Welcome to another edition of Fatigue Faders, where I look at the scheduling of some players and, in conjunction with match analysis, find solid positions where I think it is beneficial to oppose a player that could potentially be tired. We had a good patch fader the winners and finallists from 2 weeks before the Australian Open leading into the week before the Australian Open.
It is a little bit different this week, but I am looking at both men who made the final of the Koblenz Challenger last week – Mats Moraing and Kenny De Schepper, and we are going to be betting AGAINST both of them.
Kenny de schepper
Last Week -> Koblenz, Germany (def by Moraing in Final 2-6 1-6)
This Week -> Rennes Challenger
Travel Time -> approx 3.5 hours
Opponent -> Norbert Gombos
Odds (with Pinnacle at time of writing) -> Kenny De Schepper ($1.98) vs Norbert Gombos ($1.84)
Kenny has had a pretty brutal schedule from a pure travelling schedule. Looking at his 2018 to date:
Week 1 -> New Caledonia -> Lost in 3 sets in the Semi Final to Fritz
Week 2 -> Australian Open Qualifying -> Lost to Elias Ymer
Week 3 -> Koblenz Challenger -> Won through to the final in 4 consecutive 3 set matches, then lost 2-6 1-6 in the final to Moraing)
And that brings us to tonight. After a very busy 3 weeks filled with a lot of travel, and then a lot of long matches last week, it seemed as though Kenny ran out of legs. Now, Kenny is trying to back up and go again, as I would imagine he would be quite reluctant to pull out of a tournament of any kind in his home country. I am happy to oppose him against Gombos, who won their most recent match-up (albeit on clay), and in AO qualifying last year Gombos did serve for the match against De Schepper as well. With matches under his belt against De Schepper in recent time, he should adapt to the conditions and lefty serve relatively quickly.
For mine, I am happy to oppose De Schepper on this VERY heavy schedule. Gombos should be too strong, and as a result I will happily make a 5 unit play here.
SUGGESTED BET
5 units Gombos to defeat De Schepper at $1.83 at Pinnacle
Mats Morang
Last Week -> Koblenz, Germany (def De Schepper 6-2 6-1)
This Week -> Rennes Challenger
Travel Time -> approx 3.5 hours
Opponent -> Calvin Hemery
Odds (with Pinnacle at time of writing) -> Mats Moraing ($1.71) vs Calvin Hemery ($2.16)
It should definitely be noted that Moraing has had a pretty heavy schedule over the last month or so. Moraing has played 14 matches already this year – Bangkok 1 Challenger Final, Bangkok 2 Challenger Semi Final, Koblenz Final, so it has been a pretty busy, and successful month. The Koblenz title is probably the best title of his career, and his first Challenger Title – so there is a possibility of a bit of a letdown here. Coming off a long month, this is a position I am very happy to oppose Moraing, against a player who has put together some decent Challenger level form late last year (wins over Ebden, Millman x 2, Kwon Soon, Whittington). As a result, I am happy to take a 2.5 unit play on Hemery to get over the top of Moraing at $2.16 at Pinnacle.
SUGGESTED BET
2.5 units Hemery to defeat Moraing at $2.16 at Pinnacle
