It was an exciting first week of the A-League finals, it was the Elimination Finals so it was do or die for all of teams involved. On Friday night we had a replay of a game from the week before, Brisbane and Melbourne Victory, which ended in a 0-0 all result. The only difference this week was the game was being played up in Brisbane, giving them the home ground advantage. After about 80 minutes it was still 0-0 and it looked like it was going to be an exact replay of the week before, but a lot changed in those last 10 minutes. Berisha found the back of the net, as he has done so many times before in finals and Melbourne Victory thought they’d booked themselves a spot in the Semi Finals. At the restart they weren’t focused enough though, as Brisbane bounced back and scored within minutes. It didn’t finish there though, before the celebrating had stopped Broiche slotted a beautiful goal from a corner to keep Brisbane’s Championship dream alive.

The Sunday game was a little less eventful, Melbourne City was hosting Perth and the home side was going into it with the expectation that they would just win. They didn’t let themselves or their supporters down with a relatively comfortable 2-0 win. All honours have to go with Fornaoli though, both goals were his, and the season’s most prolific striker showed why he is so good at what he does. If he gets a proper chance at goal, he usually buries it, and even when he only gets a half chance at goal, he’s still a chance at scoring. He’s second goal is a thing of beauty, if you haven’t seen it yet look it up.

We’re into the Semi Finals now, so we see last week’s two winners facing off with the two topsides from the season. The matches are Adelaide/Melbourne City and Western Sydney/Brisbane.

Both home sides look to have a significant edge over their counterparts, but that makes sense as they were the two best sides over the 28 week long season. I think the closer of the two matches will be Western Sydney and Brisbane, hopefully Brisbane can make it interesting, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Western Sydney are going to come out “guns blazing”.

Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 204 selections; I have had 79 winners, 105 losses and 20 pushes. This equates to (at betting to win 1 unit) -5.96 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -3.05%.

This is the second last preview for the season, I’m going to miss doing these each week, hope you’ve enjoyed the write-ups, and let’s hope we can get a little more cash over the next two weeks.

@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Adelaide United – Head to Head – $2.08.
2nd:    Adelaide United/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68.
3rd:    Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $1.51.
4th:    Western Sydney/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82.

Adelaide United v Melbourne City

Friday 22 April, 7:45pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

The first Semi Final is on Friday night and we see the return of the recently crowned premiers Adelaide, taking on Melbourne City, who was a convincing winner last week. After finishing the season on the top of the table Adelaide earned a week off last week so we have to go back to April 8 for their last match. Coincidently that game was against Melbourne City, only difference was that they were on the road that time. They were very impressive, winning the game 2-0, and while the stats were pretty evenly split, finding the back of the net is the name of the game. High on winning the Premiers Plate, and with the week off I’m sure they will be firing on all cylinders this week. Melbourne City hosted Perth in their Elimination Final and came through it with flying colours. It was a 2-0 win thanks to Fornaroli and bagged both goals, continuing he’s incredible form. Being favourite I expected a strong performance, and they didn’t let me down, dominating the game including the shots at goal. It’s really hard to see Melbourne City turning the tables on Adelaide after their match-up a fortnight ago. Adelaide won that match, they’re now at home and they’ve had a week off, everything points to Adelaide securing a spot in the Grand Final. Someone at Unibet could get fired I think, they’ve put up $2.08 for Adelaide, they should clearly be odds-on, and I’m almost positive that they will start shorter than their current quote. The $1.51 with money back for a draw seems like “money for jam” to me.  Over 2.5 Goals looks an attractive option too in this fixture.

Last 10 games:    
Adelaide                4
Melbourne City     3
Draw                     3

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide              $1.72
Melbourne City    $5.34
Draw                    $4.30

Market Price:    
Adelaide              $2.08 Unibet
Melbourne City    $3.50 Bet365
Draw                    $3.70 Sportsbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Adelaide              $1.32
Melbourne City    $4.10

Market Price:    
Adelaide              $1.51 Unibet
Melbourne City    $2.63 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                $3.34
Over                  $1.43

Market Price:  
Under                $2.25 Unibet
Over                  $1.68 Palmerbet

Value:         Adelaide United – Head to Head – $2.08.
Adelaide United/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.68.
Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $1.51.

Western Sydney Wanderers v Brisbane Roar

Sunday 24 April, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium

We will find out who our other Grand Final player is after this exciting match between Western Sydney and Brisbane. We have to go back a couple of weeks to look at Western Sydney’s last game after they finished second on the table and got a ticket straight to the Semi Finals. In that game they were up against Wellington, and while they did start a short priced favourite, it was away, so it wasn’t going to be a complete walk in the park for them.  Santalab came to fore again for them, netting a couple of goals in the first half to give them a nice lead going into half time. They sat on that lead until the final whistle and that was enough to lift them up to second spot on the table, only one point behind the premiers Adelaide. Brisbane was hosting Melbourne Victory in the Elimination Final in what looked like a pretty one-sided affair on paper to me. I was surprised that they struggled throughout and it was still sitting at 0-0 at the 80-minute mark. Berisha then broke through for Melbourne Victory and it looked all over for Brisbane. Only two minutes later McKay came back with an equaliser and the match was on again. At that stage everyone assumed it would be going to overtime but Broich had other ideas scoring a goal late in injury time to send Brisbane through to the Semi Finals. This game looks a lot tighter than the game on Friday night, but all things being equal, Western Sydney should be able to pull out a win. At this stage of the campaign, a week off and home ground advantage is massive, and just what Western Sydney need to be playing next week in the Grand Final. Unfortunately there’s next to no value in the Head to Head market at the moment, might be best to just sit this one out at the moment. Thankfully though, Over 2.5 Goals looks a great bet at $1.82, I’ve rated it much shorter.

Last 5 games:    
Western Sydney    3
Brisbane                5
Draw                      2

Head to Head
Rated Price:  
Western Sydney    $2.38
Brisbane                $3.18
Draw                      $3.77

Market Price:  
Western Sydney    $2.25 Everywhere
Brisbane                $3.20 Bet365, Palmerbet
Draw                      $3.50 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Western Sydney    $1.75
Brisbane                $2.34

Market Price: 
Western Sydney    $1.65 Unibet
Brisbane                $2.26 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                   $2.65
Over                     $1.61

Market Price:  
Under                $2.05 Bet365
Over                  $1.82 Sportsbet

Value:         Western Sydney/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.82.