Best Value
Perth – Head to Head – $6.50
The biggest overs of the week has to be Perth doesn’t it? Melbourne Victory was very ordinary on Wednesday, and now they’re backing up a few days later, after a trip to New Zealand, I don’t know how anyone could back them. It would probably make more sense to take Perth in the Draw No Bet market, but at $6.50 I can’t resist a tiny bet on them Head to Head.
Next Best Value
Wellington/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67
I think we’re getting the $1.67 for Overs in this match because Western Sydney is playing, but Wellington home games are prone to huge goal tallies. Wellington scored a couple of goals themselves during the week at home so they’ve got their eye in too. Overs should sail through nice and easy on this one.
1st: Perth – Head to Head – $6.50
2nd: Wellington/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67
3rd: Central Coast/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
4th: Wellington – Head to Head – $2.80
Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar
Friday 12 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
Seems like it’s non-stop A-League with a third round of matches within about 10 days. First cab off the rank is Newcastle and Brisbane on Friday night at Hunter Stadium. Newcastle hosted Central Coast on Tuesday and as expected came away with a painless win. The final score was 2-0, but you feel they could of put more away if they really wanted to. Wow Brisbane were average on Monday. They were hosting Sydney, so they were always going to be up against it, but they didn’t put up any fight. For the whole game they only managed one shot on target and when your opposition gets seven the result is never going to go your way. By the time the match was done and dusted Sydney had won 3-0, leaving Brisbane only one spot off the bottom of the table. Newcastle is by far the superior team, plus the fact that they’ve got the advantage of back to back home games means this should be a walk in the park for them. At this stage I can’t back either side, but if Newcastle gets out to $1.80, which they aren’t too far off, they’ll be a get on.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 3
Brisbane 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.64
Brisbane $5.99
Draw $4.48
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.75 Everywhere
Brisbane $4.75 Bet365
Draw $4.00 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.27
Brisbane $4.65
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.36 Ladbrokes
Brisbane $3.55 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.84
Over $1.54
Market Price:
Under $2.25 Ubet
Over $1.64 Bet365
Value: No value
Wellington Phoenix v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 13 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
Saturday afternoon sees an interesting affair between Wellington and Western Sydney, a match that I think should be a close one. Wellington impressed me last week when they hosted Melbourne Victory, going into the match as the underdog. They started the match off slow and actually went into the break a goal down, but they fired up in the second half. Firstly scoring an equaliser through the reliable Krishna. Later in the game their pressure caused Melbourne Victory to concede an own goal, giving Wellington all three points. It was a ho-hum performance from Western Sydney on Wednesday. They hosted Adelaide, so not a walkover, but I did expect that they would win. At the break it was 0-0 and anyone’s game. After Clisby scored for them I thought they’d lock the game down and get the victory, but late in the match Adelaide found an equaliser, leaving the sides to share the points. After last weeks efforts Wellington should be the fav in this fixture, although as I mentioned above it should be close. The market is having trouble splitting these two, so that means that Wellington is value to my eye. The best value of the match looks to be the Overs though, $1.67 is too high.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 4
Western Sydney 0
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.39
Western Sydney $3.27
Draw $3.62
Market Price:
Wellington $2.80 Ladbrokes
Western Sydney $2.60 Unibet
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.73
Western Sydney $2.37
Market Price:
Wellington $1.95 Ladbrokes
Western Sydney $1.92 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $4.13
Over $1.32
Market Price:
Under $2.25 Ubet
Over $1.67 Sportsbet
Value: Wellington/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67
Wellington – Head to Head – $2.80
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $1.95
Melbourne Victory v Perth Glory
Saturday 13 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
On Saturday night Melbourne Victory will try and rally themselves after a couple of poor performances when they come up against Perth at AAMI Park. Melbourne Victory had to travel to New Zealand on Wednesday and disappointed once again. They took a 1-0 lead in the first half, but couldn’t play the full 90 minutes out, and ended up losing 2-1. For the majority of this season they’ve been below par you’d have to say. To put things into perspective, Sydney, who they played in the Grand Final last season, has nearly twice the amount of points that Melbourne Victory has so far. Perth didn’t do much either when they hosted Melbourne City last week. It’s hard to make too many excuses for them; they were simply outplayed throughout the majority of the match. While they did get some chances, they could never convert them. Obviously Melbourne Victory should be winning this on paper, but the three-day back up from playing in New Zealand is a huge concern for me. For that reason I have to have a nibble at Perth at the $6.50, it just seems a crazy price.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 2
Perth 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.97
Perth $4.14
Draw $3.98
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.61 William Hill
Perth $6.50 Bet365
Draw $4.50 Sportsbet, Ubet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.48
Perth $3.10
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.20 Ladbrokes
Perth $4.60 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.98
Over $1.50
Market Price:
Under $2.60 Bet365
Over $1.58 Sportsbet
Value: Perth – Head to Head – $6.50
Perth – Draw No Bet – $4.60
Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne City
Sunday 14 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
Sunday arvo at Bluetongue Stadium sees Central Coast and Melbourne City fighting it out in a match were I’m giving the underdog a bit of a sniff. On Tuesday Central Coast played Newcastle at Hunter Stadium. Unsurprisingly they went down, the final score being 2-0. I don’t think you can take too much out of their performance though, Newcastle is a clear class above, and at home, they were never going to be touched. Their previous match was a draw against Melbourne Victory on the road, which is good enough to be competitive here. Melbourne City looked strong in their 2-0 win away to Perth. It’s never an easy road trip that one, but went across and did it with ease. They now look to be the clear third best team so far this season, and I’m sure they’ll now be hunting for Newcastle. Back to back away matches is never easy, but Melbourne City has the class to get all three points again this week. The real value of the match looks to be in the Over/Under market though. I’m pretty confident on the Overs, and at $1.75 I think you’re getting way over the true odds.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 0
Melbourne City 4
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $3.47
Melbourne City $2.21
Draw $3.86
Market Price:
Central Coast $3.80 Unibet, Ubet
Melbourne City $2.00 William Hill
Draw $3.65 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.57
Melbourne City $1.64
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.85 Unibet
Melbourne City $1.46 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.22
Over $1.45
Market Price:
Under $2.20 Sportsbet
Over $1.75 Ubet
Value: Central Coast/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75
Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $2.85
Central Coast – Head to Head – $3.80
Adelaide United v Sydney FC
Sunday 14 January, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
Last game of Round 16 is Adelaide vs Sydney, a match that might not be as straightforward as it first seems. On Wednesday Adelaide travelled to Western Sydney, and while they definitely had a chance going into the match, they were the clear underdog. After going behind in the second half I thought it was all over for them, but to their credit they fought back and Stamatelopoulos scored, tying things up for them. A draw from that fixture isn’t too bad in my books. Sydney, I get sick of writing the same things every week, but they are just consistently dominate. In Round 15 they travelled to Brisbane and easily disposed of them 3-0. Sydney probably should be winning this without too much of a sweat, but big back to back road trips is of some concern. I think everyone keeps forgetting how good Adelaide have been playing this season; they’re fourth on the table and they deserve it. I think they could be worth a little throw at the stumps here, will stick to the Draw No Bet market though to play it safe.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 0
Sydney 4
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $4.51
Sydney $1.93
Draw $3.86
Market Price:
Adelaide $4.80 Unibet
Sydney $1.83 Sportsbet
Draw $3.85 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $3.34
Sydney $1.43
Market Price:
Adelaide $3.65 Unibet
Sydney $1.36 Ladbrokes
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.05
Over $1.95
Market Price:
Under $2.10 William Hill
Over $1.82 Ubet
Value: Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $3.65
