Value: Adelaide at $1.80 with Sportsbet.
Central Coast v Newcastle
Saturday 25 January 7:30pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium
Another Central Coast match, I don’t want to be on them every week, it just seems to happen. Anyway, they host Newcastle this week at Bluetongue. The visitors haven’t won a game since before Christmas, and I doubt anything will change after Saturday. Central Coast has been pretty good at home all season with only losing the 1 match at Bluetongue stadium. The recent form between these two teams has been really tight, 3 draws and a game a piece from their last 5 encounters, but it looks a little more one sided this time around. Central Coast’s attacking, without Flores or McGlinchey, is little to be desired, but I’m sure they’ll find other options, they’ll need to hold onto their finals position for the rest of the season. I shouldn’t be surprised that Tatts are offering $1.88 for Central Coast, they are nearly top price about the team every week, even if you don’t like them, that has to be overs considering every other bookie has them shorter, so got to snap up that price. I actually have them rated right down on $1.57, so I think it is a massive price and will be all over it.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 1
Draw 3
Newcastle 1
Rated Prices:
Central Coast $1.57
Draw $4.65
Newcastle $6.72
Market:
Central Coast $1.88 Tatts
Draw $3.55 Tatts
Newcastle $4.50 TAB, Sportsbet
Best Value: Central Coast at $1.88 with Tatts.
Melbourne Victory v Sydney
Sunday 26 January 5:00pm (local) – Etihad Stadium
This Sunday is Australia Day, for some it means the Hottest 100, others a public holiday, beers and a BBQ, but for A League fans it means it’s time for the Big Blue, one of, if not the biggest match of the year. If Melbourne Victory hadn’t played last week and got smashed by Wellington I’m sure I would be, and everyone else would be all over the home team, but after that everyone is a little hesitant. Sydney, although not smashed like Melbourne Victory was last week, went down 1-0 to Central Coast when they were at home, so that wasn’t ideal. Sydney have been what can only be described as rubbish on the road this, they’ve only managed to take away 4 points from their 8 games on the road, they are just a different team outside of Sydney. The question on everyone’s lips is what type of action Rogic will see for the home team, you’d imagine he’d come on as a direct replacement for Finkler with around 25 minutes remaining. The kid is a star and he is definitely what Melbourne Victory need in that creative position, it was brilliant work from Melbourne Victory to get him back playing in the A League. News that Berisha will be joining Melbourne Victory next season came out during the week and that’s sure to spur them on further. As we get to the prices and suggested plays this is where it gets difficult, the market sees the prices basically exactly the same as I see them, leaving us very little room to have an interest. While I’m very keen on Melbourne Victory’s chance, I’m not as keen on their price. The price available for Sydney is the slightest bit of overs, but nowhere near enough to suck me in. I’d need $1.80 for Melbourne Victory or $6.40 for Sydney to have a financial interest in this match.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 2
Draw 1
Sydney 2
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Victory $1.65
Draw $4.52
Sydney $5.77
Market:
Melbourne Victory $1.63 TAB
Draw $3.90 Luxbet
Sydney $6.00 Sportsbet
Best Value: Nothing.
Western Sydney v Perth
Sunday 26 January 7:00pm (local) – Pirtek Stadium
We finish the weekend with a relatively late game for a Sunday afternoon/evening, most likely with Monday being a public holiday, the reining premiers play host to Perth. While Perth did annoy me last week as they were my only selection (and at a massive $4.33) and could only come away with 1 point, it was still a decent performance as they were up against the table leaders in Brisbane. While Western Sydney is a classy outfit, they’ve lost their last 2 matches and supporters might not be the happiest at the moment. In their advantage they are heading back to home this week where they have performed significantly better this season. Also Perth have struggled to travel this season so it gives the home side every chance to get another 3 points this week and tighten their grip on holding onto a home final at the end of the season. Western Sydney will definitely miss Juric this week, he looks a star of the future, and already right up in the ranks of the A League, if he was playing I was be super keen on the home side, him out softens my opinion of them. That being said I’m still happy to take the $1.60 on offer from TAB. It’s not the best value of the weekend, but there is still a margin there in our favour. Perth will struggle to score in this match so Western Sydney just need to find the back of the net once to get the 3 points. They’ll have their 12th man (the RBB) backing them up the whole time too.
Last 3 games:
Western Sydney 2
Draw 1
Perth 0
Rated Prices:
Western Sydney $1.49
Draw $5.17
Perth $7.41
Market:
Western Sydney $1.60 TAB
Draw $4.00 Sportsbet
Perth $6.25 Tatts
Best Value: Minimal value Western Sydney at $1.60 with TAB.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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