Best Value
Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.81
I’m pretty keen on the Overs in the first game of Round 10. I think the last three rounds have been a little misleading, if you look before that, both of these sides have a high scoring rate, and covering the 2.5 goal line the majority of the time. I think Melbourne City should score at least 1 goal, and I like Sydney’s chances of winning, so on that train of thought the game must go overs.
Next Best Value
Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $3.80
I know it’s hard to tip Central Coast with any confidence, but Wellington have been playing atrocious, and I think $3.80 with money back for the draw for anyone against Wellington is good value. Central Coast haven’t been playing that bad lately, and I’m hoping they can jag an upset in this one.
Best Value:
1st: Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.81
2nd: Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $3.80
3rd: Western Sydney/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74
4th: Perth/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67
Sydney FC v Melbourne City
Friday 9 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium
What cracker of a match we have to get Round 10 under way, the top two teams facing off in Sydney and Melbourne City. Sydney had to travel to Newcastle last week in a match that they needed to win after a couple of lackluster draws. I thought they were going to end up with yet another draw after the scores sat at 0-0 as the hour mark went by, but they managed to knock in a couple of goals in the remaining thirty minutes to land a comfortable enough win. Melbourne City were probably slightly disappointing in their 1-1 draw against Brisbane last Saturday. They were at home and a pretty heavy favourite, so most thought they’d be able to get the job done, but it wasn’t to be. They went into halftime 1-0 down, so to come back and level things up was probably a decent enough effort. I think Sydney are back to their best and should have no trouble controlling Melbourne City here. I was thinking that they’d be odds-on, but the bookies have gone up $2.20, which looks to be more than generous.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 0
Melbourne City 3
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.88
Melbourne City $4.43
Draw $4.14
Market Price:
Sydney $2.20 Sportsbet
Melbourne City $3.45 Unibet
Draw $3.55 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.42
Melbourne City $3.36
Market Price:
Sydney $1.58 Sportsbet
Melbourne City $2.50 Everywhere
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.29
Over $1.44
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.81 Unibet
Value:
Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.81
Sydney – Head to Head – $2.20
Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.58
Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners
Saturday 10 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) – FMG Stadium
Going from the great looking fixture on Friday night, to this is a bit of a let down, but it’s still an A-League game, and there’s still money to get made, so let’s have a look at Wellington vs Central Coast. Wellington headed to Adelaide last week, and were a massive underdog, which was surprising considering Adelaide were still winless for the season. But Adelaide’s losing streak ended there as they beat Wellington 2-0. Wellington weren’t too bad though, they held 55% of the possession and had 14 shots at goal, but they couldn’t quite finish off. Central Coast was average against Western Sydney. They were at home, so I expected to see a little more from them, but they were torn apart, and lost 4-1. They had been playing some reasonable football lately, but they dropped the ball in this one. You’d think Wellington should be able to scrounge up a win in this, but it’s always hard to tip average teams. I thought Wellington should be right around $2.00, so when I saw that the best available was $1.67, I had to look elsewhere. Central Coast at $5.00 looks a juicy price, although same thing as before, it’s hard to tip an average team. I think the $3.80, with money back for a draw is the ideal way to go in this one.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 2
Central Coast 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.99
Central Coast $4.12
Draw $3.92
Market Price:
Wellington $1.67 Everywhere
Central Coast $5.00 Palmerbet, Unibet
Draw $4.00 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.48
Central Coast $3.05
Market Price:
Wellington $1.29 Bet365
Central Coast $3.80 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.02
Over $1.49
Market Price:
Under $2.40 Unibet
Over $1.59 Sportsbet
Value:
Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $3.80
Central Coast – Head to Head – $5.00
Western Sydney Wanderers v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 10 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium
There’s another big game on here, it’s two of the clubs with the biggest fan-bases, Melbourne Victory and Western Sydney. I thought Melbourne Victory had every chance to get the win last week when they hosted Perth. They had a huge amount of possession (67%), and fired away 14 shots at goal, compared to just 2, but it wasn’t enough to get all three points. Somehow they had to settle for a 1-1 draw, and to make things worse, they were actually 1-0 down early in the game. They managed to tie it all up just before the break, but then it was a stalemate from start to finish in the second half. Western Sydney did a demolition job on Central Coast last week, they were on the road, but that didn’t stop them scoring. Five minutes into the game they were 1-0 down, but from then on it was one-way traffic. They finished the game with 4 goals, easily winning the game 4-1. This looks like it could be a pretty tight match, but Western Sydney should be able to get the better of Melbourne Victory I think. I don’t mind the price of Western Sydney either, but I think the real value could be in the Over/Under market. I like Over 2.5 Goals, Western Sydney should be hopefully able to cover that their selves, just like last week.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 1
Melbourne Victory 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.21
Melbourne Victory $3.54
Draw $3.77
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.45 Bet365, William Hill
Melbourne Victory $2.90 Unibet
Draw $3.40 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.62
Melbourne Victory $2.60
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.80 Bet365
Melbourne Victory $2.08 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.26
Over $1.44
Market Price:
Under $2.08 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.74 Palmerbet, Unibet
Value:
Western Sydney/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74
Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.80
Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.45
Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets
Saturday 10 December, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
Newcastle is making the trip west to face Perth in the third and final game of Saturday’s triple-header. Perth put up a good fight against Melbourne Victory last Friday. Courtesy of Keogh, they took an early lead and held that almost until halftime, but a late goal from Berisha tied it all up going into the break. Perth struggled to get a hold of the ball in the second half, but did manage to keep the score at 1-1 until the final whistle. Newcastle had the tough task in hosting Sydney last week. Unsurprisingly they didn’t put up too much of a fight and went down 2-0. It was a little disappointing that they didn’t even get one shot on target for the whole match though. Perth should just win this, no doubts about it. Back at home this looks a really easy task for them. The market is bang on I think, so staying out of the Head to Heads. Over 2.5 Goals looks a really strong bet, Perth home games have a high percentage of going over 2.5, and I think this will do the same.
Last 5 games:
Perth 4
Newcastle 0
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $1.56
Newcastle $7.01
Draw $4.60
Market Price:
Perth $1.70 William Hill, Unibet
Newcastle $5.00 Sportsbet, Palmerbet
Draw $4.05 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.22
Newcastle $5.49
Market Price:
Perth $1.30 Bet365, Unibet
Newcastle $3.92 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.36
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $2.33 Unibet
Over $1.67 Bet365
Value:
Perth/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67
Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United
Sunday 11 December, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
Last game of Round 10 is Brisbane and Adelaide facing off at Suncorp Stadium. Even though it was only a draw, I think Brisbane’s effort against Melbourne City away last week was one of the better of the round. Melbourne City is one of the very best teams this season, and they took the game right up to them. They were leading 1-0 at the break, but couldn’t hold on and allowed Colazo to level things up. Either way, I think a point out of that fixture is a good result. Adelaide finally broke through with their first win of the season last week, albeit against the now, bottom of the table, Wellington. Can’t take too much out of the match, it was a must win game for them, and they got it done relatively convincingly. I think Adelaide will really struggle to make it back-to-back wins against a strong Brisbane outfit. Brisbane are more than a reasonable price at $2.05 too, thought they’d be a bit shorter than that, and they probably will be by kickoff.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 1
Adelaide 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.79
Adelaide $4.92
Draw $4.21
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.05 William Hill
Adelaide $3.70 Unibet
Draw $3.65 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.36
Adelaide $3.75
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.48 William Hill
Adelaide $2.70 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.46
Over $1.68
Market Price:
Under $2.05 Unibet
Over $1.80 Bet365
Value:
Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.05
@AL_TheProfits
*Prices correct at time of writing
