Best Value
Wellington/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
Very keen on the “Overs” in the New Zealand game. If you look at both teams’ games in Round 17 you’ll see that both games had a total of 5 goals each scored in them, if this week’s game is anything like those the $1.75 is money for jam.
Next Best Value
Perth – Head to Head – $1.97
Perth should be tough to beat back at home this week against an out of form Western Sydney. Even though they lost last week, Perth were admiral in defeat, and a similar performance will likely get them the chocolates here.
1st: Wellington/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
2nd: Perth – Head to Head – $1.97
3rd: Wellington – Head to Head – $2.75
4th: Central Coast/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82
Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets
Thursday 25 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
This will be the second biggest game of the round to the Big Blue on Australia Day, but as far as current form is concerned this is the highlight of Round 18. We’ve got Newcastle heading down south to take on Melbourne City who is off the quick backup after playing on Sunday. In that match Melbourne City hosted Adelaide, a match that they were always expected to win. They didn’t just win though, they gave Adelaide an absolute drubbing, beating them 5-0. That win will have them on a high, and now that they’re within two games on Newcastle on the table, they’ll be out for blood. Newcastle was probably the shock performance of the round last week when they lost to Wellington at home. They never looked like winning either, with the final score being 3-2, but they’re last goal was a late consolidation goal to make the score look not quite as bad as it really was. They’ve been so consistent lately, so this was a real shock, they’ll be wanting to make sure they bounce straight back to their best this week. At home Melbourne City holds all the aces, and should be able to get the win over Newcastle, putting pressure on them for second on the table. $2.10 will do me as well for Melbourne City, I expected to see odds-on. Nothing wrong with the Over 2.5 Goals here either with both teams coming off five goal games.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 3
Newcastle 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.88
Newcastle $4.51
Draw $4.08
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.10 Ladbrokes, Bet365
Newcastle $3.45 Ubet
Draw $3.60 William Hill, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.42
Newcastle $3.40
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.52 Everywhere
Newcastle $2.55 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.55
Over $1.64
Market Price:
Under $2.08 Unibet
Over $1.82 Ubet
Value: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.10
Melbourne City/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC
Friday 26 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
We have one of the biggest games of the year as Melbourne Victory and Sydney clash in the annual Big Blue on Australia Day. Last week Melbourne Victory had to take on Western Sydney at ANZ Stadium, and even though they have started to pick up their form, I doubted them. Boy, was I wrong, a solid 90-minute effort gave them all three points in a relative breeze. 3-0 was the final goal difference, and I think they deserved every bit of it. Barbarouses scored two of the goals, continuing his brilliant recent form which is going a long way to Melbourne Victory’s great overall form. Anyone know where Sydney were last Saturday, because they didn’t appear to be at the Sydney Football Stadium where they were meant to be playing Central Coast. They went into the match as an unbackable favourite, but only managed a draw. They fell behind very early in the game, from then it took them an hour to level up. They couldn’t score again though, leaving them with a draw from one of the most winnable fixtures on the calendar. I think Sydney bounce back, they’ll be extremely filthy about their effort last week and will come out firing. $2.60 looks nearly good enough, but I’d want just a bit better before I jumped into Sydney. Sit out and enjoy match for me.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 0
Sydney 4
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $3.18
Sydney $2.41
Draw $3.70
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.80 Everywhere
Sydney $2.60 Bet365
Draw $3.45 Unibet, Ubet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.32
Sydney $1.76
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.04 Unibet
Sydney $1.80 Everywhere
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $1.94
Over $2.06
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.90 Ubet
Value: No value
Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United
Saturday 27 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
The first of Saturday’s games is over in New Zealand between Wellington and Adelaide, a match where the market is struggling to find a favourite. Wellington were incredible last week, they played Newcastle at Hunter Stadium and beat them 3-2. If you watched the match it didn’t look like a fluke either, they played quality football, which they have been consistently doing lately. Newcastle was probably lucky to get their second goal too, it was in the last 5 minutes of the game. Adelaide were on the other end of the spectrum when they got an absolute hosing from Melbourne City. It was ugly at AAMI Park with the final score being 5-0. Adelaide never really looked all that dangerous either, which is something they need to change going forward. Based off last week’s efforts I’d be surprised if Wellington were to lose here, they’ve got the stronger form, and they’re at home, it looks a winning formula to me. $2.75 looks a steal too, can’t see why they’re that type of price. The best value for the match appears to be the Overs though with both teams coming off five goal matches, it’s hard to think that there won’t be least three goals scored here.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 0
Adelaide 2
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.22
Adelaide $3.41
Draw $3.91
Market Price:
Wellington $2.75 Unibet
Adelaide $2.50 Everywhere
Draw $3.60 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.65
Adelaide $2.54
Market Price:
Wellington $1.98 Unibet
Adelaide $1.83 Ubet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.91
Over $1.34
Market Price:
Under $2.15 William Hill
Over $1.75 Ubet
Value: Wellington/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
Wellington – Head to Head – $2.75
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.98
Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar
Saturday 27 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
Saturday night’s a bit more lack-luster than we’re used to, but Central Coast and Brisbane fans will be excited to see their teams go at it in prime time. Central Coast pulled of a miraculous draw against Sydney last week, they were the longest of priced underdogs, but that didn’t faze them. They came flying out of the barriers and put away a goal within the first 10 minutes. Everyone expected Sydney to run over them throughout the game but they couldn’t. They managed to tie things up, but that’s as far as they got. That will be a point that Central Coast wouldn’t have been expecting when looking at their fixtures. Brisbane got the job done against Perth in Round 17 when they hosted them. It took them until the third time they led the match to hold on and get the win, not the most convincing, but you’ll take it every day of the week. They’re now only one win from the bottom of the finals positions, so they’ll have to keep grinding more wins like that. I’ve got Central Coast marked at $2.14, surely that’s one of their shortest rated prices in quite some time. It’s hard to ignore their recent form, and if they play like that again they should get the victory. Their price is a little tight for me to get too excited, but Over 2.5 Goals is juicy enough for me. Brisbane games are generally high scoring, hopefully this is no different.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 0
Brisbane 4
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.14
Brisbane $3.70
Draw $3.82
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.20 Everywhere
Brisbane $3.40 Unibet
Draw $3.50 Palmerbet, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.58
Brisbane $2.73
Market Price:
Central Coast $1.57 William Hill
Brisbane $2.45 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Everywhere
Over $1.82 Ubet
Value: Central Coast/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82
Perth Glory v Western Sydney Wanderers
Sunday 28 January, 8:30pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
The final game of Round 18 is at NIB Stadium as Perth and Western Sydney go head to head. Perth were “ok” last Thursday. They were playing Brisbane away, so it was always an uphill battle. The first two times Brisbane scored Perth levelled things up quickly, but when Holman scored Brisbane’s third they couldn’t find an answer, and ended leaving them with a 3-2 loss. The silver lining was Harold scoring both of Perth’s goals, it’s always good to see your midfielders getting involved like that. Western Sydney were embarrassed at home last week when they hosted Melbourne Victory. While their opponents had been in good form, the home ground advantage should on been enough for Western Sydney to at least be competitive, if not get the win, but that was far from the end result. The final score was 3-0 in Melbourne Victory’s favour, leaving Western Sydney with a lot of disappointed fans. I couldn’t touch Western Sydney after last week, so I’ve got to be with Perth, back at home they’ll improve further. $2.50 will do me, I marked them just into odds-on.
Last 5 games:
Perth 1
Western Sydney 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $1.97
Western Sydney $4.21
Draw $3.94
Market Price:
Perth $2.50 William Hill
Western Sydney $2.80 Everywhere
Draw $3.60 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.47
Western Sydney $3.14
Market Price:
Perth $1.80 William Hill
Western Sydney $2.06 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62
Market Price:
Under $2.25 Palmerbet, Ubet
Over $1.66 Unibet
Value: Perth – Head to Head – $1.97
Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.80
