It’s getting towards the end of September, which can mean a lot of things, the AFL and NRL Grand Finals, Spring Carnival, NFL, but for some of us it means one thing, that the new A-League season is just around the corner, and Australian soccer fans can’t wait.
The A-League has been getting bigger and better every year and on October 10 the tenth season will get under way, a great accomplishment for something that had a lot of people doubting early on in it’s existence.
Much like any sport in Australia these days, there has be a massive swing in the popularity of betting on them, A-League included, but it can get really hard to make a buck out of it unless you can follow it intently.
I plan on helping readers out with this issue. I’ve followed (and punted) numerous sports over the years and definitely know how hard it can be to find a consistent edge against the bookies.
Last season was my first year of writing previews of the A-League soccer games for TheProfits.com.au and while I found the first half of the season a little tough, I think I really started to find my groove in the second half, consistently posting good results.
Now it’s my second season and I know what I need to try and do to make betting on A-League profitable, and I hope I can do that for myself, as well as anyone who wants to follow.
My main focus is on the Head 2 Head market, as I think I have a real good grip on it, but Over/Under will also have a larger focus this season, as well as a few of the other betting options available.
Each week I’ll provide a preview of each game and which way I see the result going. I’ll then add in the best odds available for each team and any other betting options I’m looking at, followed my rated prices, then highlight where I think the best value in the match is.
Below I’ve got a pre-season review of all the teams, with a small write-up on how they went last season and how I think they’ll go in the upcoming season, including where I rate the team. You’ll notice that there are a few teams that are on the same ratings; hopefully after a few rounds they’ll separate themselves from each other. I’ve also got listed any transfers, both in’s and out’s, the teams have had since last season.
Hopefully you enjoy the read each week and even make a few dollars out of it along the way. I always appreciate feedback, whether it be heckling me after a shocker round, letting me know different things I could be doing to make the write-up more interesting or anything else that pops into your head. Let’s hope we all have a profitable 2014/15 A-League season.
@AL_TheProfits
Adelaide United
2013/14
Another disappointing season for Adelaide United, dropping out in the first week of the finals for a second straight year. They started the season off not too bad, the first month or so I think they were playing to their ability, but then as the season went on their performances started to drop off. It took them till about the midpoint of the season for them to start playing some strong football again. Unfortunately for them it was a little too late, they only managed to scrap into a finals spot, then coming up against Central Coast away in the Elimination Final was too much for them. I started the season with them rated the 4th highest team, they ended the season rated 4th again but that was shared with two others, so really the 4th – 6th rated team.
2014/15
Much like last season, Adelaide United look to have a pretty strong team and appear to have a strong finals chance. They’re one of only a couple of teams where I think the trades they’ve made won’t have too much of an impact of their performance with pretty similar in’s and out’s. I have them ranked in an equal group of 4 teams that I rate 3rd – 6th which should mean they’re in for a good season and I’d be surprised if they didn’t make the finals. They won’t have to change their playing style very much so they really shouldn’t go backwards at all after playing in the finals last year.
Out
Jon McKain
Jake Barker-Daish,
Daniel Bowels
Jacob Melling
Antony Golec
Jeronimo Neumann
In
James Jeggo – Melbourne Victory
Dylan McGowan – Hearts, Scotland
Pablo Sanchez Alberto – Deportivo Lugo, Spain
Craig Goodwin – Newcastle Jets
Brisbane Roar
2013/14
What can you say about Brisbane Roar’s 2013/14 campaign, it was unbelievable. They were clearly the best tem in the competition, and they got the silverware to prove it, winning both the Premiership and the Championship. They won 4 more games than any other team during the regular season and had an astonishing home record, winning over 68% of their games at Suncorp Stadium. I clearly got them wrong, as I had them rated as the 5th – 6th best team at the start of the season, obviously by the end they were ranked number 1.
2014/15
Brisbane would find it very hard to be as good as they were last year and I think the loss of Berisha, amongst others, will bring them back to the pack a little. I still think they have a great side and I have them ranked equal top with one other team. They should be a force again this season, but they’ll have to re-adjust where their goals are going to come as Berisha has been their go to man for a while. Last season he scored more than double the goals then any other player for Brisbane, but with Broich still sending in brilliant balls weekly I’m sure the goals will still come.
Out
Besart Berisha
Diogo Ferreira
Matt Acton
Julius Davies
Ivan Franjic
In
Jamie Young – Hayes & Yeading United, England
Daniel Bowles – Adelaide United
Mensur Kurtishi – FK Shkëndija, Macedonia
Central Coast Mariners
2013/14
I had high hopes for the Mariners last season, starting the season as my top ranked team. That was short lived as the struggled to find the form that I thought they had. The second half of the season was a lot better from them though as they started to play more consistently. They looked like they were going to drop right off but ended up finishing 2nd – 3rd in my ratings, so I probably should be a little easier on them, I just expected more from them throughout the whole season. They’re another team with a great home strike rate, taking all 3 points away from games at Bluetongue Stadium 60% time.
2014/15
I know I rated Central Coast highly last season, and after re-assessing them in the off-season, I have to do the same thing again this year. Towards the end of the last season they were playing some great football and I don’t think the trade period has affected them as much as Brisbane and Western Sydney. The loss of Flores and Sterjovski doesn’t help, but I don’t think it is going to have a crazy effect on the team either. They’ve kept their trades to a minimum, pulling Nash up from the minor leagues and going to Europe to recruit a couple others. I have them on top equal with Brisbane in my ratings, and think they’ll once again have a great season, just like they have done over the past few years.
Out
Marcos Flores
Mile Sterjovski
Justin Pasfield
In
Malick Mané – Loan – IFK Göteborg, Sweden
Matthew Nash – Bonnyrigg, NSW Premier League
Richard Vernes – Loan – Budapest Honved, Hungary
Melbourne City
2013/14
Melbourne Heart as they were known this time last year had a pretty average year and one to forget. They only managed to win 6 games for the whole season, and only 1 of those was when they were on the road. It wasn’t that much of a surprise to be honest, I had them ranked 8th when the season kicked off, and for me they finished as the 8th – 9th rated team. One of the small glimmers of light last season for fans was when they handed down a 4-0 smashing of across town rivals Melbourne Victory.
2014/15
So here is the club that everyone is interested in. After being bought out by Manchester City connections, a lot of money is being pumped into this club who severely struggled last season. They spent 17 days in the UK during our winter at Manchester City’s first class training facilities. But the main difference in the club from last season is the recruiting they’ve done. They’ve brought in 10 players, including the Spanish star Villa on a 10-match loan and Duff who comes from the EPL’s Fulham. They’ve jumped right up in the pecking order in my ratings; I almost had them in 3rd position by themselves, but have now lumped them into that same group of 4 in the 3rd – 6th bracket. I would be shocked if they don’t make the finals, they’ve now got a nice team, as long as the gel together they’ll go a long way this season.
Out
Harry Kewell
Orlando Engelaar
Aziz Behich
Patrick Gerhardt
Sam Mitchinson
David Vrankovic
Jeremy Walker
In
Aaron Mooy – Western Sydney
Connor Chapman – Newcastle Jets
James Brown – Newcastle Jets
Jacob Melling – Adelaide United
David Villa – 10-Game Loan – NYCFC, USA
Damien Duff – Fulham, England
Robert Koren – Hull City, England
Paulo Retre – Youth Squad
Marc Marino – Youth Squad
Erik Paartalu – Muangthong United, Thailand
Melbourne Victory
2013/14
Melbourne Victory should be pretty happy with the season they had. While at times they did struggle to hold form, they pulled out some big wins when they had to. I started the season thinking they were the 3rd best team, and they ended up finishing in that 4th – 6th bracket with Adelaide and Sydney. They got knocked out in the Semi Final just like the year before, but they were coming up against a white hot Brisbane, which was a hard task for any team last year. They had a solid enough home record, winning 57% of the games they hosted. While they have been playing good, fans will start to demand some better and more consistent form from their “Boys in Blue”.
2014/15
While Victory made it to the second week of Finals last season, I think they’ll have their work cut out for them this season and can see them dropping a little. Picking up Berisha is no doubt a massive coup for them and he’s sure to bring quite a few goals, but I think their losses outweigh the gain they get from him. Losing Rogic and Troisi from those attacking midfield positions will really hurt them, along with Troare who often made nice runs down the wings from defense. I have them rated as the 7th team in the league, which is a significant drop, but I think the middle of the table will be so close it will be easy for a decent team to miss a finals spot, and that could easily include Melbourne Victory.
Out
Pablo Contreras
James Jeggo
Adama Traore
Francesco Stella
James Troisi
Tom Rogic
In
Besart Berisha – Brisbane Roar
Carl Valeri – Ternana Calcio, Italy
Matthieu Delpierre – FC Utrecht, Netherlands
Daniel Georgievski – Steaua Bucuresti, Romania
Newcastle Jets
2013/14
Newcastle showed me up a little last season, I had them ranked as the 2nd worst team and I ended up having them as the 7th best team, at times they played even better than that. They hit their peak around round 20 and then held that form through to the end of the season. The missed out on a finals position by less than 1 game, which with the team they had I think is a really good performance. One of the surprising stats about Newcastle last season is that they had the second best away record in the league, and at a 38% win rate is actually higher than when they hosted games, something you rarely see.
2014/15
I’m sorry to say that things don’t look good for Newcastle. They weren’t the best team last season and the loss of Taggart is huge. The young star scored 16 goals last season, the next highest by a Jets player was 3. They are some big shoes to fill, and while Newcastle has done the right thing by recruiting a wide variety of players, I don’t know where those goals are going to come from now. Heskey, Gibbs and Zadkovic vacating is also going to hurt them. They’ve picked up Flores, who seems to play for a different team every year, but he’s getting older, and doesn’t have the sprint he once did. They’ve picked up players from Vietnam, USA, China, Ecuador and South Korea, so hopefully they can uncover a hidden gem there. I’ve got them slipping a little this season and have them ranked 8th – 9th. I’d be happy for them to prove me wrong, but it’s hard to see that happening.
Out:
Emile Heskey
Connor Chapman
James Brown
Michael Bridges
Ruben Zadkovic
Joey Gibbs
Josh Mitchell
Zenon Caravella
Adam Taggart
Josh Brilliante
In
Adrian Madaschi – Jeju United, South Korea
Joshua Barresi – Western Sydney
Marcos Flores – Central Coast
Edson Montano – Loan – Club Barcelona SC, Ecuador
Jonny Steele – New York Red Bulls, USA
Sam Gallagher – Hanoi T&T, Vietnam
Jeronimo Neumann – Adelaide United
Bill Celeski – Liaoning Whowin, China
Allan Welsh – Croydon Kings, Premier League SA
Perth Glory
2013/14
It’s hard to paint a pretty picture of Perth Glory. I had them in that “pushing for a finals” position at the start of the season ranking them 7th but they barely showed up last year. The 8th they finished on the ladder is a little kind in my opinion, if one of their draws they had was a loss instead they would of finished rock bottom, which is exactly where I rated them, last. They won only 7 games for the season, and 6 of those came at home when teams have had to fly all the way over to Western Australia. If they were an east coast team I think their record would be even worse. At least they gave their fans that went to their home games something to cheer for.
2014/15
After coming off a tough season I think Perth Glory may have a bit more to look forward to this season. They’ve lost Smeltz, but gaining Hersi, Zadkovic, Keogh and others slightly outweighs their loss I think. They always have the added advantage of teams finding it hard to travel over to Perth and now with their new recruits I think they may have a bit more luck when they’re on the road. I have them on a slightly higher rating than last season, but it still doesn’t raise their position in my overall rankings as I have them ranked 8th – 9th. They’ll once again have a hard time making the finals, but at home I think they can once again be very competitive.
Out
Jacob Burns
Shane Smeltz
Adrian Zahra
Ryan Edwards
Darvydas Sernas
In
Youssouf Hersi – Western Sydney
Diogo Ferreira – Brisbane Roar
Dino Djublic – Al Wahda, UAE
Ruben Zadkovic – Newcastle Jets
Danny Vukovic – Vegalta Sendai, Japan
Andy Keogh – Blackpool, England
Mitch Nichols – Loan – Cerezo Osaka – Japan
Jordan Thurtell – AIS
Richard Garcia – Minnesota United, USA
Sydney FC
2013/14
I was pretty impressed with Sydney FC last season. While they did start off a little slow, the second half of the season was pretty strong from them. They turned Allianz Stadium into a little bit of a fortress, winning over 64% of their home games, which for a team that only won 42% of their total games, is pretty good. The flip side of that is that they’re obviously not the best road team in the league, but they weren’t disgraceful. When the season kicked off I had them ranked 5th – 6th and they finished up in that group that was 4th – 6th, so perhaps a slight improvement. I liked them because I think you know what you get when Sydney play, and their best and their worst isn’t that far apart. They bailed out in the first week of the finals, but travelling down to Melbourne to face Victory, it’s not such a surprise.
2014/15
Over the break Sydney have lost quite a few players, most obviously Del Piero who was a star of the A-League last season, but despite losing the Italian I think they’re in for another good season. They’ve picked up Smeltz, Ibini and Brosque who can all have big influences on the game, enough so that I don’t think they are at any loss post Del Piero. I have them as another team in that group ranked 3rd – 6th, so finals again looks highly probably for the Sky Blues. If they can have a winning record at Allianz Stadium like they did last year, a finals spot looks but a lock for them.
Out
Alessandro Del Piero
Terry McFlynn
Richard Garcia
Ranko Despotovic
Mitch Mallia
Marc Warren
Joel Chianese
Blake Powell
Matt Thompson
In
Shane Smeltz – Perth Glory
Bernie Ibini – Loan – Shanghai Dongya, China
Alex Brosque – Al Ain, UAE
Alex Gersbach – AIS
Marc Janko – Trabzonspor, Turkey
Wellington Phoenix
2013/14
Wellington is another one of these weird teams that won more games on the road last season than at home, especially weird for a team that other teams have to travel so far to get to them. Their home record could be a little skewed by them not just using Westpac Stadium for every home game last season. They suffered some big losses throughout the season too, having clearly the worst goal difference in the league. On the plus side I started the year with them being clearly the worst ranked team, by the end of the season they managed to work their way up a little and they finished 8th – 9th. At one stage, about 6 weeks from the end of the season I actually had them ranked in equal 4th, but that petered off a little towards the end of the season. I think they did pretty well with what they had to work with.
2014/15
Poor Wellington, they didn’t have a great year last year and I think they’re going to slip even further this season. They’ve lost Hernandez and Hysegems without picking up all that much, and with Melbourne City and Perth Glory both looking to have improved, it doesn’t bode well for the New Zealander’s. I have them the lowest rated team, so I’ve obviously got them ranked 10th. I’d love for them to show me up all pull something out of the bag that I don’t see coming, but I just don’t think they are capable of that.
Out
Carlos Hernandez
Leo Bertos
Stein Hysegems
Lucas Pantelis
Luke Adams
In
Alejandro Gorrin – Sunderland Reserves, England
Nathan Burns – Incheon United, South Korea
Roly Bonevacia – Ajax Academy, Netherlands
Tom Doyle – Team Wellington, NZ
Western Sydney Wanderers
2013/14
There was always going to be a lot of pressure on the Wanderers after their amazing rookie season the year before. So did they under perform, I don’t think so, I started them off 2nd in my ratings and they finished up 2nd – 3rd. They were consistent throughout most of the season and had a pretty good record both at home and away. They easily took care of Central Coast in the Semi Final and pushed Brisbane a long way in the Final. Brisbane got the better of them in the end, in Extra Time, but it was still a strong performance. All in all, they couldn’t complain with their sophomore year.
2014/15
Western Sydney is heading into their third season after 2 stellar years. I think that it get’s harder for them now though. They’ve lost a number of crucial players from their list including Ono, Hersi and Mooy. I think they’re a step below the top 2 teams, which over the last couple of years they’ve owned that position. They’re the other team in that group that I rank in the 3rd – 6th bracket. I think they are now back in that group where they should be able to hold onto a finals position, but if they don’t play consistently they need to watch themselves. Their ability could be similar to what they had last season, but with those loses, especially Ono, I don’t see them being quite as good.
Out
Shinji Ono
Youssouf Hersi
Aaron Mooy
Michael Beauchamp
Jerome Polenz
Adam D’Apuzzo
Jerrad Tyson
Tahj Minniecon
Dean Heffernan
Joshua Barresi
In
Dean Bouzanis – Carlisle United, England
Antony Golec – Adelaide United
Vitor Saba – Brescia Calcio, Italy
Brendan Hamill – Seongnam Ilhwa, South Korea
Romeo Castelen – RKC Waalwijk, Netherlands
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