Confidence is high coming of a good week, going 2-1, and with the 2 non-play games going they way they were expected to, too bad the prices weren’t a little better to be able to make a play at Melbourne Victory and/or Brisbane.

I swear Adelaide is taking years off my life, I tip them up as good value nearly every week, the final week I don’t and of course they absolutely dominate Central Coast in an impressive performance. Now it will just be a matter of if that is a turning point for them and they can continue with the form that we know they are capable of, or if they’ll slip back into their lack luster performances from earlier this season.

We were probably lucky to come away with the chocolates in the Sydney game with Melbourne Heart’s star signing Kewell, having only his second game for the season, slicing a penalty well wide of the target when he was sent to the spot early in the second half. Mifsud scored not long after cutting the score back to 2-1 but that wasn’t enough to stop Sydney from taking away all 3 points away from the fixture.

We go into round 11 with 2 clear cut value picks, then there is a couple of matches that represent a little bit of value, but not the kind of edge that I usually like when attacking a game, and then another 2 games where the market looks to be spot on and I’ll just be sitting back and watching.

Good luck to everyone that’s having a bet over this extended round.

Best Value: Central Coast at $1.73 with Sportingbet

Central Coast v Wellington

Thursday 19 December 7:30pm (local) – North Sydney Oval

We get a bonus game this weekend with this Round 6 game being postponed to now due to the amount of international duties that there was on the original scheduled date. I say it week in week out, even though Wellington are looking slightly better in recent weeks, they are still winless this season and have only won 2 games while on the road over the past 2 seasons. Central Coast home record this season hasn’t been great, but it’s still respectable, although this game isn’t really a “home” game for them being played at North Sydney Oval, Wellington still have to fly to Australia so it’s a disadvantage to them. You have to go back to August 2010 to the last time Wellington got the better of Central Coast, I find it hard to think that record won’t continue on here. There are only 2 games this weekend that I think represent great value and this is one of them. I have rated Central Coast at the very short price of $1.42, and our good friends at Sportingbet are allowing us on at $1.73, while this might be a skinny price for some to back, it definitely represents value and looks the best bet of the weekend.

Last 5 games 
Central Coast             4
Draw                           1
Wellington                  0

Rated Prices
Central Coast             $1.42
Draw                           $5.21
Wellington                  $9.56

Market     
Central Coast             $1.73 Sportingbet
Draw                           $3.75 Sportingbet, Sportsbet
Wellington                  $5.50 Sportsbet

Best Value: Central Coast at $1.73 with Sportingbet.

Brisbane v Newcastle

Friday 20 December 7:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium

We’re off to Brisbane on Friday night for a match up between 2 of the form teams of the A League after the first 10 rounds. Although with both teams having separate targets, Newcastle looking to secure there selves a finals birth while Brisbane now has their eyes on silverware at the end of the season. Brisbane still haven’t dropped a single point when playing at home this season and they should have no trouble continuing that this round. Newcastle were respectable only going down to Western Sydney 1-0 last week, but even though it wasn’t a convincing win on the scoreboard for Western Sydney, Newcastle didn’t really generate many chances throughout the game and never looked a chance, although most of their form prior to last week has been good though. Brisbane is currently on a 4 game win streak and every team is dreading heading to Brisbane this season as they have put in very few poor performances this season, especially when at home. I have now doubt Brisbane will be far too good for Newcastle here and have them rated right down at $1.51, unfortunately the best price that any of the bookies is offering is $1.53, and that’s not enough of an edge to entice me in. If the favourites happened to drift out to $1.65+ then I’d be having a bet but at the current prices it’s a sit and watch game for me.

Last 5 games
Brisbane                     2
Draw                           1
Newcastle                   2

Rated Prices
Brisbane                     $1.51
Draw                           $4.93
Newcastle                   $7.33

Market   
Brisbane                     $1.53 TAB
Draw                           $4.20 Betstar
Newcastle                   $7.30 Betstar

Best Value: Nothing.

Melbourne Heart v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 21 December 7:45pm (local) – AAMI Park

Our sole Saturday match is one of the highlight fixtures of the season, the Melbourne Derby, and being at AAMI Park the place will be pumping, and tempers will be flying no doubt. Melbourne Victory has probably been slightly down on what was expected of them at the start of the season, but they have been solid enough and haven’t had any “really bad” performances so far. Melbourne Heart on the other hand is still yet to produce a win this season, although their form of late has been better, questions are starting to be asked of their manager Aloisi as to when this club will take 3 points out of a game. Melbourne Victory is yet to win an away game this season, although this barely qualifies for an “away” game, the only difference being the number of their fans in crowd. On recent form you’d have to think that Melbourne Victory should be able to get the better of their cross town rivals, but these derby’s can at times throw up crazy results. While I think the $1.95 that’s available for Melbourne Victory is a decent price and worth backing, it’s not such a great price that I’m scrambling to get a bet on. Definitely worth a play if you want a financial interest in the match but there is better value in a couple of other games this weekend.

Last 5 games
Melbourne Heart       1
Draw                         2
Melbourne Victory     2

Rated Prices  
Melbourne Heart       $4.89
Draw                         $4.27
Melbourne Victory     $1.78

Market          
Melbourne Heart       $4.25 Sportingbet
Draw                         $3.65 Sportingbet
Melbourne Victory     $1.95 Sportsbet

Best Value: Minimal value but Melbourne Victory at $1.95 with Sportsbet.

Wellington v Sydney

Sunday 22 December 7:00pm (local) – Westpac Stadium

We head off to New Zealand on Sunday for what should be a very close game. I couldn’t split the 2 teams, Sydney’s away record is very poor, but Wellington’s overall record is poor and they STILL remain winless. Normally I would have had Wellington slightly shorter but with the quick backup from Thursday (even though they played well) I think it evens this game right up. Since Thursday’s fairly impressive performance (1-0 loss to Central Coast), Wellington have been absolutely hammered in the market, dropping about 50c, this looks to be a massive over reaction. Sydney is now getting out to a very good price. When I did the markets on Wednesday and they were $3.25 I already had them as the second best value of the round, now that you can get a huge $4.00 about them, they look like one of the best plays this weekend. Sydney has been in very good form and is just as much in this match as Wellington are.

Last 5 games
Wellington                   2
Draw                           0
Sydney                        3

Rated Prices 
Wellington                   $2.75
Draw                           $3.68
Sydney                        $2.75

Market      
Wellington                  $1.97 Sportingbet
Draw                           $3.70 Sportsbet
Sydney                        $4.00 Betstar, Sportsbet

Best Value: Sydney at $3.25 with Tatts.

Perth v Adelaide

Sunday 22 December 4:00pm (local) – NIB Stadium

Straight after the game in New Zealand we head the other side of Australia to see Perth host the always up and down Adelaide. Adelaide has got me all season, I’ve picked them as underdogs so many times and they kept letting me down, I finally go away from them and they win. And win they did, they couldn’t of been more impressive when they thumped Central Coast 4-0 last week, but the big question is, which team will show up this week. Perth on the other hand usual stay pretty true to form, you know how they are going to play, not many amazing performances and not many terrible ones, just depends if they are good enough on the day. Perth have won 4 of the 6 home games this season, and Adelaide are yet to post an away victory, but again, who knows which team will turn up on Sunday. While the price is not anything to write home about, there is still a bit of value in Perth at $2.27, if they dropped any further I wouldn’t be interested but at that price I am. Similar situation to Melbourne Victory, there’s better value to be had during the round, but still worth a play in my opinion.

Last 5 games
Perth                           0
Draw                           3
Adelaide                      2

Rated Prices 
Perth                           $2.08
Draw                           $3.85
Adelaide                      $3.85

Market     
Perth                           $2.27 Sportingbet
Draw                           $3.40 Most bookmakers
Adelaide                     $3.30 Sportsbet, Luxbet

Best Value: Minimal value but Perth at $2.27 with Sportingbet.

Western Sydney v Central Coast

Monday 23 December 7:00pm (local) – Pirtek Stadium

We finish the round up on Monday (which I love) with another grand final re-match from last season. We seen this fixture earlier in the season and Western Sydney weren’t able to get revenge over the champions only coming away with a draw, after leading the majority of the match they let in a late equaliser. I don’t think anyone will deny that since that point Western Sydney have looked a lot better, and been a lot more consistent than Central Coast. Central Coast also has to deal with the relatively quick backup from their game on Thursday with Wellington where they managed to cling onto a 1-0 victory. Everything points to a Western Sydney win but Central Coast still have the fire power in their team to produce moments of brilliance when it’s called for. I wish Western Sydney were a better price because I really did want to back them, but the market has the game spot on. There is zero value in the favourites, in Central Coast or even the draw. On the plus side it will be a great match to sit back and watch and not have to worry about doing your hard earned cash on a Monday, hopefully your wallets are already full from the first 5 games of the weekend.

Last 5 games
Western Sydney         1
Draw                           2
Central Coast             2

Rated Prices
Western Sydney         $1.90
Draw                           $3.99
Central Coast             $4.49

Market   
Western Sydney         $1.85 TAB
Draw                           $3.65 Sportingbet
Central Coast             $4.50 Betstar

Best Value: Nothing.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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