First Thoughts
Men
Either my perception of the depth in both the men’s and women’s draws has shifted dramatically in the last 6 months, or we as viewers have been provided with some very exciting, wide open draws on both sides.
Women
That is a lot of talent in the top half. I would love to be in the bottom half!
Big Winners
Men
Nadal, Wawrinka, Murray, Ferrer, Raonic – they are all on the opposite side of the draw to both Djokovic AND Federer.
Bernard Tomic – every chance of being in the 2nd week, and not just making up the numbers. He wasn’t lying when he said he has a good draw. The power of being seeded, Bernie!
Women
Serena, Venus and Victoria all seem to be spread out across the draw. If all fit, all should find themselves deep in the second week. But is Serena 100%?
Azarenka looks to be one of the biggest winners, opposite half to Serena, opposite quarter to Venus. Biggest threat in her quarter has to be Muguruza, overall she has to be very happy with how it has all panned out considering she is the number 14 seed.
First Round Matches to Watch
Men
Djokovic vs Chung – How many times will the Channel 7 commentary team tell us that Chung is 19? I will be very curious to see how Chung stands up on the Grand Slam stage against Novak. He impressed me at the US Open losing to Wawrinka in 3 tight tiebreak sets, so I will be interested to see how this match pans out.
Pospisil vs Simon – If Vasek was in better form I would say this has 4 or 5 setter written all over it, but it may not the case here. It is still a match I am very interested in watching.
Tsonga vs Baghdatis – Would have preferred this matchup 10 years ago, however still may be an interesting one to watch with the Cypriot crowd in full voice.
Kohlschreiber vs Nishikori – Not sure this is the name that Kei was hoping to see next to his in round 1. Again Kohlschreiber would have to play well above his current form to trouble Kei, but the potential is there.
Nadal vs Verdasco – A nice little early treat for the Melbourne crowd, and a nice early test for Rafa.
Gulbis vs Chardy – Two guys with unbelievable potential, with neither of them currently living up to expectations. Is $3 the only time Ernests is value these days?
Duckworth vs Hewitt – Poor Ducky. Will he be the man responsible for ending the career of Hewitt? Has Hewitt showed enough in his exhibitions to be justified as favourite in the 5 set format?
Jerzy Janowicz vs John Isner – Anyone for big serves? This looks like a match to just sit back and enjoy observing.
Gilles Muller vs Fabio Fognini – Another oddly appealing match, with the lefty-serving Muller up against the unpredictable Fabio. I can’t wait to watch this one.
Women
Serena Williams vs Camilla Giorgi – Not the easy first found match Serena would have been hoping for here. Is she fit? Is she justified at the short price round 1? Giorgi is a name you don’t really want to see next to you early in a Slam. Anything could happen here!
Bencic vs Riske – up and coming Bencic, who retired with illness in Sydney, against Auckland finalist Riske. Big match for round 1. Bencic is proven against the big names, but can she win these early matches that matter the most?
Hibino vs Sharapova – Hibino isn’t the worst player in the world, and we haven’t seen Maria on court yet. Could you take the very short odds on Maria? I certainly cannot.
Bouchard vs Krunic – Bouchard has had a packed week in Hobart after playing Auckland last week. Krunic, who has beaten the like of Kvitova at Grand Slam level, can play up to her opponent’s level. Can she pull off the upset?
Potential Future Bets and Trading Opportunities
Please find below a number of different options in different markets. Future betting isn’t normally my cup of tea but there appears to be some decent value around for some of the players I like this fortnight.
Feel free to have a read through and pick and choose the ones you like (if there are any you like!)
Men’s Winner
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer find themselves in the top half, so my attention turns to seeing what value is available in the bottom half.
Although they are scheduled to play each other relatively early on in the tournament (assuming they both make it that far), I think the meeting between Wawrinka and Raonic will go a long way to shaping the bottom half of the draw.
I am happy to take the following:
Milos Raonic | $45 | Unibet
Stanislas Wawrinka | $15 | Sportsbet
Bernard Tomic | $101 | Unibet
Whilst I understand Kyrgios is in the tough section of the draw, I think on his day he can beat Berdych and Cilic and Federer. I am still wondering whether it is better to take Nick pre-tournament or back along the way. I am leaning towards pre-tournament because no doubt there will be hype around him
Women’s Winner
My focus here rests in the weaker bottom half of the draw. There are three players that stand out to me above all others in that bottom half, and there are some juicy odds availiable for some of the players in the bottom half.
Looking at the stats profiles I posted earlier in the week, Venus Williams, Victoria Azarenka and Garbine Muguruza all have above average performance records in the last year on hardcourt against the bigger names.
I am happy to take the following:
Victoria Azarenka | $5 | Bet365
Venus Williams | $67 | Sportsbet
Garbine Muguruza | $15 | Sportsbet (smaller selection – see note below for details)
Of the shorter prices, I am happy to take the Azarenka odds on form. I think the Venus Williams odds represent value, and to round out Muguruza, on her day, can beat absolutely anyone. I am happy to play around Kerber, Halep and Pliskova in this bottom half, and side with these three proven at Grand Slam Level.
I was also very keen to back Belinda Bencic a week ago (to the point where I had written the entire article up), however I want to see how she goes in the early stages, then perhaps back her at long odds against Serena/Sharapova etc if the opportunity presents itself.
NOTE: Taking the $5 availiable for Muguruza to win her quarter on my estimations is far better value than Muguruza to win the tournament at $15
Quarter Winners
If backing players to win the tournament isn’t your style, there are other options to back the same players at shorter odds to win their quarter.
Men | Quarter 3 – Stan Wawrinka ($2.75 at Sportsbet) & Milos Raonic ($5.50 at Bet365) – I think Nadal is a touch too short here in comparison to these two, who have both won titles leading into the Open. Happy to take on Nadal at the price.
Men | Quarter 4 – Bernard Tomic ($15 – Bet365) Bernard has a favourable draw here, and I personally think the $15 to win the quarter is a bit of value. If he plays to his ranking, the two higher ranked player in his first 4 rounds is Andy Murray, and then most likely Ferrer/Isner. This is an amazing opportunity for Tomic, and am more than happy to take this price (and that is without Murray potentially being on standby if his wife gives birth early in the UK)
Women | Quarter 3 – Garbine Muguruza ($5 – Sportsbet) Statistically and from a value standpoint, Garbine at $5 to win her quarter is better value that $15 to win the tournament.
Women | Quarter 4 – Venus Williams ($9 at Bet365) I was impressed with her statistical output in the profile I posted earlier in the week Her biggest threat in the first 3 rounds appears to be the first round, so if she can find her way past Konta, she should be right in it when we get to the end of the quarter. Get the feel Venus will either be knocked out straight up, or be right in this deep into the second week.
Most Tournament Aces
Sportsbet -> Milos Raonic + Nick Kyrgios – I have high hopes for both players, and I am happy to nibble the $3.08 for Milos and the $6.75 for Nick, especially if he can scrape by Berdych if he makes the 3rd round
