Interesting round last week with Melbourne Victory clawing back a draw in the last minute of injury time with an amazing free kick from Finkler, putting further question to how much longer they can continue to start this star on the bench. Central Coast did a similar feat after leading early on, and then giving away a very late penalty to Perth to tie the game, thankfully for Central Coast (and me), McGlinchy managed to bury a goal late in injury to regain the lead.

They were some of the impressive performances of the round, now at the very opposite end of the spectrum is Melbourne Heart. This was their chance to scratch up that elusive win that must seem a lifetime ago since their last for fans. Coming up against Wellington, at home, if they can’t win (or even draw) that, I don’t know how they are going to win a game. It was no surprise that their manager Aloisi, didn’t last long after that match, fans had been demanding his departure for weeks, and now they have gone back to the services of their previous manager Van’t Schip to try and turn things around. He definitely has his work cut out for him if he’s to get anything out of this season other than the wooden spoon.

Adelaide did as most expected by pulling out another much needed win, while not fully convincing, they got the job done. And Brisbane once again proved why they are being touted as premier contenders for this season with their demolition of Sydney, thumping them 5-2 (granted 2 of the goals were from the penalty spot).

Now we’re almost halfway through the season and it appears that the bookies rankings for teams are very similar to mine (not massively surprising), with my rated prices coming up extremely close to market prices these days. Earlier in the season, based on the expected value I’m getting, I would have only selected Central Coast as a play this round, but now with the market so similar I have to take matches where the expected value is still there, but it’s less.

There are 2 games this week where there is basically zero value, so will be leaving those game alone, but there’s still 3 games where I think there is value to be had. Central Coast does look the value of the round and I’m definitely keen on them at home against Melbourne Heart. Interestingly of note is that Tatts seem to be a higher price for Central Coast most weeks, must have their rating for them lower than most. Newcastle and Melbourne Victory are the other 2 teams that look to be a good price this round, I’m actually quite shocked Melbourne Victory are a longer price this week than they were against Western Sydney last week, I still have Western Sydney rated higher than Brisbane.

I also have a little write up that I’ll be posting over the weekend (probably Sunday) in regards to how I see value and why I make the selections that I do if that interest you at all you might want to give it a look.

Good luck with all your bets this week, I can’t wait till next weekend when we get back to a normal schedule with matches actually on the weekend and not all through the week.

@AL_TheProfits

Western Sydney v Wellington

Wednesday 1 January 7:00pm (local) – Pirtek Stadium

We finished 2013 with a “short but sweet” selection in Central Coast, and we kick off 2014 with a very short selection too. Only issue is that this time we aren’t getting any value about the home team. Western Sydney host Wellington in what looks to be pretty much a one act affair, you’d think the home side would just get the job done at Parramatta. They are yet to lose a home game this season and are clearly the best side currently in the league. Wellington, while going well lately, winning their first 2 games of the year in the last 2 weeks (one of which against the very a very average Melbourne Heart side), should be outclassed here. You’d have to say Western Sydney only danger is that they’re playing off a quick backup after drawing with Melbourne Victory on Saturday. In that game they had the game all wrapped up but then Finkler scored a miracle goal from a free kick for Melbourne Victory to tie it up in the last minute of injury time and Western Sydney had to leave Melbourne with only a point. Unfortunately with the price the bookies are offering it doesn’t give us a chance to get on everything, I’d need at least $1.57 to back Western Sydney, $5.70 for the draw, or $10.00 for Wellington to be willing to lay down my cash, and I can’t imagine any of those will drift to that price. The market has it spot on in this one.

Last 5 games 
Western Sydney         2
Draw                           2
Wellington                  1

Rated Prices
Western Sydney         $1.44
Draw                           $5.17
Wellington                  $8.80

Market     
Western Sydney         $1.47 Tatts
Draw                           $4.35 TAB
Wellington                  $8.50 Sportsbet

Best Value: Nothing.

Adelaide v Sydney

Friday 3 January 7:00pm (local) – Coopers Stadium

We go into the second game of the round and unfortunately it’s another no-play game for me (don’t worry, the next 3 games all are). Adelaide host Sydney and the hosts looked to be starting to put together what everyone knows they are capable of. Sydney continue to perform pretty much as expected, they did get smashed 5-2 last week by an impressive Brisbane, although 2 of Brisbane’s goals were penalties so not quite as bad as the score board suggested. It’s hard to get excited about this game, I expect Adelaide to win (rated them $1.88) but the market isn’t really giving us much of an option to bet them, or even oppose them and go Sydney. I’d want $2.05 for Adelaide before I’d back them and $5.00 for Sydney, neither of which looks likely to get to. Over2.5 goals looks a good option if you do want a bet while you’re watching the game at the pub Friday night, the last 9 times these teams have met 8 of the games there has been 3+ goals, and the other game there was 2, based on this you’d have to assume goals will be scored, and plenty of them.

Last 5 games 
Adelaide                      2
Draw                           1
Sydney                        2

Rated Prices 
Adelaide                      $1.88
Draw                           $3.97
Sydney                        $4.62

Market  
Adelaide                      $1.95 Sportingbet
Draw                           $3.50 TAB, Sportingbet
Sydney                        $4.00 Tatts

Best Value: Nothing.

Newcastle v Perth

Saturday 4 January 5:30pm (local) – Hunter Stadium

The Saturday double header kicks off with Newcastle hosting Perth and finally we get a match that I’m keen to get involved in. I love betting on Perth matches, whether I’m backing them, or their opponent, I think they are probably the most consistent team in the league, the results from their matches rarely surprise. They are yet to scratch up a win on the road this season and I would be shocked if they could do so this week. Newcastle have been in good form this season and I keep going back to that game a fortnight ago where they bet Brisbane 2-0 in Brisbane, if they bring that performance to the pitch they’ll beat any side. One thing that is discouraging is Newcastle’s H2H record against Perth. Perth has won 4 of the last 5 meetings, and even more worrying is that Newcastle hasn’t won 1 of these fixtures since November 2011. They get every chance to break that hoodoo this round and “should” get the job done. While they aren’t super value, the $1.85 on offer from TAB is enough to suck me in to backing the home team.

Last 5 games
Newcastle    0
Draw            1
Perth            4

Rated Prices:
Newcastle    $1.70
Draw            $4.45
Perth            $5.32

Market   
Newcastle    $1.85 TAB
Draw            $3.65 Sportingbet
Perth            $4.50 Tatts, SPortsbet

Best Value: Minimal value Newcastle at $1.85 with TAB.

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane

Saturday 4 January 7:45pm (local) – AAMI Park

The highlight game of the round is perfectly positioned on Saturday night at AAMI Park. With only 1 point separating 3rd to 6th on the ladder, Melbourne Victory need to get a minimum of a draw out of this match, but I think they can take all 3 points. I’m pretty shocked that Melbourne Victory are a bigger price this week than they were against Western Sydney last week, I know Brisbane are on the top of the ladder, but I still class Western Sydney as the best team in the league. Finally Muscut (and Melbourne Victory) are starting their star attacking midfielder Finkler. Fans have been demanding it all season and they are a much better side when he is on the pitch. There’s no doubt Brisbane are a top side and their 5-2 demolition of Sydney last week proved just that, at their best they are very hard to beat, and their road record is by far the best in the league. Melbourne Victory will be extremely confident having beaten Brisbane earlier this season when on the road and I’m sure they will be intending on sending Brisbane back north with zero points. Similar to Newcastle earlier on Saturday, Melbourne Victory is slight value at $2.60, I wouldn’t be interested in taking any shorter but at that mark they are just enough value to tempt me in.

Last 5 games   
Melbourne Victory    1
Draw            2
Brisbane        2

Rated Prices
Melbourne Victory    $2.41
Draw            $3.74
Brisbane        $3.15

Market
Melbourne Victory    $2.60 Tatts, Ladbrokes, Betstar
Draw            $3.40 Sportingbet, TAB
Brisbane        $2.70 Sportsbet

Best Value: Minimal value Melbourne Victory at $2.60 with Tatts/Ladbrokes/Betstar.

Central Coast v Melbourne Heart

Sunday 5 January 5:00pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium

Finally, it’s taken to the last game of the round but I get a match where I think there is some really good value available. Central Coast, I’m sure I still rate them higher than most, and especially higher than Tatts who continually have the top price about them each week. Their ability compared to Melbourne Heart is worlds apart. Melbourne Heart’s loss last week to Wellington when at home made me lose any faith that I had in them. That was their chance to get a win, you’re not going to get a better chance throughout the season, and they couldn’t manage a draw. They had plenty of chances and couldn’t convert, in saying that Wellington also had a plethora of shots, and only converted 1 of them. Central Coast have only lost 2 games at Bluetongue Stadium since the start of last season, the best home record over the past 2 seasons. News coming out that Central Coast may be getting back their star that the lost last season, Rogic, on a loan deal will bring them greater confidence to make sure they win the games that they should be. Melbourne Heart’s glimmer of hope is that Aloisi has been given the boot as manager (not surprising) and their “new” manager Van’t Schip, who used to manage the club, comes in hoping to change something within the club for the positive. In the last 10 times these teams have met, Central Coast have taken 3 points away from 7 of those games, Melbourne Heart only taking the honors once. The home side should really take this game out easily, and the $1.60 Tatts have on offer is rather generous in my opinion, other bookies have them closer to my rated price.

Last 5 games
Central Coast        3
Draw            1
Melbourne Heart    1

Rated Prices
Central Coast        $1.45
Draw            $5.34
Melbourne Heart    $8.22

Market
Central Coast        $1.60 Tatts
Draw            $4.00 TAB, Sportingbet
Melbourne Heart    $6.50 TAB

Best Value: Central Coast at $1.60 with Tatts.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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