Best Value
Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.40
I’m super keen to get stuck into Newcastle, can’t believe they’ve gone up $2.40 at home. They were disappointing last week, but I’m sure they’ll bounce back with a win here.
Next Best Value
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $5.00
This is a little tougher, but I’m giving Wellington a sniff in their match against Adelaide. Head to Head could be worth something small, but at $5.00 I prefer them in the Draw No Bet market.
1st: Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.40
2nd: Wellington – Draw No Bet – $5.00
3rd: Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.85
4th: Draw – Head to Head – $4.33
Perth Glory v Sydney FC
Thursday 29 March, 9:30pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
First cab off the rank is Perth and Sydney on Thursday night at NIB Stadium. Perth is coming off an impressive win against Melbourne Victory at home last week. They only held 35% of possession, but somehow had more shots throughout the game than their opposition. While they’re not one of the top teams in the A-League, when they’re at home they’re a different side. This 1-0 win keeps them in the finals hunt, and every home game for them is a big possibility of three more points. While Sydney did get the job done against Central Coast, they were very lucky in my opinion with their match-winning goal coming very late in injury time, and helped by some sloppy keeping. They’ve all but got the minor premiership all but won now, so they may take the foot off the peddle in these finals weeks of the regular season, and that’s what might of happen last week. No doubt Sydney should be winning this match, but I don’t think it’s as one-sided as I imagine most think it is. Due to that reason I’m more than happy with the $4.00 around for Perth, they are a class side when playing in Western Australia, and an upset here wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.
Last 5 games:
Perth 0
Sydney 5
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $3.18
Sydney $2.41
Draw $3.70
Market Price:
Perth $4.00 Ladbrokes
Sydney $4.00 William Hill
Draw $1.95 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $2.32
Sydney $1.76
Market Price:
Perth $2.85 Unibet
Sydney $1.50 Ladbrokes
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.42
Over $1.70
Market Price:
Under $2.50 Ubet
Over $1.57 Everywhere
Value: Perth – Head to Head – $4.00
Perth – Draw No Bet – $2.85
Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix
Friday 30 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
We’re off to Hindmarsh Stadium on Friday night to watch Adelaide and Wellington go head to head, although the odds say it might be very one-sided. Adelaide demolished Newcastle last Friday when playing at home. They scored early through Adlung, and he managed to bury another before Newcastle could get on the board. In the end Newcastle scored two goals, but that was nothing compared to the five Adelaide put past Duncan. Adelaide has now nearly secured their finals ticket, but they’ll be hoping to weasel up a spot or two before finals rolls around to give themselves a better chance. Wellington held their own when hosting Brisbane last week. It was a 2-2 draw in the end, but it played out quite unusually. The first half was scoreless, and then early in the second half there was a flurry of goals, with all four goals conceded within a fifteen-minute period. During this time both teams lead at a point, but as we know they had to split the points at the final whistle. I rate Adelaide $1.78 pop here, so there is little doubt that they get the job done, especially with a lot more on the line than Wellington. But for some reason, I think Wellington have come up value at $7.00. Yes that is probably crazy, but at the $5.00 in the Draw No Bet market I’m tempted to have a nibble.
Last 5 games:
\Adelaide 2
Wellington 0
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.78
Wellington $4.94
Draw $4.25
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.50 Everywhere
Wellington $7.00 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $4.50 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.36
Wellington $3.78
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.20 Ladbrokes
Wellington $5.00 Everywhere
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.34
Over $1.75
Market Price:
Under $2.50 William Hill
Over $1.57 Bet365, Sportsbet
Value: Wellington – Head to Head – $7.00
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $5.00
Brisbane Roar v Central Coast Mariners
Saturday 31 March, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
There’s another short priced favourite, this time in our Saturday afternoon match with Brisbane taking on Central Coast. Brisbane were a little disappointing last week when they drew 2-2 with Wellington, but it was away, which is New Zealand for this fixture, so I’m tempted to be a little soft on them. They scored the opening goal, but then shortly after they were trailing by a goal, so I’m guessing they’ll take the one point they earned from the match. They’re now sitting only one point outside of the finals positions, so these remaining few games are very important for Brisbane. Central Coast put up an almighty performance against Sydney last Saturday. They looked for all money like they were going to steal a point out of the fixture, but some very poor keeping from Kennedy, deep in injury time cost them the draw. Finals is not an option again for this side, they’ll just be hoping to play out the season with a bit of dignity. Brisbane need the win, and they should have no trouble getting it either, on paper this looks a walk in the park for them. Their price is way too short though down near $1.60, so I’ll be sitting this one out.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 4
Central Coast 0
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.73
Central Coast $5.45
Draw $4.18
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.61 William Hill
Central Coast $5.50 TopBetta, Bet365
Draw $4.25 TopBetta
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.32
Central Coast $4.15
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.23 Unibet, Ubet
Central Coast $4.20 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.55
Over $1.64
Market Price:
Under $2.25 Everywhere
Over $1.63 Ubet
Value: No value
Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 31 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
This should be a good match at AAMI Park on Saturday night as Melbourne Victory endeavor to bounce back after last weeks loss when they hosted Western Sydney. The boys in blue dominated their opponent in Perth last week as far as possession goes, but games aren’t won in possession, and Perth got the better of them on the scoreboard. I can’t say I’m too surprised as Perth is a dynamite home side, but that was points Melbourne Victory needed going into finals. They’ve now dropped to fourth behind their across town rival in Melbourne City on the table, but they’ll be eager to make sure they finish back above them. Western Sydney didn’t really turn up last week when they played Melbourne City. I thought they’d be more competitive, but they never really looked dangerous in any way. The stats tell the story too with an amazing 0 shots on target for the whole match, hard to win games doing that. They’re currently in sixth spot on the table, but any more games like that they could easily drop out of finals contention. It’s not clear-cut, but you’d think Melbourne Victory should be able to get back into the winner circle this week now they’re back at home. In the five years I’ve been doing write-ups for TheProfits, I think this is the second or third time I’m going to be tipping up the Draw as value. You very really, if ever see $4.00+ for a draw in A-League, but Bet365 have gone up $4.33, and that’s good enough for me.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Western Sydney 0
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.87
Western Sydney $4.65
Draw $3.98
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.72 Sportsbet
Western Sydney $4.75 Bet365
Draw $4.33 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.40
Western Sydney $3.48
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.30 Sportsbet, Bet365
Western Sydney $3.65 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price: Under $2.45
Over $1.69
Market Price: Under $2.62 Sportsbet
Over $1.50 Bet365
Value: Draw – Head to Head – $4.33
Newcastle Jets v Melbourne City
Sunday 1 April, 5:00pm (AEDT) – hunter Stadium
Last match of the round, and probably the one I’m looking forward to the most is Newcastle vs Melbourne City. Newcastle is coming off that belting by Adelaide last Friday where they lost 5-2. Yes that was a horrid performance, but we all know they’re a lot better than that, and with the jostling for finals positions upon us, I can see them turning things around. Prior to last week they had won three matches in a row, including a victory over Sydney. The nine days between matches will surely help them out too. Melbourne City was very impressive against Western Sydney last week. They won 3-0, and their defense was so solid Western Sydney never looked like scoring. They’ve now moved their way up to third on the table, and while they won’t be able to catch Newcastle in second, a win against them here will give them confidence going into finals. I think if you put a line through Newcastle’s last match, you’ve got to chalk these guys down as an odds-on chance. They’re the superior side, and at home, all the boxes are ticked. Super keen on them at the $2.40 too, that seems like highway robbery to me. We’ve had to wait till the end of the round, but this has to be the best value going around all weekend.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 3
Melbourne City 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.89
Melbourne City $4.47
Draw $4.03
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.40 TopBetta, Unibet
Melbourne City $2.90 William Hill, TopBetta
Draw $3.60 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.42
Melbourne City $3.36
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.75 Unibet
Melbourne City $2.10 Sportsbet, Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.17
Over $1.46
Market Price:
Under $2.12 Ubet
Over $1.70 Everywhere
Value: Newcastle – Head to Head – $2.40
Newcastle/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $1.75
