For those who followed earlier in the week, this play is along very similar lines to my play on Ramanathan to defeat Baena earlier in the week. Ivashka made me look like a bit of a fool yesterday as he systematically dismantled Nagal in front of my very eyes, giving Nagal next to no chance of being competitive. If Ivashka serves and hits as powerfully and accurately as he did yesterday, I cannot see what Ojeda can do to be competitive here.
Ojeda is known predominantly for his claycourt prowess, where he had a very very respectable 2017, ending up inside the top 200. That being said, this is his first Challenger or above hardcourt tournament since March 2017, where he lost as a $1.15 favourite. He did have some ITF hardcourt success in 2016, but his skillset is well and truly suited to clay. My fear for him here is his shots will sit up a touch, right into the hitting zone of Ivashka.
Ivashka is certainly more proficient on hardcourt, as shown by his Challenger form late in the year, which included the Fergana title. As I said earlier, this match rests solely on the racquet of Ivashka, and I am very comfortable taking the -3.5 game handicap on offer here tonight.
Suggested Bet
4.5 units Ivashka -3.5 game handicap vs Ojeda at $1.94 at Pinnacle
