Coming off another tough week of A League, without a single home team winning all round, something that doesn’t happen every week.
Glad we left the Western Sydney/Wellington and Adelaide/Sydney games alone, both turning up unexpected results. Western Sydney look to be struggling a little after looking the best team in the league in the early parts of the season, after their 3-1 loss to Wellington.
One of the only things that did go as expected was that there would be plenty of goals at Adelaide and they clearly covered the overs with the game finishing 2-2.
I was at the Melbourne Victory/Brisbane game, and can pretty safely say that the performance Brisbane put on (including all 3 goals) were as good as I’ve seen a team play this season, if not over the past couple of years, they were outstanding and would of beat any team they came up against that night.
The other major surprise of the round would have to be Melbourne Heart coming away with a point after their trip to Central Coast, could the new manager be turning this team around, they travel to Perth this week and while not ideal, is an easier task than last round so maybe they can get that elusive win they’ve been looking for.
Speaking of Perth, they did very well by heading to Newcastle and winning 1-0 last eek, they went into that game a massive underdog.
Our attention now turns to Round 14, and we also get a bonus match on Tuesday, Melbourne Victory/Western Sydney, a replay of the game that caused such controversy only a couple of weeks ago. This match has been brought forward from Round 19 due to scheduling issues.
Best Value: Central Coast at $3.50 with Sportingbet.
Second Best Value: Newcastle at $2.85 with TAB.
Newcastle v Melbourne Victory
Friday 10 January 7:30pm (local) – Hunter Stadium
We kick off Round 14 with a double header on Friday night. Melbourne Victory, coming off a demoralising loss to Brisbane, head to Newcastle who are also not in the best of form either, losing last week to Perth. Melbourne Victory have really struggled on the road all season, they have only managed to win 1 game of their 6 road matches and that one was against Melbourne Heart, so doesn’t really count anyway. They need to start scratching up some road wins if they want to get that home final that I’m sure they’ll be fighting hard for. After Newcastle’s whirlwind start to the season they are now having the fall from grace that many expected, and are now holding onto a finals position by the skin of their teeth, they can’t afford to lose any home games from now on. They market has this game priced as though it should be very close, with Melbourne Victory slight favourites, but I actually see the game the other way around and think that Newcastle should be clearly shorter with the home ground advantage. They look very good value to me, should definitely be shorter than the $2.85 on offer at TAB.
Last 5 games
Newcastle 3
Draw 0
Melbourne Victory 2
Rated Prices
Newcastle $2.23
Draw $3.84
Melbourne Victory $3.44
Market
Newcastle $2.85 TAB
Draw $3.40 TAB, Tatts
Melbourne Victory $2.55 Sportingbet
Best Value: Newcastle at $2.85 with TAB.
Perth v Melbourne Heart
Friday 10 January 6:45pm (local) – NIB Stadium
The second match of the Friday night double header see’s another Melbourne team on the road, this time it’s Melbourne Heart who are heading to Perth With both teams coming off good performances they’ll each fancy their chances in this fixture. Perth are coming off an unexpected victory over Newcastle on the road, if they can re-produce that form this week, back at home, they should prove far too good. Melbourne Heart came away with a gritty draw against Central Coast last week, a performance many didn’t think this team was capable of. It was their first game under their new (old) manager Van’t Schip, hopefully this is a positive sign for this club, they are now setting the records that no teams wants to do by having the longest streak without winning a game. I’m pretty confident that Perth should be able to get the job done on Saturday, they have been a mid table team all season, beating teams lower than them and losing to teams higher than them (usually), and Melbourne Heart are definitely lower than them. An interesting stat is that the last 5 times these teams have met the home team has come away with the 3 points, another thing in Perth’s favour. Tatts are currently offering $2.10, I was pretty sure they should be odds on, and some bookies do have them in red figures (odds on). Very happy to take that price from Tatts.
Last 5 games
Perth 3
Draw 0
Melbourne Heart 2
Rated Prices
Perth $1.81
Draw $3.98
Melbourne Heart $5.12
Market
Perth $2.10 Tatts
Draw $3.40 Sportsbet, Sportingbet
Melbourne Heart $4.00 Sportingbet
Best Value: Perth at $2.10 with Tatts.
Brisbane v Adelaide
Saturday 11 January 4:30pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
Saturday is a day for short price favourites, we have 2 games with very short home favourites in both. Firstly we have a white hot Brisbane hosting Adelaide. It’s hard to not gush over Brisbane’s performance last week against Melbourne Victory, they were, quite honestly, outstanding. All 3 goals scored were top notch and as good as you see in the A League, long sequences of consecutive passes, silky touches and clean finishes to top them off. While their rankings have been climbing all season, that performance shot them to the top of the rankings. I honestly expected Adelaide to get the job done last week against Sydney, and they were leading in the last 10 minutes before letting in a goal to only come away with a draw. I shouldn’t be surprised, Adelaide have been doing this to me all season. The market looks smack bang on here so I can’t be tempted into a play, I have rated Brisbane at $1.46 and the best on offer is $1.45, if they were to drift to $1.60 I would be on, but doubt bookies will turn them out after last weeks performance.
Last 5 games
Brisbane 4
Draw 0
Adelaide 1
Rated Prices
Brisbane $1.46
Draw $5.21
Adelaide $8.00
Market
Brisbane $1.45 TAB
Draw $4.60 Betstar, Tatts
Adelaide $8.20 Betstar
Best Value: Nothing.
Western Sydney v Sydney
Saturday 11 January 7:45pm (local) – Pirtek Park
Second game Saturday night and we have Western Sydney coming up nearly as short as Brisbane did in the earlier game. Western Sydney have been very good at home this season, only losing one game (last week), their crowd support at Parramatta is basically a 12th player for them. On the flip side Sydney have been poor when they have had to travel, only clocking up the 1 win this season, only 4 since the start of last season. After Western Sydney’s shock loss last week at home to Wellington they’ll be out for revenge and unfortunately for Sydney they are the opponents that they face up with. Gameiro managed a goal late in the game last week to secure Sydney 1 point from their trip to Adelaide, which looking back was a pretty good performance. 1 of the goals they let in was from the penalty spot, if you take that away they would of collected all the points. Similar to Brisbane, Western Sydney should just get the job done here and win, Sydney aren’t the toughest opponent and Western Sydney can be deadly coming off a loss. Once again, just like Brisbane, the market see’s the match the exact same as I see it, only being $0.02 from my rated price to the best market price available for Western Sydney, and the other two options being unders. Unfortunately another match I’ll be leaving alone.
Last 4 games
Western Sydney 1
Draw 1
Sydney 2
Rated Prices
Western Sydney $1.51
Draw $4.76
Sydney $7.90
Market
Western Sydney $1.53 Tatts
Draw $4.10 Betstar
Sydney $6.50 TAB, Betstar
Best Value: Nothing.
Wellington v Central Coast
Sunday 12 January 7:00pm (local) – Westpac Stadium
We technically finish Round 14 here, but we do have another match on Tuesday that has been brought forward from Round 19. Central Coast has to get on the plane this week and head across the ditch to face Wellington at home. Central Coast have been a little disappointing of late only winning 1 out of their last 4 matches. Despite this they are still in 3rd position on the ladder, although only 4 points above Perth who are currently out of a finals place. They need to get their record back on track and they have struggled all season when away, they will be endeavouring to change that this week. Wellington has been in sparkling form, winning their last 3 matches, including a super impressive 3-1 over Western Sydney when on the road last week, they’ll be confident they can continue their winning streak. They also have player of the moment in Huysegems, who has scored 4 goals in his last 3 matches, including a double last week, quite outstanding. Central Coast has also won 8 of the last 9 times these teams have met and the other was a draw, a pretty daunting record for Wellington to be facing, and attempting to overcome. I have the teams rated price very similar here, think Central Coast should be slight favourites, but have them within $0.20 of Wellington. The market on the other hand has the odds heavily in Wellington’s favour. I’m very keen on Central Coast at $3.50 with Sportingbet, that’s a great price, another bookie has them at $3.35 then the next biggest price is $3.20, TAB have them right down at $2.75. If nothing else you are surely going to beat their starting price by taking $3.50, they don’t deserve to be that long.
Last 5 games
Wellington 0
Draw 1
Central Coast 4
Rated Prices
Wellington $2.88
Draw $3.72
Central Coast $2.61
Market
Wellington $2.35 TAB
Draw $3.40 Sportingbet, TAB
Central Coast $3.50 Sportingbet
Best Value: Central Coast at $3.50 with Sportingbet.
Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney
Tuesday 14 January 7:30pm (local) – AAMI Park
The A League doesn’t finish on the weekend, we have the heavyweight fight on Tuesday to tide us through to next weekend. You might wonder why this fixture is on as these teams only played each other a couple of weeks ago, but this match has been brought forward from Round 19 due to scheduling issues. It was only a couple of weeks ago that these two teams faced off at AAMI Park in a 1-1 draw that brought the biggest A League headlines to the newspapers this season for the pre-game “violence”. This incident, which can hardly be blamed on the clubs, looks like it will hurt them both with talks of the clubs most likely going to lose points. It’s sure to be another fiery encounter this time around with both of these clubs having massive followings. Enough of the politics though, this should be a cracking game, two of the most exciting teams in the league when they are on song. They are both coming off very disappointing games from Round 13 and will be desperate to hold their positions at the top end of the table. Melbourne Victory are definitely a lot better side at home and that keeps them in this match, if they were away it would have been very tough for them. At the time of writing neither team has played their Round 14 game, but Melbourne Victory probably get the slight advantage getting an extra days break, Western Sydney will have only played a match 3 days before, a very quick backup. Although Western Sydney do have a lot easier fixture on the weekend, they are $1.53 favourites against Sydney. I have Western Sydney rated as a clear $2.40 fav and they should make it pretty hard for Melbourne Victory to get much out of this game. The market is finding it hard to split these 2 with only $0.15 between them, that says to me that Western Sydney are a good price at $2.75 with Betstar, this looks clear overs as they should be favourite.
Last 5 games
Melbourne Victory 1
Draw 1
Western Sydney 3
Rated Prices
Melbourne Victory $3.18
Draw $3.73
Western Sydney $2.40
Market
Melbourne Victory $2.60 Betstar, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes
Draw $3.40 TAB, Sportingbet
Western Sydney $2.75 Betstar
Best Value: Western Sydney at $2.75 with Betstar
*Prices correct at time of writing.
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All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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