Best Value
Western Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90
Lately I much prefer the Over/Under markets to the Head to Head markets, so my two best value bets of the week are those bet types. The best of the round comes up on New Years Day in what will probably be a cracking match between Western Sydney and Melbourne City. $1.90 for Over 2.5 Goals is pretty rare in the A-League, and I know Western Sydney have one of the lowest scoring rates in the competition, but Overs should still be the clear favourite.
Next Best Value
Melbourne Victory/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82
Another game, another Overs bet, and this time it’s in the Melbourne Victory/Newcastle fixture. You have to go back nine weeks to the last time a Newcastle game didn’t go over 2.5 goals, that pretty much says it all. Get on, $1.82 is a luxury.
1st: Western Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90
2nd: Melbourne Victory/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82
3rd: Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.75
4th: Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.70
Melbourne Victory v Newcastle Jets
Friday 29 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Round 13 kicks off with a big match between Melbourne Victory and Newcastle. Melbourne Victory had the big Melbourne Derby last week and to say that they got lucky is an understatement. After a hard fought, back and forth battle for the entire game the result looked certain to end in 0-0. But in the dying seconds of injury time they won a penalty (deserved, but wasn’t a goal scoring opportunity). Milligan stepped up to the spot and converted, as you’d expect, giving them the most unlikely of wins. Newcastle, how good are these guys going, they’re now seven points clear of third on the table. Their latest three points came at the hand of Western Sydney. On paper you’d think this would be a decent sort of match, but Newcastle had other ideas. From the get go they poured on the pressure, by the time the final whistle was blown they had fired in 21 shots, 4 of which hit the back of the net, giving them the easy 4-0 win. At home you’ve got to give the nod to Melbourne Victory, but by no means can you write off Newcastle, they’ve been deadly lately. The head to head prices are just not there for me, so I’m heading to the Over/Under market. I think Overs is an incredible price here and that’s what I’ll be playing.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Newcastle 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.11
Newcastle $3.72
Draw $3.89
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.10 Ubet
Newcastle $3.55 Unibet
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.57
Newcastle $2.77
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.52 Ubet
Newcastle $2.65 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.29
Over $1.44
Market Price:
Under $2.11 Sportsbet
Over $1.82 Ubet
Value: Melbourne Victory/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82
Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar
Saturday 30 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
Saturday afternoon we head across to Hindmarsh Stadium for Adelaide and Brisbane. This is a bit of a quick backup for Adelaide as they only played on Tuesday, it shouldn’t be too much of a struggle though as that was at home too, so no travel for them. It was against Central Coast, and as you’d expect they got the result they were looking for. It wasn’t as easy as you might think, but after scoring an early goal they managed to hold that 1-0 score line for the rest of the match. Even though they don’t seem to have been too impressive thus far, they’ve worked their way up to fourth on the table, which is incredible compared to last year’s efforts. Brisbane was utterly disappointing when at home to Perth in Round 12. They went into the match as a heavy favourite, and after leading at halftime that looked justified. A couple goals in quick succession to Perth put an end to that though, leaving Brisbane with a 2-1 loss. Adelaide are the clear pick here, I think they’re a flip of the coin chance. Market has them pretty similar ($2.05) though; I’d need $2.20 before I jump in so at this stage it’s a sit out for me.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 3
Brisbane 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.99
Brisbane $4.17
Draw $3.88
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.05 William Hill
Brisbane $3.75 Ubet
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.48
Brisbane $3.09
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.50 Ladbrokes
Brisbane $2.70 Ubet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.43
Over $1.70
Market Price:
Under $2.08 Sportsbet
Over $1.82 Ubet
Value: No value
Sydney FC v Perth Glory
Saturday 30 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium
Saturday night will surely we a one-sided affair when Sydney host Perth. Sydney, what more can I say, they are so damn good. Last week they were playing over in New Zealand against Wellington, which is not the easiest of road trips. Do you think that stopped them for a second though, nope. Once again they piled on the goals, running away with a 4-1 victory, headlined by Bobo who bagged a hat trick. They’re now five points clear at the top of the table, and back-to-back premierships is looking like a certainty. Perth was actually pretty impressive last week, they were on the road to Brisbane, and we all know how bad they are away. But even after falling behind in the first half they fought back with a pair of goals in the last 15 minutes to take the honours. Sydney probably just wins, they’re going to slip up one day, but who knows when that will be. At $1.47 Sydney is too short for me, I’d suggest either staying out or maybe a tiny bet on Perth in the Draw No Bet market at around $6.40.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 5
Perth 0
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.53
Perth $7.06
Draw $4.88
Market Price:
Sydney $1.47 Ubet
Perth $8.00 Bet365
Draw $5.00 TopBetta, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.22
Perth $5.62
Market Price:
Sydney $1.15 Ladbrokes
Perth $6.40 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.72
Over $1.58
Market Price:
Under $2.40 Ubet
Over $1.63 Sportsbet
Value: Perth – Draw No Bet – $6.40
Perth – Head to Head – $8.00
Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix
Sunday 31 December, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
I think most people will spend their New Years Eve doing things other than watching this football match, but hopefully we can make some money out of it anyway. Central Coast were away to Adelaide last week, and while competitive, after going down 1-0 early in the piece, they could never quite muster that equalizing goal, leaving the final score at 1-0. To be honest that’s pretty much the result you’d expect from that fixture, a one-goal loss, so you can’t really take too much away from them. Wellington had the dreaded task of Sydney last week, and as you can imagine it wasn’t pretty for them. Sydney scored four goals on them, while they could only find the net once. That result wouldn’t of surprised anyone I’m sure. A tough game to split the teams, but I think Central Coast have a little advantage over Wellington. At $3.70 Wellington actually looks a good shout, as I mentioned above this is an open match, so an upset wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. Overs at $1.70 looks a solid play too.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 2
Wellington 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.43
Wellington $3.17
Draw $3.67
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.00 Everywhere
Wellington $3.70 Ubet
Draw $3.75 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.77
Wellington $2.31
Market Price:
Central Coast $1.50 Ladbrokes
Wellington $2.70 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.92
Over $1.52
Market Price:
Under $2.18 Sportsbet
Over $1.70 Bet365, Ubet
Value: Wellington – Head to Head – $3.70
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.70
Central Coast/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
Western Sydney Wanderers v Melbourne City
Monday 1 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium
The last game of the round comes on the first day of 2018, and it’s a cracker of a game to kick off the New Year, Western Sydney and Melbourne City at ANZ Stadium. Western Sydney got absolutely trounced last week against Newcastle. I thought they’d be up against it, but the final score of 4-0 looks to be well below their real ability. I know Newcastle is on the upward spiral but just the week before Western Sydney won 2-0 on the road. I think you’ve got to forgive them one last time, but then you see that they’ve still only won two games this season you start to worry about them. Melbourne City was a little hard done by last week, it was the big Derby and after a cracker ninety minutes the teams were going to share the spoils. But a silly foul from Bouzanis on the edge of the box, from a non-goal threating position, cost them the game. The penalty was awarded, and converted, giving Melbourne Victory the 1-0 win. I think Western Sydney could bounce back, but this is the last time I trust them against a top side. I’m happy with the $2.75 available, but I think the $1.90 for Over 2.5 goals is the real play in the match; I have that as the best value of the whole round.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 1
Melbourne City 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.37
Melbourne City $3.27
Draw $3.67
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.75 Ubet
Melbourne City $2.60 Everywhere
Draw $3.40 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.73
Melbourne City $2.38
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.98 Ubet
Melbourne City $1.86 Sportsbet, Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.04
Over $1.49
Market Price:
Under $2.00 William Hill
Over $1.90 Ubet
Value: Western Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90
Western Sydney – Head to Head – $2.75
Western Sydney – Draw No Bet – $1.98
