DAY 7
R Nadal vs L Pouille
Happy to side with what appears to be quite a generous handicap for the world number 25 in this 4th round matchup.
Pouille has put together an exceptional year of tennis, with wins over Ferrer (x2), Gasquet, Tomic, Bautista Agut (2 days ago) and Goffin just to name a few.
Nadal looked relatively in control throughout most of his match against Kuznetsov, mainly due to 40 of Nadal’s 92 points won coming from Kuznetsov unforced errors. I’m not saying Nadal didn’t play well, but I don’t think he played as well as has been reported.
Saw a tweet (which I retweeted) buying into the Nadal hype, which stated this is the least number of games Nadal has lost at the US Open through three rounds. This may be true, but he has come up against 2 veterans of the tour in average form (Istomin/Seppi) and Kuznetsov who appeared overwhelmed at times on Arthur Ashe at night. I don’t think Nadal will get the same error-riddled performance from an opponent tonight.
Pouille was points away from an early exit this week, finding himself down 2 sets to 0 and Chiudinelli serving for the match, before turning the tables, winning the last 10 games in a row for the 5 set victory. He then backed that up with a come from behind victory against Bautista-Agut, dominating the final set for one of the biggest wins of his career.
I believe this match will be much tighter than the odds suggest. Pouille shouldn’t be double figure odds, and he shouldn’t be +8.5 game handicapped in my opinion. If Pouille can keep his unforced error count low and attack the second serve of Nadal, he should be able to keep this tight.
Suggested Bet
4.5 units Pouille +8.5 games at $1.92 at Pinnacle
0.5 units Pouille to win at $11 at Unibet
J Sock vs J Tsonga
This looks like it will be the battle of the forehands.
Sock was simply unbelievable in his win last round, beating former champ and one of the form players in Marin Cilic in straight sets, without facing a break point. It’s been two great performances back to back from Sock, after needing 5 sets against Fritz in the first round.
Tsonga has shown patches of great tennis over the last 3 rounds, however was helped into the 4th round by a less than 100% Kevin Anderson, who needed an MTO for a back issue during the match.
Whilst I am also a big fan of the overs bet in this match too, I can’t pass up the opportunity of backing Jack Sock with a plus handicap in this instance. If he plays anywhere near where he has the last 2 matches (vs Cilic in particular), then he should have enough to beat Tsonga on form, or at least keep it very tight.
Suggested Bet
5 units Jack Sock +2.5 games at $1.86 at Pinnacle
DAY 6
PC Busta vs D Thiem
Busta has put together possibly the best fortnight of hardcourt tennis in his career. The victory may be a bridge too far, but I really think this match will end up a lot closer than the odds suggest.
Suggested Bet
3 units over 37.5 games at $1.93 at Pinnacle
D Evans vs S Wawrinka
Evans has put together another impressive Grand Slam performance. The biggest issue with Evans is there is such a divide between his very best and very worst. Overall he seems to perform better as an underdog, especially on the big stage.
Again I’m not saying he will win here (though he really could if he plays his best tennis) but I do think he has quite a chance of forcing the over total games, especially after watching Stan struggle to break in sets 2 and 3 against Gianessi last round
Suggested Bet
5 units over 33.5 games at $1.82 at Pinnacle
1 unit Evans to win at $7.10 at Pinnacle
G Dimitrov vs J Sousa
How you could back Dimitrov at $1.30 on his form I’m not exactly sure. I was tempted significantly by Sousa here but I’m just not sure I can trust his body based on some injury niggles to be able to confidently back him here for more than a unit. That being said, If the wind does pick up as forecast, the more consistent Sousa may find himself in the second week of the Grand Slam if he can hold his nerve.
Suggested Bet
1 unit Sousa to defeat Dimitrov at $4 at Bet365/Pinnacle
