Isn’t it great to be back at this time of year! The A-League is about to kick off for a 10th season, and what a great success it’s become, every year getting bigger and better. The crowds are getting bigger, the stars we’re importing are getting bigger, and the punting on it is definitely getting bigger each year that goes by.
I remember this time last year I was nervous going into Round 1, not knowing how my ratings would stand up against everyone else that was trying to do the same thing. Not this year though, I’d like to think that I have my ratings pretty spot on, allowing us to take advantage of these early season markets where the bookies don’t quite know where every team stands.
This season I’ve still got the classic Head to Head market, mainly because I think this is where most of the best value is to be found, I said it all season and I’ll continue to say it, based on the figures, the “Draw” is nearly always unders, so why wouldn’t you bet into a 3 horse race when you know 1 is paying under the odds.
I understand not everyone loves this Head to Head as much as me though, so this season I’m introducing the “Over/Under 2.5 Goals” and “Draw No Bet” markets. I won’t bother putting up market prices for the “Over/Under” as most would be aware it’s basically the same everywhere, I’ll just highlight if I think there is some value to be had. With the “Draw No Bet” market prices I’ll usually just use the same bookie that has the best price for them Head to Head as they should always have the best price for this market too.
Over the rounds I might change this up a little to see what works best but I’m happy to go with that at this stage.
I strongly encourage any questions or queries that you might have about my write-up’s each week, or just A-League in general.
If you like what you read I’d really appreciate the odd RT on twitter, trying to get the word out about A-League and how great this competition has become to the wider community is half the reason I started doing this.
Bottom line is we’d all love to retire on betting on any sport, A-League included, but for the majority of us that will never happen, so have some fun watching great soccer in our own backyard, and if you can make a few extra bucks over the weekend, happy days.
Best of luck punting.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value: Sydney (Head to Head and Draw No Bet).
Second Best Value: Melbourne Victory/Western Sydney Over 2.5 Goals.
Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers
Friday 10 October, 7:40pm (local) – Etihad Stadium
It’s been a while, but come 7:40 Friday night A-League will finally be back up and running, and what a cracker of a match it is to kick off the 10th season. These are the two clubs with the biggest fan bases going around, Etihad Stadium will be bouncing. Both teams suffered a little during the off-season, losing some key players like Traore, Troisi and Rogic for Victory and Ono, Hersi and Mooy for the Wanderers. Victory did manage to land gun striker Berisha though, which should help their offense. I think this will be a pretty close affair, with the edge going slightly to the Melbourne Victory, but the value isn’t there to back them straight out. One thing that does look more obvious is the amount of goals that will be scored, both teams focus a lot more up the front of the pitch than down the back, so I think backing Over 2.5 Goals looks the smart play for this game.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 1
Draw 1
Western Sydney 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.09
Draw $3.93
Western Sydney $3.75
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.15 Centrebet, Sportingbet, TW
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet
Western Sydney $3.50 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.38
Under $3.62
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.56
Western Sydney $2.79
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.55
Western Sydney $2.45
Best Value: Melbourne Victory/Western Sydney Over 2.5 Goals.
Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets
Saturday 11 October, 5:00pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium
Less than 24 hours into the new A-League season and I’m guessing I’ll have to start defending how highly I rate Central Coast. I have them as one of the best teams in the league, and from everything I’ve read, most don’t think they’ll make the finals, I guess we’ll see. The thing I like most about the Mariners is how they have made such little changes to their team from last season, everyone knows how their teammates play and where they’ll be making their runs. If nothing else they should at least start the season well. Newcastle has lost some big names over the break, most obviously Taggart, who was the only shining light for the Jets last season. It doesn’t help that Newcastle haven’t managed to win against Central Coast in their last 5 meetings either. I think it’s pretty obvious Central Coast is the way to go here, I have them rated at $1.63, the $2.15 looks great to me, you’d think they’d start odds-on. In the Draw No Bet market they are still value, but at $1.27 you have to lay down a lot, to make a little.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 3
Draw 2
Newcastle 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.63
Draw $4.56
Newcastle $6.04
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.15 Sportsbet, Sportingbet
Draw $3.40
Newcastle $3.40 Luxbet, Ladbrokes, Betstar
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.97
Under $2.03
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.27
Newcastle $4.71
Market Price:
Central Coast $1.55
Newcastle $2.45
Best Value: Central Coast (Head to Head and Draw No Bet).
Sydney FC v Melbourne City
Saturday 11 October, 7:30pm (local) – Allianz Stadium
This will probably be the big talking point of the weekend, will the big imports that Melbourne City have forked out the big dollars for not only take the pitch, but play up to their expectations. Villa is a legitimate star, if he plays to 75% of his ability he could carve up the Sydney defense. They also have Duff and Koren joining the side, it could be a great team, but they have to gel together and all bring it to the pitch. Sydney brought in quite a few players over the break too, but they also lost quite a few, including Del Piero, I don’t think they’ll go backwards from last season though. I have these two teams rated basically the same, but the home ground advantage is what has pushed my price so low for Sydney. Last season Sydney won an amazing 60% of their home games, which was the 2nd highest strike rate in the league. I don’t care what team it is, it’s going to be hard for teams to travel to Allianz Stadium and come away with a win. With all the hype around Melbourne City and their star-studded line-up, the bookmakers have the 2 teams basically the same price. I’m more than happy to go with the proven team with the great home record, and to get $2.60, it’s like Christmas has come early. If you’re a little more cautious, getting $1.80 for them in a Draw No Bet market seems a great price too, I have them rated shorter than that in the Head to Head ($1.79). Sydney is my best bet of the round, so I hope they don’t disappoint, and I hope Villa doesn’t come out and score a hat trick.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 3
Draw 0
Melbourne City 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.79
Draw $4.25
Melbourne City $4.86
Market Price:
Sydney $2.60 Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Betstar
Draw $3.45 Sportingbet
Melbourne City $2.75 Luxbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $2.00
Under $2.00
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.37
Melbourne City $3.72
Market Price:
Sydney $1.80
Melbourne City $1.92
Best Value: Sydney (Head to Head and Draw No Bet).
Wellington Phoenix v Perth Glory
Sunday 12 October, 3:00pm (local) – Westpac Stadium
And so the battle for the Wooden Spoon begins. Sorry, I might be being a little harsh on these two sides, but it’s hard to imagine either of them playing finals football. I don’t think things look good for Wellington, they’ve lost Hernandez, Bertos and Hysegems, and haven’t gained a lot, Burns goes ok, but that’s about it. Perth have faired a little better, although they’ve lost Smeltz, gaining players like Hersi, Keogh and Zadkovic should help their side overall. After that you’d think I’d be leading to an improved Perth team in this fixture, only I haven’t mentioned how Perth go on the road. In one word, horrible, last season they travelled 15 times, how many of those did they win, just 1, that’s under 7%, it was the worst in the league. Not only do they have to travel, they’re making the longest trip an A-League side has to make, Western Australia to New Zealand. Wellington have an unenviable home record, but it looks glowing compared to their oppositions away one. There’s not enough value to take Wellington in the Draw No Bet market, but in the standard market I think there is. At $2.50 I’d be happy to back Wellington. Be mindful though, I wouldn’t take Wellington any shorter than $2.40, so if they drop below that it then becomes a no bet match for me.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 2
Draw 2
Perth 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.14
Draw $3.78
Perth $3.74
Market Price:
Wellington $2.50 Luxbet
Draw $3.25 Everywhere
Perth $3.00 Ladbrokes, Betstar
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.89
Under $2.13
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.57
Perth $2.57
Market Price:
Wellington $1.70
Perth $3.00
Best Value: Wellington (Head to Head).
Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United
Sunday 12 October 5:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium
As the opening round of the 2014/15 A-League season draws to a close we finally get to see the team that was a country mile better than any other last season, Brisbane. After losing Berisha I don’t think they’ll find it as easy as last season, but they still look the team to beat. Broich is still there, and I’m sure he’ll still setting up goals on plates for any Roar players that wander into the box. The Adelaide line-up hasn’t changed all that much, and they once again look like they’ll have a decent team. Unfortunately for them they have drawn the short straw in Round 1 and have to travel to Suncorp Stadium to take on Brisbane. The Roar were beasts at home last season, winning over 64% of the games they hosted. I think the home side will be extremely hard to beat and have accordingly priced them at $1.69, unfortunately the market see’s it the same way I do and the best around is $1.83, which just isn’t enough to entice me in. If they get out to $1.90 then they’re worth a bet, but for the mean while it looks like I’ll be just sitting back watching how last seasons premiers have come back this year.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 5
Draw 0
Adelaide 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.69
Draw $4.64
Adelaide $5.22
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.83 Sportingbet
Draw $3.75 Sportsbet
Adelaide $4.50 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Over $1.84
Under $2.18
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.32
Adelaide $4.09
Market Price
Brisbane $1.37
Adelaide $3.25
Best Value: No bet.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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