Ace will be previewing all the 2016 Wimbledon action and updating each day with any plays that stand out to him. As always, keep an eye on Twitter for more insights and info!
Day 13
A Kerber vs S Williams
Whilst I know this involves stats from years ago, their last 6 matchups have yielded 39 double faults from 119 games. Which would suggest with betting total set at 21 games, we would expect around 7 double faults. That’s before factoring in nerves associated with a grand slam final. And that Australian Open final had 9 double faults across their 3 sets.
I struggle to get a read on Kerber, so the over 5.5 double faults is all I will touch for tonight
Suggested Bet -> 2 units over 5.5 double faults at $1.82 at Crownbet
Day 11
E Vesnina vs S Williams
Suggested Bet -> 1 unit Vesnina to defeat Williams -> LOSS -1 unit
Suggested Bet -> 2.5 units over 18.5 games -> LOSS -2.5 units
Day 10
M Cilic vs R Federer
Suggested Bet -> 2 units Cilic to defeat Federer at $4 at Sportsbet
Day 8
Another huge day of tennis. Although I do not generally spread myself across a lot of plays, there are a few plays that have really caught my eye tonight. Stay tuned to twitter as I may have another play or two in the next few hours.
N Mahut vs S Querrey
Mahut should be a clear favourite here. These odds are purely as a result of the Djokovic debacle. I really think Mahut is suited in this matchup, as shown by their recent meeting at Hertogenbosch, where Mahut won 6-7 6-4 6-4, with Mahut earning 6 of the matches 8 break point opportunities and the only 2 breaks of the match. Mahut has been ruthless this week, with his only dropped set coming at the hands of Herbet, who won the 3rd set of their meeting after breaking Mahut straight out of a rain delay.
I am very comfortable siding with Mahut here. This is a great price for a small game handicap in the best of 5 set format.
Suggested Bet -> 5 units Mahut -1.5 games at $1.85 at Pinnacle
B Tomic vs L Pouille
I think oddsmakers have been caught up in the Pouille hype just a touch this week. Pouille found himself in round 1 a $2.25 underdog to Copil, and now finds himself only a dollar longer against Bernard Tomic, who is levels and levels above Copil on grass.
Similar to the Mahut play, I think the Del Potro win has been well and truly overvalued. Del Potro himself admitted that he was absolutely exhausted, and struggling to back up after the Wawrinka match and then with the Pouille rain delay. Add fatigue to the fact that he has been trying to hide his backhand, and that spells winners for anyone, including Pouille.
Coming off one of his best performances of the year against Agut, I am more than happy to side again with Tomic here to make his way through to a Wimbledon Quarter Final.
Suggested Bet -> 5 units Tomic -4.5 games at $1.88 at Pinnacle
D Cibulkova vs A Radwanska
Suggested Bet -> 3 units Cibulkova to defeat Radwanska at $2.26 at Pinnacle
Day 7
Here are two matches that stood out to me tonight. I may have another play later, so stay tuned on Twitter!
J Vesely vs J Sousa
Really really enjoying the form of Vesely this week. After defeating Sijsling in straight sets, saving all 7 break points in the process, Vesely then took the prized scalp of Dominic Thiem in straight sets, 7-6 7-6 7-6, playing three exceptional tiebreaks to get the job done. Vesely showed a keeness to get to the net, winning 29 points on 44 occasions.
Sousa was very lucky to scrape by Tursonov in the first round, coming back from 2 sets to 1 down against an underdone opponent, getting the job done 7-5 in the 5th set. The most concerning stat for Sousa in round 1 was winning only 34% of points on his second serve. What saved him? He managed to put 80% of his first serves in, managing to win 74% of them. Sousa himself was found at the net 43 times, winning 30 of them, a solid return the 31st seed. In the 2nd round, Sousa came up against American youngster Novikov, winning 6-4 6-4 3-6 6-4, helped by 46 Novikov unforced errors. Sousa picked up his game on the second serve, however the strength of returner played a key role in that statistical change. Again a 72% of first serves in result was a handy stat for Sousa.
If you look at the last 12 months for Sousa, his 80% of first serves in for round 1 and his 72% of first serves in for round 2 rank 1st and 5th in 1st serve percentage across his 67 matches. Already keen on Vesely before seeing this, it has further strengthened my confidence in Vesely considering these 2 performances were 19% and 12% above his average for the last 52 weeks. If this first serve percentage comes down, Vesely will be able to pressure Sousa regularly on serve. I acknowledge that Vesely isn’t the best return of serve on tour, but the serve of Sousa presents an option for him to attack on a reasonably consistent basis.
I have found myself feeling incredibly confident over two very similar plays. I have been thinking through the pros and cons of each play, and have ultimately come to the following decision.
I really wanted to take the -1.5 set handicap that is available at a number of places between $1.72 (Sportsbet/Ubet), $1.75 (TAB), $1.80 (Luxbet), and Unibet (1.83), however I would feel a little bit dodgy suggesting 5 units on a play at some of the smaller bookmakers on a more uncommon market with lower limits. As a result, I will be suggesting the -4 game handicap on Vesely. I am taking on those Sousa serve statistics, and if he shows me up, then I will cop it on the chin. I have to take him on though.
Suggested Bet -> 5 units Vesely -4 games at $1.89 at Pinnacle
E Vesnina vs J Boserup
Suggested Bet -> 1.5 units Boserup 1st set winner at $3.75 at Bet365
Suggested Bet -> 3 units Boserup over 8.5 games (player B) at $2 at Sportsbet
Day 6
B Tomic vs RB Agut
Very happy with this price for Tomic on grass. I think where Tomic is found out generally is when he comes up against an opponent who has an overwhelming weapon that can exploit his overall movement. I don’t think Agut has that sort of arsenal, especially on grass. Tomic is rouning into some very solid form, and I am more than happy to take this price about Tomic tonight.
Suggested Bet -> 4 units Tomic to defeat Agut at $2.12 at Pinnacle
M Keys vs A Cornet
Suggested Bet -> 2 units Keys -5.5 games at $2.00 at Sportsbet ($1.95 at Pinnacle)
A Kuznetsov vs K Nishikori – Pending from Day 5
Suggested Bet -> 3.5 units Kuznetsov +5.5 games at $2.06 at Pinnacle
Suggested Bet -> 1.5 units Kuznetsov to beat Nishikori at $5.37 at Pinnacle
D Goffin vs D Istomin – Pending from Day 5
Suggested Bet -> 4 units Goffin -5.5 games at $1.80 at Pinnacle ($1.83 Sportsbet, $1.80 Luxbet/William Hill)
Day 5
D Evans vs Roger Federer
Suggested Bet -> 0.5 units Evans to beat Federer at $20.40 at Pinnacle -> LOSS 0.5 units
M Niculescu vs T Baczinsky
Suggested Bet -> 2 units Niculescu 1st set winner at $3.13 at Pinnacle -> WIN +4.26 units
Day 4
D Thiem vs J Vesely
Suggested Bet -> 2.5 units Vesely +6 games at $2.02 at Pinnacle -> WIN +2.55 units
Suggested Bet -> 1 unit Vesely to beat Thiem at $6.35 at Pinnacle -> WIN +5.35 units
J Millman vs B Paire
Suggested Bet -> 4 units Millman +1.5 games at $1.99 at Pinnacle -> WIN +3.96 units
S Crawford vs L Safarova
Suggested Bet -> 1 unit Crawford to defeat Safarova at $5.54-> LOSS -1 unit
Day 3
D Goffin vs E Roger-Vasselin
Very happy to be siding with Goffin here. Roger-Vasselin hasn’t filled me with a great deal of confidence over the last 2 matches (last round of qualifying and round 1). ERV struggled his way past Novak in the final round of qualifying, broken 7 times along the way to a 4 set win, before dropping the first set to Gabashvili 1-6 before winning in 4 sets. ERV found himself either at Deuce on his serve of broken in 9 of his 18 service games, something he simply cannot afford to do against the ever-consistent Goffin. Goffin was clinical in round 1, dropping only 10 points on serve and facing no break points on his way to a 6-2 6-3 6-2 victory over Ward. Goffin produced only 15 unforced error in his 150 point match, so nothing will come easily for ERV today.
To get on top of Goffin, you need to have a first serve that will get you a lot of cheap points. I don’t think ERV has the serve to get him out of trouble more often than not, meaning he may be consistently vulnerable on serve (won only 65% of first serve points vs Gabashivili).
Taking Goffin at the -6.5 game handicap to me is the sensible play here. Look for Goffin to consistently pressure the ERV serve, in what should be a reasonably comfortable win for the world number 11.
Suggested Bet: 3.5 units Goffin -6.5 games vs ERV at $2 at Bet365 ($1.88 at Pinnacle) -> WIN +3.5 units
D Evans vs A Dolgopolov
Wrote up a nice little paragraph on why I like Evans here, and then I lost it. Here are my thoughts in a nutshell:
– I thought Evans would open around $2.65
– Evans best surface, and home court, against Dolgopolov on a surface he has never looked extremely confident on throughout his career.
– If Evans can handle the up-and-down nature of Dolgopolov, he is a sensational chance of causing an upset in front of his home fans, like he has done a few times before.
Suggested Bet -> 2 units Evans to defeat Dolgopolov at $3.30 at Pinnacle -> WIN +4.60 units
A Kuznetsov vs G Muller
Pretty happy to be against Muller here in the 5 set format. To be taken to 15-13 in the 5th set on grass against Giraldo, and have to save match points in the process, is not the type of form I would like to be involved with. I am more than comfortable taking Kuznetsov at the +3 game start. If Muller could only break Giraldo twice in 36 service games, I am happy taking a plus handicap against Muller tonight. I think Kuznetsov can cover this potentially even with a 4 set loss.
Suggested Bet: 3 units Kuznetsov +3 games vs Muller at $1.85 at Pinnacle -> WIN +2.55 units
Day 2
L Saville vs D Novikov
This is the only surface I will find myself backing Luke Saville on in the near future is grass. I honestly thought that Saville was going to open near favourite here against Novikov. I have to play the $2.54 available in the best of 5 format on grass. Happy to make a smaller play here to kick off day 2.
Suggested Bet -> 2 unit bet Saville to defeat Novikov at $2.54 at Pinnacle -> LOSS -2 units
Y Lu vs A Kudryavstev
Lu has been in exceptional form over the last 3 weeks, winning 2 Challenger titles and reaching a final in another (lost of Dustin Brown). Lu looks at home on the grass, and I think the qualifying effort of Kudryavstev has been slightly overvalued (beating Chiudinelli, Nguyen and Pavlasek, none of which are in the league of Lu on Grass courts). If Lu can get on top early, Kudryavstev has form when it comes to dropping his bundle when he is up against the ropes.
I really rate the technically solid Lu on grass, and think he will be far too consistent and far too solid for the Russian here, and should be able to cover the -6.5 game handicap on offer almost everywhere.
Suggested Bet -> 4 unit bet Lu -6.5 games at $1.90 at Pinnacle ($2.00 available at Sportsbet) -> WIN +3.60 units
Review: After a scratchy start, Lu worked his way into the match quite well, breaking in the 10th game of the 1st set, before dominating the second set to have the match under total control. A good, but not great, win for Lu.
Day 1
R Berankis vs M Willis
Here we have the fairytale story of the men’s qualifying draw. Marcus Willis has had to put his job as a tennis coach on hold this week now that he has qualified for the main draw at Wimbledon, and he certainly did it in style. After beating Sugita from a set down, Willis then dispatched Rublev in straight sets before coming from a set down to beat Medvedev in the final round of qualifying in 4 sets. 3 very very solid wins leading into tonight’s match.
Berankis on the other hand is not at home on the grass courts. Berankis’ record on grass across his last 20 matches is 5 wins and 15 losses, and one of his victories was via retirement. It isn’t a happy hunting ground for the Lithuanian.
I am really liking the price available for Willis to beat Berankis in front of his home fans. Before the odds came out I would have been happy with anything over $2.75, so the $3.45 available at Pinnacle is a very nice price in my opinion.
Suggested Bet -> 2 units Willis to defeat Berankis at $3.45 at Pinnacle -> WIN +4.90 units
Review: what a win for Willis! From the first game Willis had the upper hand, and never allowed Berankis to get comfortable in any capacity. Willis was able to save 19 of 20 break points on serve, including coming back from 0/40 at *4-3 in the 3rd set. The fairytale run of Willis is set to continue, likely to face Roger Federer on Wednesday (assuming he beats Pella).
D Ferrer vs D Sela
Sela is the value here. Sure, Ferrer beat Sela in straight sets two weeks ago, but let’s look at the match a little closer:
– Ferrer wins 6-4 6-4
– Ferrer 1st serve % was 71%, Sela was 53%
– Ferrer won 5 of 10 break point chances, Sela won 3 of 13
– Ferrer went on to lose matches to Muller in 3 sets and Seppi in straight sets, Sela went on the beat Herych, Sousa and Becker, before losing to Seppi in a tight 3-setter.
I think Ferrer is a touch vulnerable here. Statistically, I don’t think Sela should be $5.34 or at the +6 game handicap. This is the big upset I can see occurring on day 1.
Suggested Bets -> 1.5 units Sela to defeat Ferrer at $5.34 at Pinnacle, 3 units Sela +6 games at $2.02 at Pinnacle -> LOSS -4.5 units
Review: Insipid from Sela, ultimately winning only 4 games against Ferrer. After earning 13 break point opportunities 2 weeks back against Ferrer, Sela could only muster one today, and that was when he was 2 sets to 0 and a break down already. Ferrer looked to be reading Sela well and his ball striking was exceptional today. It will be interesting to see how he fares for the rest of the fortnight.
A Mannarino vs K Edmund
I have noticed that Mannarino has been quite a popular pick over the last 24 hours or so, but I am keen to side with the home town Edmund in this one. II cast my mind back to just how poorly Mannarino handled the crowd being against him in Australia when he lost to a rusty Sam Groth. With a win over Gilles Simon and pushing Andy Murray to 3 sets, I think Edmund could get the early jump on Mannarino in this one.
I have my doubts over Edmund winning across the full 5 sets, however am happy to take him to win the first set here.
Suggested Bet -> 2 units Edmund to win the first set at $2.30 at Pinnacle -> LOSS -2 Units
Review: Edmund found himself on the back foot from the 3rd game, and couldn’t get back into the set, losing his serve 3 times in a row to drop the opener 2-6. What we did see was Mannarino struggle to serve out the 2nd set, broken when serving at *5-4. He was however gifted a second opportunity to serve out the set with Edmund dropping 4 points in a row from *5-5 40/15. Either way, Mannarino was too strong overall, winning in straight sets.
