The final round of the The Rugby Championship 2013 is upon us and after five intriguing rounds of tough, skillful and classy of southern hemisphere rugby it all comes down to a mouthwatering clash at Ellis Park in Johannesburg when the Springboks host the All Blacks. Last weekend, the Springboks claimed a convincing win over the Wallabies at Newlands Stadium and the All Blacks battled for 50 minutes against the Pumas before running away with the match in La Plata. What better way to finish than one versus two and three versus four. The Pumas versus the Wallabies in Rosario will be a fiery encounter as the home side continues to improve and the Wallabies continue to disappoint. Both clashes will be of the highest order, but for me a match that would be fitting of a Rugby World Cup final in England (2015) will settle the debate as to who is the best team in world rugby this year. I will be posting further tips throughout the course of the weekend so make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: New Zealand to win (x2) @ $2.06 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: NZ vs SA Total Points Over 44.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Australia to win @ $2.14 – Betfair
South Africa ($2.06) versus New Zealand ($2.06)
The world famous Ellis Park will play host to one of the biggest, if not the biggest matches in world rugby this year when the world cup winning All Blacks defend their Rugby Championship against the Springboks. The clash at Eden Park in Auckland three weeks ago was a spiteful encounter that saw referee Romain Pointe hand out four yellow cards and a red card and robbed fans of a potential rugby classic. This weekend, the added pressure of the Springboks having to win, score four tries and beat the All Blacks by more than seven is a big ask and a feat they haven’t achieved since their 40 – 26 win in 2004, coincidentally at the same venue. In some respects, I wish that a win would be enough in this encounter given the Rugby World Cup final feel this match has conjured up, but the All Blacks have been the best team in world rugby for a number of years and deserve the right to have one hand firmly on the trophy.
South Africa:
South Africa hit the ground running in Cape Town last weekend and raced out to a 20-point lead thanks to three Morne Steyn penalties and on try a piece to hooker and vice-captain Adriaan Strauss and the ever-improving Zane Kirchner. The relentless Springbok forward pack set the tone early on and the re-introduction of Fourie du Preez certainly has added another arrow to the home team’s bow with some accurate passing and decisive game management. Du Preez’s pass to setup Willie le Roux in the corner in the second half was evident of how much class he does possess and the huge gap between himself and regular Springbok halfback, Ruan Pienaar. Much to the dismay of the players and the Cape Town crowd, the Springboks did however fail to secure a much-needed bonus point and in turn, have made their job that much more difficult at Ellis Park. Captain Jean de Villiers said after the match that he has never felt so disappointed after beating the Wallabies, and even the series sweep and the reclamation of the Mandela Challenge Plate were overshadowed by the Springboks inability to make the most of their opportunities and the early momentum they so easily created.
Passionate Springbok coach Heyneke Meyer has made two changes to the lineup this week, both of which are in the forward pack. Bismarck du Plessis, the villain at Eden Park returns and lineout expert Juandre Kruger replaces the suspended Flip van Der Merwe. Franco van der Merwe is also in line to make his international debut off the bench after notching up 91 caps in Super Rugby. Outside centre JJ Engelbrecht will also be given until his team’s captains run on Friday to recover from a corked thigh, however, if he is unable to take the field, rising star Jan Serfontein will start in the number 13 jersey and Juan de Jong will be promoted to the bench. Nullifying the impact and continuous threats of Julian Savea and Ben Smith will be paramount if the Springboks are to succeed this weekend. Both players sit atop of the ‘defenders beaten’ category and Ben Smith has four more clean line breaks (9) than his nearest competitors in Bryan Habana and Jean de Villiers (5 each). The ball stealing ability of Bismarck du Plessis and Francois Louw will be indispensable this weekend given the speed the All Blacks play the game and that the breakdown is going to be a key component of the contest. The Springboks will look to keep it tight by dominating the scrums and the lineouts and they certainly won’t move away from their bash ‘em up approach that has worked so well for them in the past. They will bomb the All Blacks until it reaches a point where they need to keep the ball in hand and will then look to setup lineouts to use their formidable driving maul. I am interested to see the tactics that the Springboks adopt this weekend given the added pressure of having to score four tries. Will a win be enough for them or will they go for broke and potentially risk being on the wrong end of a lop-sided scoreboard.
New Zealand:
After last weekend’s 33 – 15 victory over the Pumas in La Plata, the All Blacks are now unbeaten in almost two years of the Rugby Championship. New Zealand can cap off another stellar campaign when they meet the Springboks in Johannesburg this weekend although it will be one of their biggest challenges in recent times given they haven’t won at Ellis Park since 1997 and have won just three times from 11 attempts at the venue. Looking at last week’s match against the Pumas, the All Blacks certainly didn’t have it all their own way in the first half giving away a number of penalties and free kicks, only a few of which were capitalised on by the home team. Midway through the first half, Julian Savea turned the tide in New Zealand’s favour when he pounced on a loose ball and raced 65 metres down the touchline to dot down having beaten two defenders in the process. On a damp pitch, there wasn’t much to write home about until the All Blacks extended their lead in the second half when flanker Sam Cane scored and a flash of Ma’a Nonu brilliance setup a rampaging Ben Smith moments later to have the match well and truly in the bag. With a vital bonus point for four tries on offer, the All Blacks pressed hard to no avail, before Ben Smith took matters into his own hands and barged over two defenders to score his second try of the match and a tournament-leading seventh try. Sam Cane had an exceptional game leading both the top tackler and top ball carrier stats for his team, but unfortunately for him, the great one Richie McCaw is back ready and raring to go against the Springboks this weekend and he will have to bide his time on the pine.
Coach Steve Hansen has recalled captain Richie McCaw this week who will play his 120th test match, yet surprisingly only his first at Ellis Park. With a CV boasting a Rugby World Cup, Super Rugby titles, Tri Nations/Rugby Championships, Bledisloe Cups, ITM Cups, just to name a few, this will be one of his final outstanding goals in a prolific career. The visitors will thrive on his leadership and his presence on the pitch and this can only bode well for their psyche. The other change sees prop Charlie Faumauina thrust into the Ellis Park cauldron in place of Owen Franks who sustained a minor leg injury in La Plata and he will certainly face a baptism of fire at the set piece. After a mammoth scrum from the Springboks against the All Blacks at Eden Park and the inefficiencies at the set piece in La Plata, New Zealand will be spending many hours on the scrum machine this week. The front row of Woodcock, Hore and Faumauina haven’t played too much rugby together, but the experience of the former two and the bulk of Retallick and Whitelock behind them should hold them in good stead. The physicality of the Boks will surely once again test the proven mettle of the Kiwis, but players like Richie McCaw, Liam Messam and Kieran Read are some of the toughest in the business. Additionally, the AB’s know that the Springboks have to throw the ball around this weekend and chance their arm if they want to win the championship. Playing attacking rugby has been engrained in the All Black psychology since day one, so one wouldn’t expect them to sit back, defend and let the Springboks take it to them. With a backline comprising of Aaron Smith, Cruden, Savea, Nonu, Conrad Smith, Ben Smith and Israel Dagg, there is an richness of guile, X factor, size and pace and any inaccuracies by the home side will be punished severely, as all teams before them have experienced this year.
Prediction:
Billed as “the rematch”, this is a test match of the highest order and one not to be missed. Being one of rugby’s great rivalries, the passion during the anthems and the subsequent Haka will have all rugby fans glued to their TV’s. Like Eden Park in Auckland or Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, Ellis Park is not a place visiting teams like to play, let alone succeed at. All eyes will be on referee Nigel Owens this weekend and it will be interesting to see how he deals with indiscretions because I can assure you that this matchup will be supercharged with emotions. The edge in the discipline department without doubt goes to the All Blacks given the reputation that the bashful Springboks have employed over a number of years. In essence, South Africa has to play the perfect game to raise the trophy at the culmination of the match and as the All Blacks have proved time and time again, when you are forced to play attacking rugby, there is no better team that makes you pay for your mistakes than the All Blacks. In saying that, this is a Springbok team that is slowly growing in confidence, but this weekend I predict an All Blacks win as the Springboks look more primed and likely to make an assault on the old enemy in England 2015.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win (x2) @ $2.06 – Betfair
Best Bet 1: New Zealand to win (x2) @ $2.06 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: Total Points Over 44.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Argentina ($2.00) versus Australia ($2.14)
A hostile environment at the Estadio Gigante de Arroyito (bit of a mouthful) in Rosario will welcome a mentally and physical bruised Australian team on Sunday morning Australian time. The Pumas will know that this might be one of their best ever chances to claim their maiden victory in The Rugby Championship having a record of zero wins and eleven losses over the last two seasons and just falling short 14 – 13 in Perth a few weeks ago. Spirited is a word that is often used synonymously with Argentine rugby and their display against the All Blacks last weekend in La Plata had an abundance of it, but once again they failed to pick up that highly sought after W. Their opponents this week Australia, travelled to Cape Town last weekend with an opportunity to turn their season around, however, it was more of the same from the visitors and a hapless opening quarter ensured that they were never in the contest. Although neither of these teams can make a dent on the Championship’s proceedings so far, a win for either team here is vital with the Autumn Internationals looming.
Argentina:
No one gave the Argentinians a chance last weekend against the reigning Rugby Championship holders, but after a convincing first half performance, the blue and whites only trailed 11 – 9. Nicholas Sanchez kicked three penalty goals on the back of a staunch Pumas scrum, however, the All Blacks found top gear in the second half and like many before them, there was very little the home side could do about it. The speed at which the game is played at The Rugby Championship level is lightning quick and the apparent lack of fitness in the dying stages of matches continue to be the Pumas worst nightmare. What is drummed into players on the training paddock is the ability to continue to perform under mental and physical duress, however this will only improve with the Pumas set to stay in the competition for many years to come.
After a positive inaugural season and a first round drubbing to South Africa that they would rather forget, Argentina has managed to challenge all three original Tri Nations opponents. They have diminished the gap on the scoreboards from cricket scores to tightly contested affairs and they are beginning to unearth talent through their provincial system and the IRB Under 20 World Cup that will hold them in good stead moving forward. Coach Santiago Phelan has shown faith in the majority of the squad that were defeated by the All Blacks in La Plata, with only two changes in the backline and one injury-enforced change up front. The hard-hitting Juan Figallo has been a late withdrawal and his place in the starting fifteen will be taken by his namesake, Juan Pablo Orlandi and recent Highlanders acquisition Matias Diaz will warm the reserves bench. A veteran of Pumas rugby Felipe Contepomi returns to the run on side and one of Argentina’s favourite sons behind the great halfback Agustin Pichot will become the most capped player for his country in history. Furthermore, in sad news for Argentine rugby, he is tipped to announce his international retirement at the end of the match. The other change sees Bath winger Horacio Agulla replace Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino.
Australia:
Australian rugby has been ordinary in 2013 after having such high hopes of winning another Lions series and a solid inaugural Rugby Championship campaign under coach Ewen McKenzie. The Wallabies stooped to a new low after one of the worst first half performances in their proud history. After getting on the scoreboard early thanks to a Christian Lealifano penalty, the Springboks rocketed to a 20-point lead inside the opening quarter thanks largely to some rudderless attack and inexcusable defence. After some necessary substitutions in the second half, the tide began to turn for the Wallabies as superstar Will Genia organised the attack and started to ‘balance’ out the territorial and possession statistics. His display sees him recalled this weekend and Wallabies utility Bernard Foley is also in line to make his international debut off the bench. Benn Robinson, recalled after initially not making Mckenzie’s first cut and Ben McCalman both made positive contributions, but the Reds debutant Chris Feauai-Sautia had a memorable cameo off the bench scoring a try thanks to a delicate cross-field chip by the enigmatic Quade Cooper.
After the match in Cape Town, Australian coach Ewen McKenzie stated that he feels like he is saying the same thing week-in and week-out about the performance of the Wallabies. I can agree with him here and there are certainly some parallels with the Highlanders in this year’s Super Rugby competition. Both teams have star-studded lineups, but huge error counts and ill-discipline continue to plague any forward momentum. When Quade Cooper mentioned during the week that fans should expect things to get worse before they get better, to me it signified that there is a huge amount of disbelief amongst the squad and the rut is far more substantial than what fans actually think it is. Having watched the match in Cape Town with some proud Australian supporters, it was startling to see many of them walk away from the television before the first half even ended. This match is certainly one that the Wallabies could look back on as the turning point, but they have to be ready for the scrum challenge because the weight of a nation will be pushing against them in Rosario.
Prediction:
It is a battle of the desperates this week and a lively hometown crowd will do everything in their power (including using laser pointers) to help propel their team from the foot of The Rugby Championship ladder. The Pumas are a team that are slowly developing into a class outfit, whereas the Wallabies need to produce the goods to stop the rot and their uncontrollable spiral down the world rankings. The Wallabies will resort back to their victory over the Pumas in Perth a few weeks ago and the fact that they will be looking for their third consecutive win on Argentinian soil to instil confidence in their squad, but it will need to be a much more polished performance than any of their previous matches this year if they are to leave Rosario with their heads held high. For me, this is a game that the Wallabies know they need to win and their big name players like Horwill, Genia and Adam Ashley-Cooper will have a huge impact on proceedings.
Predicted result: Australia to defy the odds and win @ $2.14 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Australia to win @ $2.14 – Betfair
Author
Glenn Paton has followed rugby union for 15 years and has expert knowledge on the game freely committing to over 500 viewing hours a year. Having played with and against some current Super Rugby players and International superstars, he understands the game, the players and the laws inside out. Having been born in South Africa, spent time in New Zealand and currently living in Australia, Glenn lives and breathes rugby. With so many different tournaments happening around the world simultaneously and the addition of Rugby Sevens to the Olympic program, there are always plenty of healthy betting options available. An obsession, a passion, call it what you will, Glenn enjoys sharing his insight, opinions and predictions with anyone who wants to listen.
Specialities: Super Rugby, 6 Nations, Rugby Championship, International Tests, Currie Cup, ITM Cup, Rugby Sevens
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