Best Value
Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90
The best value in the games this round looks to be in the Over/Under markets, and the best of those is the $1.90 for Overs in the Sydney/Melbourne City game. If anyone watched the Sydney Derby last week you’ve have little doubt that this would fly over 2.5 goals. They’ve been in dominate form and even if Melbourne City don’t post a single goal this will still probably go Overs.
Next Best Value
Perth/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.59
The next pick from Round 11 is the Overs in the Perth/Wellington game. Both these teams’ defenses aren’t the strongest so it should be a goal-fest. Three plus goals comes so often when these teams play, hence the short price, but I think the Overs should be rated substantially shorter, in the realms of $1.32.
1st: Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90
2nd: Perth/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.59
3rd: Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.95
4th: Perth – Head to Head – $2.00
Sydney FC v Melbourne City
Friday 15 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Sydney Football Stadium
Sydney are in the headline match again this week, this time up against Melbourne City at home on Friday night. Sydney are coming off one of the most impressive performances of the season with their utter domination of Western Sydney in the Sydney Derby last Saturday. They won an astonishing 5-0, and even though they didn’t hold much of possession, they had all the “real” chances in the match. They’re now five points clear at the top of the table, and at this stage looking next to untouchable. Melbourne City were far from impressive, but got the job against Central Coast last week. They were at home to Central Coast, so I thought they’d come away with a relatively easy win, but they had to fight all the way to the final whistle to earn their 1-0 victory. Sydney should be just winning this, even though Melbourne City is a formidable opponent, if the two teams that played last week turn up again Sydney will win this by three goals. I’ve got Sydney marked at $1.65, which means I need $1.80 to get invested, and at this stage that’s not available, so I’ll be sitting out, but keeping an eye out in case they drift enough. On the flipside, the $1.90 for Over 2.5 Goals looks great shopping, as mentioned above I think Sydney will cover that on their own. Best value of the round.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 4
Melbourne City 1
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.65
Melbourne City $5.87
Draw $4.50
Market Price:
Sydney $1.70 William Hill, TopBetta
Melbourne City $5.10 Unibet
Draw $3.80 Luxbet, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.28
Melbourne City $4.57
Market Price:
Sydney $1.30 Ladbrokes
Melbourne City $3.85 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.17
Over $1.46
Market Price:
Under $1.97 Luxbet
Over $1.90 Unibet
Value: Sydney/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90
Newcastle Jets v Adelaide United
Saturday 16 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
The surprise packet of the season thus far is Newcastle and they get back to home this week when they host Adelaide. You just can’t knock Newcastle, another strong win in Round 10 for them, this time on the road to Perth, which is never an easy away match. They fell behind early too, but somehow managed to score two goals in the last five minutes of the match to pinch the three points away from Perth at the death. Adelaide is another team that most have probably underestimated (me included). Last week they were on the road to Melbourne Victory and they came away with a 2-1 win. I was shocked to see that their consistent form as pulled them up to fourth on the ladder, and incredible performance compared to their form of last season. I’ve got a bit of an opinion of Newcastle and think they might have what it takes to be one of the top sides this season, and if that’s the case they need to be landing the three points from these kinds of home matches, and I think they will. Market is pretty much bang on with my ratings, I want $2.20 to put my hard earned on Newcastle, but I doubt we’ll see that. Might be a “sit back on the couch and enjoy with no money riding” kind of match.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 2
Adelaide 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.00
Adelaide $4.14
Draw $3.88
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.97 Ubet
Adelaide $3.75 Everywhere
Draw $3.75 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.48
Adelaide $3.07
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.44 Unibet
Adelaide $3.01 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.17
Over $1.85
Market Price:
Under $2.08 Luxbet
Over $1.75 Luxbet, Ubet
Value: No value
Central Coast Mariners v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 16 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
This “prime time” match won’t be grabbing the audience the Saturday night matches usually get, but there’s still money to be won (or lost) so let’s have a look. The very disappointing Western Sydney are away to Central Coast at Bluetongue Stadium in what should be a tight match. Another team I’ve probably underestimated is Central Coast this season, they’re no world beaters, but they’ve improved significantly on anything they’ve done in recent seasons. Now they didn’t manage to get anything out of their trip down south against Melbourne City last week, but they put up a hell of a fight. They finished the match with 58% of the possession, so that’s a solid stat to be winning, the issue was they only got two shots on target for the whole game. They went down 1-0 in the end, they possibly deserved to get a point out of the match, but they do need to improve in the final third of the pitch. How bad were Western Sydney last week, it was the Sydney Derby at their home ground, so the stakes don’t get much higher than that. I know Sydney is a class above every team at the moment, but last week against Western Sydney they looked four classes above. Western Sydney lost 5-0, which should never happen in the A-League, let alone when playing at home. Tough match to split these teams, I’m leaning towards Central Coast with the home ground advantage. There isn’t much value in the market at this stage, and I’m not desperate to get involved, if either team drifts drastically then maybe, but most likely I’ll be keeping my cash in my wallet for this one.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 1
Western Sydney 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.52
Western Sydney $2.96
Draw $3.76
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.70 Everywhere
Western Sydney $2.50 Everywhere
Draw $3.60 William Hill, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.85
Western Sydney $2.18
Market Price:
Central Coast $1.96 Unibet
Western Sydney $1.84 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.49
Over $1.67
Market Price:
Under $2.15 William Hill, Luxbet
Over $1.70 Ubet
Value: No value
Perth Glory v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday 16 December, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
We’ve got another late Saturday night match over in Perth this Saturday, this time they’re hosting Wellington. Last week Perth disappointed me when they lost 2-1 to Newcastle, but I think I haven’t been respecting Newcastle as much as I should be, they might be the real deal this year. Perth looked the winners for over an hour too after scoring early in the match. Somehow it all got too much for them though and they conceded twice in the last five minutes to throw the match away. Wellington probably over-performed for what was expected of their road trip to Brisbane when they came away with one point. It wasn’t the most interesting match as a spectator as it was a 0-0 draw but Wellington should be happy with the result. It still hasn’t got them off the bottom of the table though. If Perth don’t win this they’re in some serious trouble, I’ll let them off the hook for last week’s loss but they should be getting all three points out of this. I’m more than happy to take the even money about them proving me right too, it’s more than generous in my eyes. Another game where the Overs is looking great value, and a nice side play to Perth.
Last 5 games:
Perth 3
Wellington 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $1.83
Wellington $4.87
Draw $4.05
Market Price:
Perth $2.00 Everywhere
Wellington $3.65 Ubet
Draw $3.75 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.38
Wellington $3.67
Market Price:
Perth $1.50 Ladbrokes
Wellington $2.65 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $4.17
Over $1.32
Market Price:
Under $2.55 Ubet
Over $1.59 Sportsbet
Value: Perth/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.59
Perth – Head to Head – $2.00
Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.50
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory
Sunday 17 December, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
The round finishes up in Queensland on Sunday night as Brisbane and Melbourne Victory go head to head. Brisbane were utterly disappointing in Round 10, not only did they not get the win from their home fixture against Wellington, the match finished in a 0-0 “bore draw”. They’re struggling to get their game off the ground this season, and as we’re approaching Round 11 they really need to start turning things around, two wins from ten matches isn’t good enough from this side. How times have changed from Melbourne Victory too, last season they were competitive in a Grand Final, this season they’re not even in a finals position. Their game last week against Adelaide epitomized their season thus far. Being at home as well, last year this would have been a lock for them, this year all they could manage was a 2-1 loss. They need to turn things around yesterday, but watching their play I don’t know if they can. I think Brisbane can get the better of Melbourne Victory here, you’ve got to take them on a little bit of faith coming off last weeks’ effort, but Melbourne Victory has done little to impress me so far. $2.70 is a reasonable price for Brisbane too, but I prefer the $1.95 with the money back for the draw as a safety net.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 1
Melbourne Victory 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $2.21
Melbourne Victory $3.54
Draw $3.78
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.70 Ubet, Bet365
Melbourne Victory $2.60 William Hill, Unibet
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.63
Melbourne Victory $2.60
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.95 Ladbrokes, Ubet
Melbourne Victory $1.89 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.49
Over $1.67
Market Price:
Under $2.25 William Hill, Ubet
Over $1.70 Sportsbet
Value: Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.70
Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.95
