A general comment regarding the entire ATP Challenger Newport Beach tournament in general – a number of players have accepted into this tournament before their runs at the Australian Open. There are a couple of players in this tournament who managed to make it to the 2nd Round of the Australian Open (AUD$90,000 prizemoney) , and are now making the very quick turnaround to get to Newport, where the WINNER of the tournament is in line to win US$21,600 – so just keep in mind that players are backing up, and their isn’t quite the same incentive as there was last week. Just keep that in mind as you look at some of the odds this week.
Noah Rubin vs Tim Smyczek
This is a bit of a funny one, but I am opposing a player due to Fatigue Fader style reasons, against a player who you can forgive their most recent loss for the exact same reasons.
Let’s start with Noah Rubin. Rubin was absolutely annihilated in the first round on qualifying, winning only one game against McDonald, who went on to have a 5 set battle with Grigor Dimitrov in the 2nd round of the tournament. What we do need to keep in mind though is that the week before, Rubin did actually win the Noumea Challenger title the week before, defeating Janvier, Piros, Moutet, Sakharov and Fritz along the way. It is pretty solid form an I am happy to consider it coming into today’s match.
Tim Smyczek did what he needed to in making it to the 2nd round of the Australian Open, beating local boy Popyrin in straight sets before falling to Albert Ramos in straight sets in what was ultimately a pretty disappointing result for Tim. From there on Wednesday, Tim has had to recover from his match in gruelling heat, book a flight back to the US, find his way to Newport Beach, recover, and then find the motivation and go out an play in an arena far lower than he was playing at only a couple of days ago. I think this is a great letdown spot to attack for Smyczek, and considering Rubin has won a Challenger Title this year already, he is in decent enough form to capitalise on this opportunity in my opinion.
Suggested Bet
3.5 units Rubin to defeat Smyczek at $2.10 at Bet365
