Even though it was a losing weekend, pretty happy with last week’s results. If Central Coast got the job done, like they should of done, with McBreen missing a penalty, it would have been a good weekend.

Perth got the job done easy against Melbourne Heart and the other 3 plays were all $2.85+ so knew they weren’t all going to get up, just on the wrong side of things, except for the Melbourne Victory/Western Sydney, where Melbourne Victory dominated for most of the match and it showed on the score board.

Other than the Melbourne Victory/Western Sydney game, the only other result that shocked me, and I assume everyone else was Brisbane going down to Adelaide. Luckily the market was the same as my pricings so didn’t dive into the shorts, but I did think they were a ligament sub $1.50 chance.

Western Sydney were nearly as short against Sydney but they didn’t let backers down by getting the job done, not as easy as you’d like when taking such shorts but job done none the less.

We have a good round coming up this weekend for viewing, I don’t have 1 team rated odds on, which I thought would mean there will be some decent value around. 2 of the games I couldn’t split the teams and have them rated exactly the same. There looks to be only one standard market bet I’m interest in this round, and it’s a big underdog. There’s a couple of others that do have some minimal value, so I’ll ID that as well as anything else that jumps out at me.

Best Value

Perth at $4.33 with Betstar

Melbourne Heart v Newcastle

Friday 17 January 7:30pm (local) – AAMI Park

Melbourne Heart, still longing for that first win head back home this week and the task will be a bit easier than last week when they went to Perth who put on a display for the travelling team, sending them home after losing 3-0. Newcastle put up a game performance against Melbourne Victory to come away with a draw, I thought they might even do a little better than that, but that was a fair result. When I priced up this market I couldn’t split the 2 teams and rated them at $2.75, the bookies thought the same and have both at $2.70 (difference because I rate off a 100% market). This makes this an extremely hard match to bet on, all 3 options are the tiniest bit of unders. If I had to have a bet on the match I’d probably go with under 2.5 goals, over the last 5 rounds (10 matches) these teams have played, 7 of the games have had 2 or less goals.

Last 5 games:
Melbourne Heart       1
Draw                           1
Newcastle                  3

Rated Prices:
Melbourne Heart      $2.75
Draw                           $3.67
Newcastle                 $2.75

Market:
Melbourne Heart      $2.70 Sportingbet
Draw                           $3.40 TAB, Sportsbet
Newcastle                  $2.70 Sportsbet

Best Value: Nothing.

Perth v Brisbane

Friday 17 January 6:45pm (local) – NIB Stadium

The second match of the Friday night double header and we head over to Perth to see them host the top of the table Brisbane. You wonder how Brisbane come of that performance of the year against Melbourne Victory to then lose last week to Adelaide, even though we do know Adelaide can turn it on at times. They have clearly been the team to beat all season and that will be no difference on Friday. Perth haven’t been too shabby of late either though, pumping Melbourne Heart last week 3-0 and getting it done against Newcastle on the road the week before. Travelling across to the west hasn’t been easy for teams this season, Perth have won 4 of their home games and had 2 draws, only losing 1 game from their 7 matches at NIB Stadium. I have no doubt that Brisbane are the team to beat and actually have them rated as the shortest price favourite of the week at $2.12. You know there is a but though, but, the best price you can get from any bookie is a measly $1.90, this has to be unders off their performance last week and Perth’s efforts so far this season at home. The $4.33 available at Betstar, clearly better than anybody else, looks a good price to me, and the only standard market bet that interest me this round. Now remember, I’ve rated them $3.77, so that means I only think they will win 1 in 3.77 games, but with the books paying $4+ they have to be a bet at the price.

Last 5 games
Perth                           3
Draw                           0
Brisbane                     2

Rated Prices 
Perth                           $3.77
Draw                           $3.80
Brisbane                      $2.12

Market    
Perth                           $4.33 Betstar
Draw                           $3.60 Sportsbet
Brisbane                      $1.90 TAB

Best Value: Perth at $4.33 with Betstar

Wellington v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 18 January 7:30pm (local) – Westpac Stadium

Melbourne Victory gets on the plane to New Zealand this weekend. They are coming off a quick back-up after their super impressive win against Western Sydney on Saturday and will be confident they can put together back to back wins as they try and lock themselves into that third position on the ladder. Wellington have been in outstanding form, after struggling early in the season they have won 3 and drawn 1 of their past 4, as good as anyone in the league at the moment. The market has this match very tight, only $0.35 between them, but I think there should be a bigger gap between the two. I have Wellington right down at $2.37 and Melbourne Victory out at $3.23. While Wellington are value, it is to a very minimum, and hard to get too enthused. Another point of note is that Melbourne Victory have had the wood on Wellington for a long time, winning the last 7 fixtures between these sides. In the last 14 games between them Wellington have only won 1, but they are in good form and get every chance at home this week. This makes me pretty hesitant go near Wellington. Watch only.

Last 5 games:
Wellington                  0
Draw                           0
Melbourne Victory      5

Rated Prices:
Wellington                  $2.37
Draw                           $3.72
Melbourne Victory      $3.23

Market:
Wellington                  $2.50 TAB
Draw                           $3.45 Tatts
Melbourne Victory      $2.85 Luxbet

Best Value: Nothing.

Sydney v Central Coast

Saturday 18 January 7:45pm (local) – Allianz Stadium

Saturday night is an all NSW affair with Sydney hosting Central Coast. Both teams were respectable last week without winning. Central Coast managed a draw, and could of easily won if they converted a penalty, when they went to Wellington as an outsider, and Sydney went down 1-0 to Western Sydney, they were a big underdog on that day and it was a fair effort. This match couldn’t be harder to split, the last 5 matches between these teams have been split evenly, and I have both teams rated exactly the same ($2.75). The market is very similar again, not allowing us to really get on. Bookies think Sydney should be a slight favourite, so they have Central Coast as slight overs in my opinion, so if you are desperate for a bet they are probably the way to go. Even the under/overs is hard, over the last 5 rounds these teams have played 5 games that have gone over 2.5 goals and 5 that have gone under 2.5 goals. Really suggest this is a watch match only.

Last 5 games:
Sydney                        2
Draw                           1
Central Coast             2

Rated Prices:
Sydney                         $2.75
Draw                           $3.67
Central Coast              $2.75

Market:
Sydney                         $2.40 Tatts, TAB, Betstar
Draw                           $3.40 Most Bookmakers
Central Coast              $2.90 Sportingbet, Luxbet

Best Value: Nothing.

Adelaide v Western Sydney

Sunday 19 January 4:30pm (local) – Coopers Stadium

We round out the weekend with another hard match to squeeze value out of. A few weeks ago we would have been all over Western Sydney but Adelaide are just starting to put it all together now and make this a little tighter. No doubt Western Sydney should be favourite, and the market is even giving us a tiny bit of value there, but at home Adelaide could make it very interesting. Western Sydney only played on Tuesday and they received a good beating from Melbourne Victory, where as Adelaide have had 3 more days to rest and also coming off a very impressive win in Brisbane. These two have only faced each other 4 times but Western Sydney has managed to take the 3 points away from 75% of those games. Again Western Sydney is a little bit of value, but not enough for me to dive in. Interestingly games between these 2 teams has averaged 4.25 goals, granted off a small sample of 4 games, but this is bound to be entertaining and over 2.5 goals looks the play if you’re trying to nurse a hangover on Sunday by making a few extra dollars.

Last 4 games:
Adelaide                     1
Draw                           0
Western Sydney        3

Rated Prices:
Adelaide                      $3.36
Draw                           $3.89
Western Sydney          $2.24

Market:
Adelaide                      $3.20 Betstar, Sportsbet
Draw                           $3.40 TAB, Sportingbet
Western Sydney          $2.30 Tatts, Sportingbet

Best Value: Nothing.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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