Once again last week Adelaide made me pull my hair out, backing them as a long priced underdog, they take the lead, and then throw the game away, it’s starting to get annoying. Perth and Central Coast did pretty much as was expected of them, the two surprise packets were Melbourne Heart managing a draw against Western Sydney when on the road, and Newcastle coming away with all 3 points out of their game against Melbourne Victory.
Newcastle continue to impress and they now look a genuine finals contender, with many impressive performances throughout the season, as long as Taggart can stay fit, they should continue to play well.
Brisbane are continuing their dominance as the season goes on and have now managed to squeeze out a 5 point lead at the top of the table, only dropping points in 2 games so far this season, when losing to Newcastle and Melbourne Victory.
Couple of the early matches this round look a little tough to have a bet but it gets easier as the round goes on, with the 2 Sydney clubs looking pretty good value in both of their fixtures.
Best Value: Western Sydney at $2.37 with Sportsbet
Second Best Value: Sydney at $1.91 with Betstar
Melbourne Victory v Perth
Friday 13 December 7:30pm (local) – AAMI Park
Perth got the job done last week when hosting Wellington, as expected, in a very high scoring game, finishing 4-2. With Wellington making the big trip to Perth off a short backup, everything pointed to Perth being able to secure the 3 points, and they did so with relative ease. Melbourne Victory was very disappointing last week, after dominating play for about the first half an hour, everything seemed to go downhill from then onwards. Newcastle had the upper hand on them for the remainder of the match and they looked very dangerous every time they attacked. Perth is yet to win on the road this and only won 3 away games since the start of last season, not an enviable stat to say the least. Melbourne Victory should get all the favours, slight query of the quick back up after playing on Sunday, but both games are at home means they should be back to 100% fitness in time. I expect Melbourne Victory to be able to win this fairly comfortably, but I’m not jumping out of trees to back them. Bookies have well and truly found the right price for them, they are a tiny bit of value in my opinion, but not enough to tempt me in.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Draw 0
Perth 2
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Victory $1.56
Draw $4.61
Perth $7.04
Market:
Melbourne Victory $1.63 Tatts
Draw $4.00 Betstar, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes
Perth $6.00 Sportingbet
Best Value: Nothing
Wellington v Brisbane
Saturday 14 December 5:30pm (local) – Westpac Stadium
Brisbane gets another chance to keep their winning ways going when heading over to New Zealand to face Wellington who are still searching for their first win of the season. On the plus side for the home team, they have drawn 3 of their 4 games this season in New Zealand, but have been far from impressive. Week in week out Brisbane are stamping themselves as a real contender this season, after going down early to Adelaide last week they fought back strongly to take the game 2-1, their star Berisha netting both goals (1 from a penalty). The fact that Hernandez looks unlikely to play for Wellington further hurts their chances. Brisbane also has the recent head to head record over Wellington, winning 4 of the last 5 games they’ve played, the other being a draw. I think Brisbane should be about an even money favourite, unfortunately they are a little shorter than that, and neither Wellington or the draw a rejuicy enough to lure me in, unfortunately another pass game for me.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 0
Draw 1
Brisbane 4
Rated Prices:
Wellington $4.10
Draw $3.84
Brisbane $2.02
Market:
Wellington $4.40 Sportingbet
Draw $3.70 Sportsbet, Tatts
Brisbane $1.93 Betstar
Best Value: Nothing
Adelaide v Central Coast
Saturday 14 December 5:00pm (local) – Coopers Stadium
Finally a match we can sink our teeth into. Central Coast, have been far from dominate, but have usually been getting the job done when they need to, and I think they’ll do the same for us this round. Adelaide must be such a frustrating team to follow, being in a winning position so often and throwing games, it’s certainly frustrating if you bet them. This game has Central Coast written all over it, they have won the last 9 times these teams have faced off, the last time Adelaide got the wood over Central Coast was way back in September 2009. Central Coast has to start making they’re run towards the top end of the table and after notching up a win last week I think they will continue on their way. The $2.30 looks a good price and I think they should start around even money, if not touch a slight bit of odds on. Also if you’re an in-play better and Adelaide happen to score the first goal in the first half, I’d be pretty tempted to double dip on Central Coast with Adelaide struggling to play games all the way out this season.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 0
Draw 0
Central Coast 5
Rated Prices:
Adelaide $4.21
Draw $3.80
Central Coast $2.00
Market:
Adelaide $3.15 Betstar
Draw $3.40 Ladbrokes
Central Coast $2.30 TAB, Sportsbet
Best Value: Central Coast at $2.30 with TAB, Sportbet
Newcastle v Western Sydney
Saturday 14 December 7:45pm (local) – Hunter Stadium
This is a pretty interesting match, not surprised Newcastle has come up a little shorter than I thought they should be, they are in great form, and their rating is always improving, but they are coming up against one of the strongest teams in the league. The reining premiers have desperately been missing Juric though, without him over the last month the have struggled in offense, and unfortunately for Western Sydney he isn’t due back yet. Newcastle’s duo of Taggart and Burns have been incredibly impressive so far this season, and in recent times have been the reason for them getting 12 points out of the last 5 games, the pair will continue to be very dangerous whenever they get into the final third of the pitch. Western Sydney look a little sketchy after their draw with Melbourne Heart last week but I’m pretty sure they can bounce back in the best way possible this Saturday night and take care of Newcastle, I’m all over the $2.37 and think they look the best value of the round.
Last 2 games:
Newcastle 1
Draw 0
Western Sydney 2
Rated Prices:
Newcastle $4.15
Draw $3.87
Western Sydney $2.00
Market:
Newcastle $3.30 Betstar
Draw $3.30 TAB
Western Sydney $2.37 Sportsbet
Best Value: Western Sydney at $2.37 with Sportsbet
Sydney v Melbourne Heart
Sunday 15 December 5:00pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
We round the weekend out with a solo game on Sunday, and it’s a great game to have a bet on. Melbourne Heart has still amazingly only won 1 game on the road since the start of last season (19 games), and I’m pretty sure by Monday that will be 1 out of their last 20. Sydney while not standing out too much this season have an impeccable home record, winning 80% (second highest in the league) of their games in Sydney. The big turning point in this game is probably if Del Piero lines up, even without him I’d be still happy to back Sydney, but if he is playing then it makes them a very good bet. While still not winning, Melbourne Heart have looked a little better their last two games, but they’ll need to continue that improvement if they’re to be competitive in this match. The home side should be long odds on in this fixture, not the $1.91 that Betstar are allowing you to get on, that looks very generous I think.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Draw 2
Melbourne Heart 1
Rated Prices:
Sydney $1.63
Draw $4.52
Melbourne Heart $6.02
Market:
Sydney $1.91 Betstar
Draw $3.60 Sportsbet
Melbourne Heart $4.35 Sportingbet, TAB
Best Value: Sydney at $1.91 with Betstar
