Unfortunately it was a rough round for us to finish off the regular season, with only 1 of the 4 selections landing. I think teams with nothing to play for cost us over the weekend with Brisbane, Wellington and Melbourne Heart all losing, each results matches meant nothing to their overall standing. On the plus side the 3 plays in the over/under markets all landed, getting something out of the week.
The Newcastle/Adelaide and Sydney/Perth games went as expected with the home teams winning on both occasions. Both were short enough favourites so they had every right to win.
Then we had the other games. Wellington showed very little when they hosted Melbourne Victory. The visitors came away with an impressive 4-1 win, locking them into a top 4 position. Wellington had nothing to play for with their season over, and that showed in their performance.
Then a similar thing happened when Western Sydney went down south to take on Melbourne Heart. The home team had no reason to fight for a win with their season over, so Western Sydney came down and took away all 3 points with a 3-2 victory.
It was no better with the last game on Saturday as the premiers hosted Central Coast. Brisbane had won the premiership a couple of weeks before and had taken it easy the last few weeks, and the same thing happened this week. Central Coast came away with a nice 2-0 win, but it’s hard to know how much you can actually take out of that victory.
And so we are finally here, the first week of the A League finals for the 2013/14 season. There are 2 Elimination Finals matches for us to look at, Melbourne Victory vs Sydney and Central Coast vs Adelaide. Both look like they could be cracking games. The home teams looked to have a distinct advantage, but that’s why they have been fighting for top spots on the ladder all season.
Best of luck on the punt this weekend everybody.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value: Central Coast at $2.15 with Luxbet/TAB.
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC
Friday 18 April 7:30pm (local) – Etihad Stadium
The first Elimination Final is at Etihad Stadium on Friday as Melbourne Victory hosts Sydney in what is always an epic matchup. Melbourne Victory finished up the season in fourth spot on the ladder after they travelled to Wellington last week and managed to land all 3 points. It was a very impressive performance taking the game out 4-1, and the 1 was a late injury time goal. If they can perform like that again this week they’ll go very close to playing next week. Sydney also won last week, but their effort wasn’t as convincing. It was looking like it was going to be a 1-1 draw until an injury time goal by Garcia. Melbourne Victory have a good home record, winning over 50% of their games in Victoria this season where as Sydney’s road record is closer to 25%, a big advantage for the home side. Melbourne Victory deserves to be a short price favourite in this matchup. I have them rated at $1.99, but the best any of the bookmakers are prepared to offer is $2.00, which is not enough to entice me in. If they somehow drift out to $2.20 I’d be interested, but I don’t think I can see that happening. The overs/unders market is too hard to have a play at either with the last 10 matches between these 2 being split down the center, 5 going unders, 5 goings overs. We’ll have to wait till Saturday to have a selection in the A League Finals.
Last 10 games:
Melbourne Victory 2
Draw 5
Sydney 3
Rated Prices:
Melbourne Victory $1.99
Draw $3.98
Sydney $4.08
Market:
Melbourne Victory $2.00 Betstar, Ladbrokes
Draw $3.50 Betstar, Sportsbet
Sydney $4.00 Sportingbet
Best Value: Nothing.
Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide FC
Saturday 19 April 4:30pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium
The second Elimination Final is a much better prospect to have a bet in. On Saturday afternoon we see Adelaide head across to the East Coast to face Central Coast. Central Coast will come into this fixture with a lot of confidence after they headed to Brisbane and gave the best team in the league a 2-0 beating. They scored a couple of goals early and held that for the entire match. Adelaide was rather average last week, losing 2-0 to Newcastle, a team that isn’t even playing finals. If they both take their form from last round into this week the result looks fairly obvious. Central Coast has been outstanding at Bluetongue Stadium as well this year so that should help their cause as well. One thing going against them is the fact that the last 2 times these teams have met, Adelaide has got the better of them, although the previous 8 meetings before that Central Coast took away all the points. I think the home team should be $1.80, but our good friends at Luxbet and the TAB are offering up $2.15. I think this is a great price, I can’t believe Central Coast isn’t odds on to be honest. They are in great form winning 4 out of their last 5 games, and I think they’ll get another win this week taking them into the Semi Finals. In overs/unders I’d slightly favour overs, but it’s not as clear-cut as I often see.
Last 10 games:
Central Coast 8
Draw 0
Adelaide 2
Rated Prices:
Central Coast $1.80
Draw $4.05
Adelaide $5.03
Market:
Central Coast $2.15 Luxbet, TAB
Draw $3.50 Tatts
Adelaide $3.50 Sportingbet
Best Value: Central Coast at $2.15 with Luxbet/TAB.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
